michsnowfreak

I'd be interested to see stats on its performance the past 5-8 years or so. Seems it's definitely less accurate than it used to be, even if it still is the best model of the group.

The Euro used to be called king. For several years that has not been the case. I do not at all expect models to ever be perfect. But how can models get worse at technology advances?

Ah ok. Trended away from here lol. But it is nice to see RELATIVE consistency with the models days out. Hopefully a sign!

Ive read accounts. It was not a large snowstorm by any means, but a rapid temp drop, rain turned to snow and temps got deadly cold. The artic blast was very severe in an otherwise tame winter.

Just curious, what trend are you alluding to? That the models dont lose a system?

Wow my memory is like steel when it comes to actual past weather, but like mush when it comes to what models predicted lol. I honestly do not remember cold being forecast last December. Usually there are several different routes we can take for a respectable winter if it won't be great, but strong ninos are the ONE and only scenario i go into winter cringing.

Lol I was joking as he is a known troll. He will disappear until warmth surfaces and then he will be back. I may occasionally comment on snowman or bluewave for their warm bias, but at least they add to the discussion. Huge difference between having a warm (or cold) bias and just being a troll.

I can't stand hype either way, but it's no different than some of the Twitter stuff you share of the opposite extreme. Though honestly anyone who uses Twitter as their weather source are just like the people who use their phones AI forecast graphics as their main weather source. They'll forget once it changes the next day.

Idk qgomega promised a RECORD WARM start to December just a few days ago.

The last 10 years have basically averaged around avg for snowfall here. Not being in the direct snowbelt, we still get a boost from increased overall precipitation. So basically, the last 10 years have seen solidly above avg temps but still near avg snowfall. The previous 10 years saw temps slightly below avg but snowfall well above avg. At Detroit officially the most recent 30-yr avg (1991-20) is 45.0”, but the longterm period-of-record avg is 41.0”. The last 10 years at Detroit have averaged 40.9” (2014-15 thru 2023-24). The 10 years before that at DTW averaged 54.9” (2004-05 thru 2013-14). Fun fact- 2024-25 will be my 30th winter measuring snowfall in Wyandotte, MI (first at my parents house then at my own, stayed in the same city). So once this winter is over I will have a long enough period of record for a 30-yr avg lol. Last winter was the only well-below avg snow season of this post-2015 era everyone likes talking about lol. This is why I say over and over....Im not as worried about temps as I am precip and patterns in the Great Lakes region. I definitely prefer cold, but it is not the end all. I should also add, not just an increase in LES for snowbelts like you, but warmer winters also tend to give us some real dynamic winter storms (we have had quite a few low ratio snows that, had it been 10-1 and a few degrees colder, would really beef up the snow totals).

Of course it goes both ways, though on this board specifically I don't see the cold biased forecasters. There's a difference between liking/wanting cold and snowy vs forecasting it.

Very well said, and my thoughts exactly!

Ive noticed with some on here, warm solutions on longterm guidance (even 384 hr op maps) are gospel and cold solutions should be discounted for their unreliability. Looking at todays 12z ensembles, nothing screams "RECORD warm start to December" like an ensemble mean of solidly colder than avg 850s to start December.

I disagree on January. I'm really liking January here, and while it will probably be somewhat milder than normal on the east coast it's probably your best winter month this season. I think @40/70 Benchmarkalso thinks Jan will be be your best month. A few months ago I thought Dec might be great and Jan would suck (going by some previous nina years) but I've completely flipped recently. Dec looks to have it's chances but should be the least favorable of the 3 winter months. Cfs and some other models have been steadfast on western Canada just loaded with cold by January.

You seem to be quite knowledgeable, but honestly, it seems crazy to me to pull the plug on an entire winter on the east coast if you don't see sustained cold in November. It just doesn't make sense. You talk about 16-17 frequently...well there was plenty of cold from Thanksgiving to Christmas. How did the rest of that winter work out? And also I do not see any signs of record warmth starting December.