Jim Marusak

quick question here. a bit more theoretical, but also maybe affecting the storm about to loop up and hit the eastern great lakes and the northeast. Given that explosion in the volcano down in Tonga overnight, I'm seeing reports of sonic booms heard from it as far away as the south coast of Alaska, and pressure waves from the blast being seen on barometers all the way into southern Ontario and Quebec, upstate NY, and New Orleans. And I'm sure plenty of those ripples are also aloft. So, what will those pressure waves do if they're picked up by the models? and what could those waves do to the synoptic environment of the upcoming east coast storm given how far they've propagated? could it actually shift the path of the storm directionally just a little bit in a way models may not pick up?

thinking river-problem-wise, here's where I am seeing the most potential river flooding flooding problems, given the latest ensembles and latest op runs. Susquehanna River - south of Bloomsburg/Sunbury gauge-points. Delaware River - near/south of Allentown/Bethlehem/Easton Lehigh River - All points south of Francis Walter Dam Schuykill river - full length all north/central NJ river systems away from the Delaware Basin Potomac River - all points downstream from Cumberland Md, including DC. this doesn't include local creeks and streams, where local heavy rainfalls will make things more problematic, for shorter times, as well as urban street flooding.

btw, The Waffle House Index just went thru the roof.

and as I type that, Watch 399 is out. counties in MN involved, roughly DLH to STP and ANE (not including MSP). WI Counties, DLH area to GRB, LSE to MKE, including MSN, EAU, and AUW. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0399.html

ok. just was wondering. because those RAOBS might be what is the final piece they're looking at (as well as the storms up in NW Itasca County).

off the MPX RAOB, or INL?

so, your thoughts... are we waiting on the 00Z RAOBS for the watch issuance, or for more TCU's to go up quickly?

that downtown site is in Central Park (KNYC). but I would think the TV newspeople would have a handle on that (unless they are completely on their first week in the market). There's some real close obs sites to the city of Boston that can lay out the sea breeze fairly well for them. And if they had to, I would think the DoT in Mass would also allow their cameras and road sensors to be included to show the sea breeze depth.

i know that coastal site can be a total pain when the breeze is coming in off the bay. But where in Boston would you put the official site for the city, if you had a choice? Downtown Crossing? Boston Common? the Back Bay? Fenway Park? somewhere else in the city?

thanks. hope they can relocate it soon, whether to Logan Airport or at the NWS office near Norton.

quick question. are there any RAOBS going up from Chatham MA any more? did they relocate the UA station to the Boston NWS office? or something else wrong? thanks.

if anyone didn't take a look at the VAD/VWP from BMX and MXX yet, please look at the trend over the last hour. dynamics are improving with time.

yea, it's starting to look like the initial warm sector wave is diminishing. But the 2nd, frontal wave of strong storms will be developing within the next few hours. we're not done yet.

looking at the frames when the outflow first started getting sucked into the northern cell to the latest frames where the cell south of Claude just went ballistic the last few frames, I wonder if maybe the upper cell ingesting that southern cell's outflow may have actually given the southern storm better life by allowing a freer outflow channel aloft compared to when the storms were back by I-27.

latest velocity signatures down between Lake Tanglewood and TX 207 looks multi-vortex again. must be a real impressive show. but I saw a lot of chasers on the GR-3 moving from the town of Claude to the west of the storm. the way it's traveling, it almost looks like they should have stayed put near Claude as the storm will be in perfect view from there and safely to the west.