hobbes9

Euro GraphCast is what he's talking about. You can also read more about it here.

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GEFS snow mean progression. Didn't realize 6z was as good as it was?

Generally I'm a lurker as well, but that was 21 years and multiple versions of the models ago. Impossible? No. But less likely than such things used to be. A few years ago, you could ALWAYS count on the west trend and knew where the "good spots" were 2, 3, 4, and 5 days out. Computing, our understanding of atmospheric dynamics, and all of that put into the models, have almost all gotten better. If I'm gonna hang my hopes on something, it ain't gonna be that.

986mb over HGR at 18z. Interesting when compared to 12z.

Jan '96 no matter what.

While waiting on the 0z GFS, I haven't found anything else that puts things side-by-side like this. Helps compare the models QPF outputs (as I've always been a visual person).

Euro complete whiff on Wave 2 for EZF and north...

Yes please and thank you.

Had a rookie/lurker question to ask looking at the 500mb map. It looks as if the true cold is kind of walled off at/above the great lakes which would make the "source" of cold the no man's land between the lakes and the system as it moves through the area? If I'm reading this right, that would mean there's not much to stop it from drawing in more warm air if the system continues to amplify as it moves up the coast and temps would at best be marginal? Thank you all for the knowledge you continue to provide.

I found the ice interesting as well.

Mixing along 95 on the UKIE looks to keep totals down on the clown maps from 78-90. QPF looks quite good and uniform. Generally 1-1.5" for the forum?

GEFS trend pushing QPF a bit farther south as well. 1" line goes from central PA to almost the M/D line over the last few runs.

Para only really shows the WAA with no coastal? ETA: some backside, perhaps .1-.2" QPF? Decent WAA QPF though.