ladyjmayo

Good to hear!!

Yep. Went right over my house NE of Kingston and must have touched down just after it passed me as there was a debris signature about a half-mile north of me. Too close for comfort!

So true. And then give an ambiguous statement about precip totals.

1.4 in mby so far in Roane County.

Yes. This was after it was a confirmed EF-2. They were just saying this is the first one ever in February in Morgan Co.

Per MRX: In Morgan County, we have never had a confirmed tornado in February. The last February tornado we had in our forecast area was in 2011. Since 1950, we've only had 11 confirmed tornadoes in February, plus a Bradley County one in 1942.

You're getting all the fun tonight!

Looks like it went south of Sunbright. WVLT newsroom said they have reports of damage and MRX saw a debris signature. Any damage at your house @Holston_River_Rambler

Same. Just praying it doesn't turn to sleet next.

Yep, in Roane county too. Finally nice big flakes at a moderate rate. Forecast is now saying 2-4 today and another 1-3 tonight. Strange that they lowered totals briefly, but it looks like we're back baby!

I think I might be. Flakes have turned almost microscopic and slowed WAY down east of Kingston. Still at a light dusting. Now MRX is forecasting 1 to 3 inches here. Arrgghh

Just east of Kingston on I-40, teeny tiny flakes coming down heavy. Like @Wurbus it took about 30 minutes to get a light dusting. It's sticking to roads and grassy surfaces on contact.

Glad it went well! Pain sucks. Keep whatever meds they gave you in your system. It is easier to KEEP pain under control than it is to GET it under control. I hope you can sit next to a window and enjoy the snow.

They are having IT troubleshoot it. Hopefully it will be fixed shortly.

IT issue. They are working on it.

I don't think I've seen these until this year. But I was out of commission for the big event last year (in ICU with Covid), so they may have had them and I just missed them.

New graphics From 3 pm MRX Winter Briefing:

We're in for it now. Jim Cantore is wandering the streets of downtown Nashville.

I must have missed the Canadian models lowering the QPF. I thought they were part of the amped crowd. Maybe that and the Euro are what MRX is looking at then. They did say 3-6 inches for all of E TN with higher amounts possible. So they are at least inching that way. New map JUST came out:

They have not quite bought into the HRRR and GFS yet, but are talking about increasing snow amounts later if there is consistency in the model runs.

At least this way they can't be wrong!

029 FXUS64 KMRX 082050 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 350 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 248 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025 1. Light snow will continue the rest of the day and likely into the overnight hours. 2. Cold Temperatures overnight. 3. Slowly clearing skies overnight leading to sunnier skies tomorrow. Discussion: Currently a tricky forecast with light snow continuing across much of northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. A weak northwest flow event is ongoing with cloudy conditions across Kentucky, the Virginias, and Middle/East Tennessee. These cloudy conditions are important because this is where moisture is trapped in the lowest levels of the atmosphere and the cold air is wringing out any moisture as light snow. Really no models are picking up on this, so confidence is low on when and how strong this snow will be. However past experience indicates that as long as we have northwest winds and cloudy skies, we have the chance to see flurries. Clouds are slowly from the west/northwest, and we`ll eventually go mostly clear skies overnight. But until that happens we`ll keep the flurries in the forecast, which currently is into the overnight hours. Accumulations are expected to be really minor if any, and mostly confined to the grassy and elevated surfaces, but the higher elevations in northeast TN and southwest VA could see light accumulations on roadways. Overnight with the clearing skies we`ll see temperatures drop several degrees colder than what we experienced this morning with temperatures dropping into the teens or single digits area-wide. Winds should remain fairly light overnight, which will keep the wind chill values close to the actual temperatures, but the highest elevations of the southern Appalachians could see near zero or below zero wind chill values for a few hours overnight. Tomorrow will be another cold, but sunnier day after the clouds will have almost completely cleared out with temperatures near what we experience today. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 248 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025 Key Messages: 1. A winter storm will impact the area Friday into Saturday with widespread accumulating snow and possible mixed precipitation. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for the entire forecast area. 2. Light snow possible early next week due to a clipper type system. 3. Temperatures will remain below normal for the term. Forecast calls for above freezing highs Sunday and Monday, but will be highly dependent on snowpack. Discussion: Just to get the Day 4 and onward done and out of the way to focus on Friday, dry weather and cold is what can be expected Sunday. Temperatures that day may also be impacted by snowpack, meaning temperatures will feel colder. Monday into Wednesday, possible brushing of a clipper type system may bring additional snow to the area. Models in pretty good agreement, but will worry about that later. Friday into Saturday will be an area-wide winter storm for our entire forecast area. Everyone can expect wintry precipitation. BLUF: The forecast challenge - WAA from the Gulf and downsloping over the Appalachians will complicate the total snow forecast. Snow amounts could possibly be much less for the southern valley and foothills of the Southern Appalachians. Tonight/early Thursday a low pressure center will develop just off the eastern Mexico coast. The center will be near the TX/LA coast around late Thursday. Moisture will stream north from the SW as the center moves from the Florida Panhandle to the Outerbanks region by early Saturday. Models have backed off on this system being a Nor`easter for New England and will just move off of the Mid- Atlantic out to sea. We can be confident that a system will impact us, but we will be on the cusp of a hardly discernible 850 low. Above 0C does poke into parts of the south bordering GA and AL, and also the foothills of the Appalachians. Confidence much lower on snowfall amounts, dominant p-types for certain areas, and timing of any sort of switchover. There could also be the possibility of a gradient of higher snowfall amounts vs. lower snowfall amounts. P-types Temperatures will be cold Friday morning for snow most definitely, but as we head into the afternoon, some warming to possibilty above freezing in isolated spots and warm air aloft, may make the precipitation types vary, cutting snow totals considerably. This is evident in models and model soundings across the southern tier of the forecast area and through the foothills part of the Appalachians. Southerly flow and a tightening gradient will bring a low-end mountain wave across the east Tennessee mountains. Between 21Z to 03Z time frame 40 to 50KT at least according to the NAM, will dry things some between the valley and higher terrain. Warming due to downsloping will also complicate things p-type and amount-wise. Due to all of this in mind, our confidence level on storm total amounts is medium about 3 out of 5. Snow SLR`s will be about 10:1 and lower at the start of the event, so can expect a wet and heavy snow. With time as things cool, SLR`s will rise and can see the type of snow lighten some with less moisture. Can expect the first reflectivities of snow between 6-8 AM EST, but it may take a bit of time for the column to moisten and actually reach the ground as RH`s down south are forecast to be around 60% 12Z Fri. Snowfall probabilities will increase from SW to NE throughout the day Friday, reaching the Knoxville area by late morning to noon, and early afternoon for far NE TN and SW VA. Our latest storm total snow calls for the highest amounts (3 to 5 inch range) to be expected north of I-40/west of I-81 so basically the northern plateau. Higher elevations of the southern plateau and from the Smoky`s south into SW NC may also see the greatest amounts. It`s possible a gradient may form somewhere along I-40 north to I-81. Snow will begin to taper SW to NE late Friday night into Saturday morning, with snow possibilty continuing for the typical NW flow higher terrain into early afternoon Saturday. Temperatures Temperatures may be impacted during and after the event as snowpack can make surface temperatures much colder than what models can depict. Edged lower with a blend of different guidances to bring down temperatures during this time, as NBM may be too warm and not be factoring in snow on the ground. &&

Apparently it is mostly because anything that falls is immediately sticking to the roads because of the cold temps. Still might see up to an inch in some areas over the course of the day.