ladyjmayo

At least this way they can't be wrong!

029 FXUS64 KMRX 082050 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 350 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 248 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025 1. Light snow will continue the rest of the day and likely into the overnight hours. 2. Cold Temperatures overnight. 3. Slowly clearing skies overnight leading to sunnier skies tomorrow. Discussion: Currently a tricky forecast with light snow continuing across much of northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. A weak northwest flow event is ongoing with cloudy conditions across Kentucky, the Virginias, and Middle/East Tennessee. These cloudy conditions are important because this is where moisture is trapped in the lowest levels of the atmosphere and the cold air is wringing out any moisture as light snow. Really no models are picking up on this, so confidence is low on when and how strong this snow will be. However past experience indicates that as long as we have northwest winds and cloudy skies, we have the chance to see flurries. Clouds are slowly from the west/northwest, and we`ll eventually go mostly clear skies overnight. But until that happens we`ll keep the flurries in the forecast, which currently is into the overnight hours. Accumulations are expected to be really minor if any, and mostly confined to the grassy and elevated surfaces, but the higher elevations in northeast TN and southwest VA could see light accumulations on roadways. Overnight with the clearing skies we`ll see temperatures drop several degrees colder than what we experienced this morning with temperatures dropping into the teens or single digits area-wide. Winds should remain fairly light overnight, which will keep the wind chill values close to the actual temperatures, but the highest elevations of the southern Appalachians could see near zero or below zero wind chill values for a few hours overnight. Tomorrow will be another cold, but sunnier day after the clouds will have almost completely cleared out with temperatures near what we experience today. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 248 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025 Key Messages: 1. A winter storm will impact the area Friday into Saturday with widespread accumulating snow and possible mixed precipitation. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for the entire forecast area. 2. Light snow possible early next week due to a clipper type system. 3. Temperatures will remain below normal for the term. Forecast calls for above freezing highs Sunday and Monday, but will be highly dependent on snowpack. Discussion: Just to get the Day 4 and onward done and out of the way to focus on Friday, dry weather and cold is what can be expected Sunday. Temperatures that day may also be impacted by snowpack, meaning temperatures will feel colder. Monday into Wednesday, possible brushing of a clipper type system may bring additional snow to the area. Models in pretty good agreement, but will worry about that later. Friday into Saturday will be an area-wide winter storm for our entire forecast area. Everyone can expect wintry precipitation. BLUF: The forecast challenge - WAA from the Gulf and downsloping over the Appalachians will complicate the total snow forecast. Snow amounts could possibly be much less for the southern valley and foothills of the Southern Appalachians. Tonight/early Thursday a low pressure center will develop just off the eastern Mexico coast. The center will be near the TX/LA coast around late Thursday. Moisture will stream north from the SW as the center moves from the Florida Panhandle to the Outerbanks region by early Saturday. Models have backed off on this system being a Nor`easter for New England and will just move off of the Mid- Atlantic out to sea. We can be confident that a system will impact us, but we will be on the cusp of a hardly discernible 850 low. Above 0C does poke into parts of the south bordering GA and AL, and also the foothills of the Appalachians. Confidence much lower on snowfall amounts, dominant p-types for certain areas, and timing of any sort of switchover. There could also be the possibility of a gradient of higher snowfall amounts vs. lower snowfall amounts. P-types Temperatures will be cold Friday morning for snow most definitely, but as we head into the afternoon, some warming to possibilty above freezing in isolated spots and warm air aloft, may make the precipitation types vary, cutting snow totals considerably. This is evident in models and model soundings across the southern tier of the forecast area and through the foothills part of the Appalachians. Southerly flow and a tightening gradient will bring a low-end mountain wave across the east Tennessee mountains. Between 21Z to 03Z time frame 40 to 50KT at least according to the NAM, will dry things some between the valley and higher terrain. Warming due to downsloping will also complicate things p-type and amount-wise. Due to all of this in mind, our confidence level on storm total amounts is medium about 3 out of 5. Snow SLR`s will be about 10:1 and lower at the start of the event, so can expect a wet and heavy snow. With time as things cool, SLR`s will rise and can see the type of snow lighten some with less moisture. Can expect the first reflectivities of snow between 6-8 AM EST, but it may take a bit of time for the column to moisten and actually reach the ground as RH`s down south are forecast to be around 60% 12Z Fri. Snowfall probabilities will increase from SW to NE throughout the day Friday, reaching the Knoxville area by late morning to noon, and early afternoon for far NE TN and SW VA. Our latest storm total snow calls for the highest amounts (3 to 5 inch range) to be expected north of I-40/west of I-81 so basically the northern plateau. Higher elevations of the southern plateau and from the Smoky`s south into SW NC may also see the greatest amounts. It`s possible a gradient may form somewhere along I-40 north to I-81. Snow will begin to taper SW to NE late Friday night into Saturday morning, with snow possibilty continuing for the typical NW flow higher terrain into early afternoon Saturday. Temperatures Temperatures may be impacted during and after the event as snowpack can make surface temperatures much colder than what models can depict. Edged lower with a blend of different guidances to bring down temperatures during this time, as NBM may be too warm and not be factoring in snow on the ground. &&

Apparently it is mostly because anything that falls is immediately sticking to the roads because of the cold temps. Still might see up to an inch in some areas over the course of the day.

I'll second that!

I've been wondering that myself!

I think MRX is going to hold off until morning so they have a better idea of what areas will be impacted.

5 inches just east of Kingston. Some may have blown off already...it is quite breezy!

The 12km NAM. But I think it is just that it looks drier in the southern valley. The snow totals just had that "look" to me. But that was before the caffeine kicked in. I have just been warm nosed to death in Roane county so now I see that boogeyman everywhere!

Good. Those things are stinky! (I have two in my front yard)

Getting ready to read the disco now, but my jaw dropped when I saw the quintessentially conservative MRX actually issued a WSW for even the valley. I thought it must be one of two things...either the models are amping up OR it is the end of this winter season and if they are wrong, no one will remember by next winter.

That would be a GREAT birthday present to me!

Finally made it to 1 inch IMBY on I-40 a few miles east of Kingston. I am right in that heavy band, so it is coming down pretty well, but very small flakes. I just saw that rarest of rare beasts...a snow plow...scraping in front of my house on Lawnville Rd. Oh my!

MRX just issued a Special Weather Statement for Roane County and counties south of here. Probably just to be cautious and at least mention the possibility of a dusting to an inch. I really have no idea what to expect here. I have a feeling someone, somewhere is going to get a surprise or two.

I think I am going to try the pink Brandywine again. I bought seeds from Baker Creek Heirloom Seeds (rareseeds.com) last year but out of the 16 seeds I planted there was only one survivor and it just never did very well. I got a couple of tomatoes from it. I am not sure what went wrong, I’ve had GREAT germination rates from most of the other seeds I’ve bought from them. I will be planting Bonny Best, which usually produce like gangbusters for me. Also Rutgers, Beefsteak, Pantano Romanesco, Mortgage Lifter, and Hartman’s Yellow Gooseberry (VERY prolific and delicious yellow cherry tomato). I usually like to try one or two new varieties per year as an experiment. I think I am going to try one called “Break O Day” this year that is supposed to be a “workhorse” of a tomato. We’ll see. I will probably be starting the seeds this weekend. The past several years they have been ready to put in the garden after about 6 weeks, so hopefully that will be about right.

Stove, what varieties of tomatoes are you growing this year?