pasnownut

Transient cold shots much the same as we are seeing now. We need wholesale changes discussed yesterday to get cold to hold. Sorry, just not gonna do it in current view. Yes, like next week, there can be well timed events to keep hope alive, but verbatim, your cold on the 13th is replaced w/ SE flow on the 15th w/ pig ridge. As much as I HATE being a Debbie, I'm just trying to temper hopes and expectations for a little while. There absolutely can be an event that gets us and everyone can roast the hell outta me. No problem, but as sad as it is to type it, I'm standing where I am until larger changes start to show upstream.

Went through your area yesterday and was surprised to see snow on the ground. I’d say between northumberland and Danville is when it faded to nothing but a trace in shaded areas.

I was watching the HP on the GFS and it was way too far east and return flow cooked us. Lets hope for this one to trend better.

Arguably one of the more arrogant personas I've ever come across. I'm all about good spirited debate, but when someone constantly speaks in "absolute" terms.....that's just poor form.

Duly noted....I try to forget about that MA forum persona as much as possible.

LOL. Cant wait for that one.... Models typically correct to tellies, and not tellies to the models.....and have shown this many times when that a look from a week out sometimes goes poof....as its often just a correction to the base state. NAO next week shows enough variance to keep an eye out but overall....its shades closed for me and A/C for Trainer. Those who "know me" here, know I rarely do this, cause I like some here love the search for snow.....that said, the ROI just looks negligible at best. Props if you find a way to the promise land though....I'll be first in line to follow pal, and if you see something, please share it, cause I'm happy to add it to my bag of snow trix.

It is definitely no longer the king....just a jester like the others.

NBD. I think we both know enough to not put all eggs in ANY one basket, but as I prefer medium/long range, I'll say that the tellies have done far more right than wrong when using a blend. MJO in 3-4-5 just doesnt get it done without help from AO/NAO domains (again, NAO is saving grace for next week - IF and only IF the neutral looks have any merit). Otherwise please break out your secret santa, and let him beat up on the voodo doll.

Then I hope you have a bigger voodoo doll than Voyager, or some other secret source that we don't know about, cause the argument towards warm....as much as I hate it.....cannot be passed by, and won't correct in 4-5 hours. Subtle differences (NAO as its the only tellie that can save mid next week)may help, but the big picture is not a pretty one, and history tells many of us that things are not aligned for the next couple weeks. Sure hope we can sneak something in next week though.

AO heading + NAO heading neutral, but likely +ish PNA heading - MJO looping twds 6 and hopefully 7 says I picked a nice time to enjoy the snow, and looks like if verified, I'll have much time to not look at every model run for a while and get to other enjoyable things. CMC is best case as bubbles stated a bit ago, but not likely as its not representative of what telllies suggest should happen. Only way CMC has a prayer is if the NAO takes the low road and stays neutral for a bit. -PNA isnt the kiss of death if we have AO helping, but thats not looking good, so trough in the west looks believable. Voyager musta got another voodo doll and gave it to Canderson to poke at while he's on vacation. Just dont let the cat play w/ it when pins are in it.

I can see that. You might have a whack at your 60. I hope cloud deck hangs tight here in LSV.

I've just spent the last 5 days w/ snow on the ground (4" when I left the cabin yesterday). Was great to play in it. Hoping Blizz and Loosetoe are onto some fun for next week. I peeked at GEFS ad did not like the look at the end, but really have not had any time to dive into where we may be headed. Hoping to do that this weekend.

thanks....was scratching my head. Think he might be practicing a bit early w/ the egg nog.

FWIW (and that's not a lot), if one looks at @paweathers 6z GFS run, it would likely give many snow weenies some morning wood.... Not a lock and not likely to work out as depicted, but takeaway verbatim would be several chances coming up in early december with vorts passing thru every few days. Nice early winter start IMO. Ens guidance not as robust for clipper as Op closes off and digs a bit while Ens stays open (which would argue for a norther correction). Beyond that....I just like the look and will keep an eye (or both) on next week while freeezin arse off in treestand in search of venison. Not going to be on much over the next week, but I'll be looking from afar....with that said, despite this shitstorm we still are working through, we all still have a bunch to be thankful for. Focus on what you are fortunate to have, and worry much less about what you don't. There is always someone who would gladly trade places with you. Happy and healthy Thanksgiving to all. Nut

Wasn’t a dumpster fire. Sorta shocked me. Guess he doesn’t care about keeping his warmies happy. Kinda impressed actually.

Duly impressed. I'm not stranger to gettin nasty looks from my wife as well, and yeah, I get it, being in sales is often times akin to being an HR manager.

dude....that's the best one I've read in a long time. Well played!

I dare you to tell your wife that....

You know mw well pal.. Sure hope so.

Gut says lake effect for next Mon/Tues will likely give some N and W peeps a white turk day.

well stated...

I'll pretend its snow and pick my "favorite" map. Here's what I got for ya.

they do that so they can show a + for both . I've had that damn sore throat for about a week now. I'm always achy so that doesn't count...lol. My temp is usually low grade anyways. Maybe I really am cool.

No i get it, but just reading the wording made my type what i did, but in summary........... BLAME THE MEDIA?? I'm down w/ that. Fin hypsters.

hoping a repeat of today w/ cloud deck helping, and pre frontal clouds to thwart our run at 7 0. I'm ready to not see those numbers till next May.