pasnownut

yeah i was wondering what you were looking at. looks like SLP held serve. Slightly deeper cold pool may thwart norther progression, but GFS has struggled w/ cold, so that is also partly why i think north option is in play. 500s have subtle changes but not enough to get cranked up abt. Fun all the same.

3k has SLP a bit more wester and huggin coast which likely helps as well.

I said it last week and will stand (or fall) on it. NAO is the sponsor of this potential event, as it gives us the window to keep the cold close enough for the midweek. It spikes up from Wed and beyond. IF the upward options would have verified, this storm would be headed for Chicago.

You keep wishing this away and you may get your wish, but I think HP trending NE (which fits the pattern IMO), gives this thing room to come north, as there is no big block to the N forcing this south. I think a north trend is likely based on pattern. Just my .02's tho

NAM ow In fairness..plenty of GFS snowmaps have come and gone. Takaway, is its a tool, and one that looks good right now, so weenie rule #1 comes into play. Hug the one that gives you what you want.

Definately a nice uptick in qpf. I, like bubbles, think the NAM bashing is often overstated. It's not too dissimilar to other looks right now, and as we have a decent HP location (trending further NE and slightly weaker), it give this think a little room to come north IMO. My only worry is the how far NW the appreciable qpf gets w/ SLP so far south.

If one looks at the 2m temp anomalies on GFS Ens, its a blood bath east of the Miss. Twds the end the cold is pressing, but looking further upstream, there is not a large cold source to keep a sustained feed coming. Likely to change in the next week or so, but that's what i see (and worry about) for now.

Sure hope so. Would be a nice start to the season down here. Going to dig it a bit later to see how long the warmup will last post midweek. Nice to be tracking something (although I've been rather busy w/ other stuff) and really am just reading more than watching models of late.

At 72 on nooner Nam, if one toggles through last several runs, the tucked look is coming around. Also like the HP location. GFS and NAM mirror in location at that timestamp. I think trainer may have a storm.

If the "normal" north trend commences....it'll be congrats Wspt....and I'll be moist n not white.

said something about this the other day, and think that this is largely why we have a storm to chat about. Well timed dip, but instead of a scoop, we may need shovels

lol's. Was just a comment, and not a pointed one whatsover. All good. Carry on pal. Headed home for happy hour....give me something to drink in celebration over (other than the friggin week being over).

Yeah, thats gonna be the way to the promise land. With no help from AO, possible neutralish look on NAO for this timeframe could support HP being a bit further south doing its "dirty work" and helping some of us out. I'm keying on NAO as it can come and go in short notice, so models do have a chance at further correcting based on that alone IMO.

what loop are you looking at??

Gotta say thats a nice look, but HP location is gonna be critical. me thinks verbatim, thin strip of decent snows (but some to the south get on the board). OTOH if the HP scoots too soon (GFS)....it's coldish tears falling from the sky. Nothin there to anchor it, but hey, timing IS everything.

dude, if the Euro wants the crown back, its gotta earn it. If this next week gig happens, it will help for sure. Historically when Euro/CMC/UKie are seeing something similar, it raises ones eyebrow, so what the heck. I'll be happy to wait a few more days before closing the shades, and then hope that they aren't closed for long. December snow is my favorite.

Good news is that its not going poof....so hey, maybe we sneak one in before we get the shorts out......(or for some, just keep em on).

Nothing like a southern slider and then 50 deg here waiting for the next cold front to wash rinse repeat..right. We saw this several times last year.

3 days into met winter is no time to punt anything. You were awake last year correct. Odds can be defied. We all like quick starts and pray for endless days of snow, but, like many other times, we just have to be patient.

some said early start, but others have punted december and said around new years into Jan might be first real go time for winter lovers.

Then I'm in good company. Hope for next week would be deeper trough post Monday, or quicker ejection out of midwest for your storm to have a chance. Keep an eye on NAO and if it keeps the neutral look, stale cold is better than no cold (even GFS hints at N Pa seeing ice). IF any of these things happen, then the scorned KIng and his minions may briefly rule the day for next week. While MJO plots are met w/ some skepticism of late, in warming times, they are something I hold a little more weight with. I've been on record of being a fan of AO as my favorite indicie for winter fun round here (that teacher dude in the MA forum used to roast me often about it- it seemed to work, so I'll claim a small victory), and when that happens (or our NAO buddy), then I get a bit excited. JMO's though. I'm not afraid to lay out my stance, cause that's partly why I'm here, to discuss learn, share, whatever. No cats needed.

Transient cold shots much the same as we are seeing now. We need wholesale changes discussed yesterday to get cold to hold. Sorry, just not gonna do it in current view. Yes, like next week, there can be well timed events to keep hope alive, but verbatim, your cold on the 13th is replaced w/ SE flow on the 15th w/ pig ridge. As much as I HATE being a Debbie, I'm just trying to temper hopes and expectations for a little while. There absolutely can be an event that gets us and everyone can roast the hell outta me. No problem, but as sad as it is to type it, I'm standing where I am until larger changes start to show upstream.

Went through your area yesterday and was surprised to see snow on the ground. I’d say between northumberland and Danville is when it faded to nothing but a trace in shaded areas.

I was watching the HP on the GFS and it was way too far east and return flow cooked us. Lets hope for this one to trend better.

Arguably one of the more arrogant personas I've ever come across. I'm all about good spirited debate, but when someone constantly speaks in "absolute" terms.....that's just poor form.