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pasnownut

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Everything posted by pasnownut

  1. pasnownut
    Absolutely. While I hate the warm days in December, at least we've not been days and days of scorched here and have back n forth temps. Unfortunately we need the cold prior and not after storm passage....and thats gonna take a reshuffle of the deck.
  2. pasnownut
    Gotta say I'm surprised at how far south this SLP is staying. I'll admit a bust on that for sure. NAO relaxing and headed + was a sign that this should lift into our region more than it did. Hoping for mood flakes, although it may take more than that to offset the bunk pattern for the next 2 weeks. Oh well...onto other things till signs of life from 'ol man winter come back.....just hope he comes back sooner than later
  3. pasnownut
    Well....lets enjoy a couple mood flakes tomorrow (for the lower 1/3 of Pa, then get out the tanning lotion so we look good n tan when winter white returns hopefully before Christmas. Was worried yesterday about the norther qpf being shown, based on SLP being so far south and not very stout. Oh well, it's early gang. Plenty of time for fun.
  4. pasnownut
    Differs wildly is an understatement, but yeah if one looks at NAO that’s around the time it looks to possibly start down. So to your point, we need more runs to start showing this. MJO heading well into 7 around that time and would give your hope a chance if so. Brought this up last week and it’s good to see that it’s still in play.
  5. pasnownut
    his dad can get it for us........... J/K Welcome kid...Not sure how much you'll learn here, but were a fun bunch. hehe
  6. pasnownut
    You are slippin pal....how bout beer?
  7. pasnownut
    700/850s are a little deeper into the MA. Not sure why the GFS is showing the mix into SE Pa. Thermal profiles were fine. Wonky/bunk.....toss
  8. pasnownut
    I've not been "down there" since last winter, and miss it like.......well, I dont. Enough chatter here to keep me, and when cold is hard to find, I do other things, and spend FAR less time searching for snow/cold. I still love it the same, just not gonna live my life behind a puter searching for it. ROI not there for me.
  9. pasnownut
    yeah i was wondering what you were looking at. looks like SLP held serve. Slightly deeper cold pool may thwart norther progression, but GFS has struggled w/ cold, so that is also partly why i think north option is in play. 500s have subtle changes but not enough to get cranked up abt. Fun all the same.
  10. pasnownut
    3k has SLP a bit more wester and huggin coast which likely helps as well.
  11. pasnownut
    I said it last week and will stand (or fall) on it. NAO is the sponsor of this potential event, as it gives us the window to keep the cold close enough for the midweek. It spikes up from Wed and beyond. IF the upward options would have verified, this storm would be headed for Chicago.
  12. pasnownut
    You keep wishing this away and you may get your wish, but I think HP trending NE (which fits the pattern IMO), gives this thing room to come north, as there is no big block to the N forcing this south. I think a north trend is likely based on pattern. Just my .02's tho
  13. pasnownut
    NAM ow In fairness..plenty of GFS snowmaps have come and gone. Takaway, is its a tool, and one that looks good right now, so weenie rule #1 comes into play. Hug the one that gives you what you want.
  14. pasnownut
    Definately a nice uptick in qpf. I, like bubbles, think the NAM bashing is often overstated. It's not too dissimilar to other looks right now, and as we have a decent HP location (trending further NE and slightly weaker), it give this think a little room to come north IMO. My only worry is the how far NW the appreciable qpf gets w/ SLP so far south.
  15. pasnownut
    If one looks at the 2m temp anomalies on GFS Ens, its a blood bath east of the Miss. Twds the end the cold is pressing, but looking further upstream, there is not a large cold source to keep a sustained feed coming. Likely to change in the next week or so, but that's what i see (and worry about) for now.
  16. pasnownut
    Sure hope so. Would be a nice start to the season down here. Going to dig it a bit later to see how long the warmup will last post midweek. Nice to be tracking something (although I've been rather busy w/ other stuff) and really am just reading more than watching models of late.
  17. pasnownut
    At 72 on nooner Nam, if one toggles through last several runs, the tucked look is coming around. Also like the HP location. GFS and NAM mirror in location at that timestamp. I think trainer may have a storm.
  18. pasnownut
    If the "normal" north trend commences....it'll be congrats Wspt....and I'll be moist n not white.
  19. pasnownut
    said something about this the other day, and think that this is largely why we have a storm to chat about. Well timed dip, but instead of a scoop, we may need shovels
  20. pasnownut
    lol's. Was just a comment, and not a pointed one whatsover. All good. Carry on pal. Headed home for happy hour....give me something to drink in celebration over (other than the friggin week being over).
  21. pasnownut
    Yeah, thats gonna be the way to the promise land. With no help from AO, possible neutralish look on NAO for this timeframe could support HP being a bit further south doing its "dirty work" and helping some of us out. I'm keying on NAO as it can come and go in short notice, so models do have a chance at further correcting based on that alone IMO.
  22. pasnownut
    what loop are you looking at??
  23. pasnownut
    Gotta say thats a nice look, but HP location is gonna be critical. me thinks verbatim, thin strip of decent snows (but some to the south get on the board). OTOH if the HP scoots too soon (GFS)....it's coldish tears falling from the sky. Nothin there to anchor it, but hey, timing IS everything.
  24. pasnownut
    dude, if the Euro wants the crown back, its gotta earn it. If this next week gig happens, it will help for sure. Historically when Euro/CMC/UKie are seeing something similar, it raises ones eyebrow, so what the heck. I'll be happy to wait a few more days before closing the shades, and then hope that they aren't closed for long. December snow is my favorite.
  25. pasnownut
    Good news is that its not going poof....so hey, maybe we sneak one in before we get the shorts out......(or for some, just keep em on).
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