pasnownut

I'm not sure who ever suggested the tellies as absolutes. I know I've ALWAYS stated that they are merely a tool in the bag of tricks. That's it.

Yeah its akin to when 300+ Op maps are posted and folks say "here comes the warmth".

Yeah unfortunately it may be a step down process, and not straight into the money panels. Still seeing the central basin ridging trying to play spoiler, but as we are approching peak climo, the cold is building and w/ NAO trending negative and AO neutral/neg ish (and if one looks below, several members try to go solidly negative - fits the cold Jan that some have suggested. That said, it would likely suppress central ridging, which should hopefully correct on the model runs as we move forward. As Mag suggested tho, east based NAO is not ideal, as it give ridging a chance to play spoiler. More west based and that ridge goes poof... All that said, it still looks like better times ahead cold wise. Just gotta time it right for the snow. MJO still looks better and I think the loopdedoop is gone. Looks more like its headed for 7....but i dont have my cheaters on :).

Like I said to Pa yesterday, its a step down process, and as it has a zonalish look to it (moving forward), it doesnt take much distance to be white rain vs white gold, so we need to mentally prepare for that possibility. I think i suggested "ankle deep" regarding the weekend cold, but that may be what we deal w/ for some time before a more appreciable change (hopefully for the better) takes hold. Mag brought up the loopdedoo in P6 of the MJO plot and yes, I saw it, but factored that into my writing this week off. That said, IF that happens, or a stall, and less movement out twds 7/8/1, then we may be back to doom n gloom. I'm betting on the pronounced move into 7 and hopefully 8 as our saving grace. That said, I only know what the MJO plots correlate to, and would not profess to know the factors that play into each of them (wrt ENSO). Lets hope the possible trends were seeing keep progressing beyond this week.

lols.. that was a good one.

It fits the zonal looks that have been showing up. Not really surprised. Still stepping down in temps though. Hoping for a bit more continuity w/ EPS/GFS Ens.

Does the word poof mean anything to you? Totally lost it.

yesterdays run. todays run. Looks colder out ahead of your time of interest

If one loops nooner GFS Ens. runs both look rather similar and notably better for the east as we progress through next week and beyond. Verbatim it'd be bowlin balls across the conus w/ maybe some clippers. No deep trough (which means zonal but again not a kiss of death), as source regions come from the N and NW. Not the most exciting pattern, but one that could give us a bit of white here and there.

agreed. Thats why I set a low bar a couple days ago when the changes started to show some merit. We all know that as things evolve, its often a step down, and not a light switch.

patience grasshopper....that's miles and miles better than where we've been, and just getting a storm under us is a big step.

and by late Saturday, here we are.

2m temps are more supportive of your thoughts...as of now, but as suggested by trainer some time ago, GFS verifies warmer than modeled, so...dunno. I'm writing the week off as a loss and just getting on w/ it.

2m temps are still close here in the LSV. Friday has eeked up a bit in last 2-3 runs, so keep an eye as if the boundary doesnt get far enough south....I may pull shorts out as well. I'm planning on warmth and will be happy if we backdoor or get the boundary a little deeper till the reshuffle gets us back to normalish.

Only curveball is backdoorish like antecedent cold that looks to press down east of apps Wed. IF that holds a little longer/stronger, then 60's might be a stretch. As we've seen all too often, warm often wins, so we'll see. Here is a pic of what I'm suggesting. Nooner NAM shows this as well.

for thursday its shorts day for you (and trainer).

verbatim, yes it does. Saturday looks like boundary safely down to the MA and they can fight over whos in 40's and 60's. Seeing a threat inside 200hrs is nice and models are starting to latch on to some of what the tellies have been suggesting. Couple more runs like 6z's and we may be able to start parsing over Op runs for whos getting what. I'm fully prepared to be screwed way down here, but in mid december, I expect it, and smile for whatever I can scarf up while norther/westers cash in (and cashtown of course).

5-10% likelyhood of happening....but better than a 384hr GFS maps that might have started this mess. I'd eyeball the AO as a neutral signal....not a strong one, but enough lines headed south to give me hope for better times. Overall takeaway is a hell of a lot better than it was a week ago...and yes, the op runs are starting to show it. 18z beyond thurs (and poss another warm saturday as we are rather close to the boundary and looping back it seems to be ticking north). Beyond that we look to be getting a lot more Christmas like temp wise.... MJO showing more movement towards better phase 7 and the money if we can get to 8 and 1...but lets not get ahead of ourselves. For those that dont follow the MJO, you want this lines further away from the center for a more pronounced response in said phase. Little circle in middle is referred to as the "circle of death", or weak signal and correlating response thereof. IF we can get the movement as depcicted, you'd likely see a sustained chance for cold to hold in the conus/east. PNA is also a neutral look, but not the kiss of death, even though we know that the Pac influence is often a bigger player than the others noted above. If we can get phase 7/8 w/ NAO, that can be a workable deal round here.

Every couple years we go through challenging periods, and this seems to be one of em. It's always easier to finds ways to fail than succeed in snowville and again, plenty of stats to support that. I'm not here to put anyone down, not at all, and I hope we can keep the good mojo we worked hard to get rollin in here. I guess I stood up for blizz cause while he's a glass ALL FULL kinda dude in the winter, we need that as its hard enough to find snow. If its not gonna snow, I just want someone to back it up w/ something more than a 300hr map.

I, nor many others, are not punting Blizz. We are discussing an Op model run. Doing anything else with it would be trying to interpret something that the model did not output. It's equally as valid as talking about teleconnections that are often completely misinterpreted. The GFS has regressed in its winter look over the last 24-48 hours. 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: I think discussing anything more than 7 days out is truly troop rally. Couple takeaways... Tellies were brought up a couple times by myself and others....and you've responded about your dislikes w/ them. Fine, you don't like em.....but to put a 5-10 percent valuation on them is based on what data?? I/we see many mets use them. You have somethin else in your weather bag of tricks....cool bud, we're all ears.....but to dismiss his, my or anyone else's assertion while using them..not sure I get that at all. At last check....many way smarter than me are still throwin darts at the meteorological weatherboard. You say you don't discuss op runs, but post often about them, and only a week or so ago we went back n forth over a 300+ hr map. That's way more than 7 days, and agree 100%...its just a troop rally and often not even worthy of a banter thread....if we could only have one. Quite frankly, tbh I'm as tired of seeing them posted as some are snow maps. We've all seen plenty of flip flops in 6 hr intervals, and there's plenty of data to back that statement up. Unless I've got it all wrong, most of us that discuss weather regularly (cept the red taggers), have limited skillsets, and as you stated, bring different stuff to the disco table. That's part of the fun and why many of us are here. I'd ask everyone here to in the famous words of Letterkenny "throttle r back 20", and lets try not to dissuade weather conversation on a weather board. I like many come here to discuss weather, and snow (or lack of) in particular, and parse through lots of off topic/unrelated banter in order to do so, with little to no moderation. Asking you all to think about that last part a bit. This is NOT an attack, but an attempt to keep it real in here when were only a couple weeks into an already challenging and preciously short season for us snow hounds. It's gonna be what its gonna be, but lets keep the convo flowing and not get snipy and clicky....like some other forums....we ARE better than that. I'm not here to be the best/most frequent poster...not my jam. Just want to chat up weather (and some fun) with good peeps.

Thunder and one flash in Phillipsburg area. Great day to hunt.

Your wife is on hell of a woman........

Jealous.....