pasnownut

Only curveball is backdoorish like antecedent cold that looks to press down east of apps Wed. IF that holds a little longer/stronger, then 60's might be a stretch. As we've seen all too often, warm often wins, so we'll see. Here is a pic of what I'm suggesting. Nooner NAM shows this as well.

for thursday its shorts day for you (and trainer).

verbatim, yes it does. Saturday looks like boundary safely down to the MA and they can fight over whos in 40's and 60's. Seeing a threat inside 200hrs is nice and models are starting to latch on to some of what the tellies have been suggesting. Couple more runs like 6z's and we may be able to start parsing over Op runs for whos getting what. I'm fully prepared to be screwed way down here, but in mid december, I expect it, and smile for whatever I can scarf up while norther/westers cash in (and cashtown of course).

5-10% likelyhood of happening....but better than a 384hr GFS maps that might have started this mess. I'd eyeball the AO as a neutral signal....not a strong one, but enough lines headed south to give me hope for better times. Overall takeaway is a hell of a lot better than it was a week ago...and yes, the op runs are starting to show it. 18z beyond thurs (and poss another warm saturday as we are rather close to the boundary and looping back it seems to be ticking north). Beyond that we look to be getting a lot more Christmas like temp wise.... MJO showing more movement towards better phase 7 and the money if we can get to 8 and 1...but lets not get ahead of ourselves. For those that dont follow the MJO, you want this lines further away from the center for a more pronounced response in said phase. Little circle in middle is referred to as the "circle of death", or weak signal and correlating response thereof. IF we can get the movement as depcicted, you'd likely see a sustained chance for cold to hold in the conus/east. PNA is also a neutral look, but not the kiss of death, even though we know that the Pac influence is often a bigger player than the others noted above. If we can get phase 7/8 w/ NAO, that can be a workable deal round here.

Every couple years we go through challenging periods, and this seems to be one of em. It's always easier to finds ways to fail than succeed in snowville and again, plenty of stats to support that. I'm not here to put anyone down, not at all, and I hope we can keep the good mojo we worked hard to get rollin in here. I guess I stood up for blizz cause while he's a glass ALL FULL kinda dude in the winter, we need that as its hard enough to find snow. If its not gonna snow, I just want someone to back it up w/ something more than a 300hr map.

I, nor many others, are not punting Blizz. We are discussing an Op model run. Doing anything else with it would be trying to interpret something that the model did not output. It's equally as valid as talking about teleconnections that are often completely misinterpreted. The GFS has regressed in its winter look over the last 24-48 hours. 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: I think discussing anything more than 7 days out is truly troop rally. Couple takeaways... Tellies were brought up a couple times by myself and others....and you've responded about your dislikes w/ them. Fine, you don't like em.....but to put a 5-10 percent valuation on them is based on what data?? I/we see many mets use them. You have somethin else in your weather bag of tricks....cool bud, we're all ears.....but to dismiss his, my or anyone else's assertion while using them..not sure I get that at all. At last check....many way smarter than me are still throwin darts at the meteorological weatherboard. You say you don't discuss op runs, but post often about them, and only a week or so ago we went back n forth over a 300+ hr map. That's way more than 7 days, and agree 100%...its just a troop rally and often not even worthy of a banter thread....if we could only have one. Quite frankly, tbh I'm as tired of seeing them posted as some are snow maps. We've all seen plenty of flip flops in 6 hr intervals, and there's plenty of data to back that statement up. Unless I've got it all wrong, most of us that discuss weather regularly (cept the red taggers), have limited skillsets, and as you stated, bring different stuff to the disco table. That's part of the fun and why many of us are here. I'd ask everyone here to in the famous words of Letterkenny "throttle r back 20", and lets try not to dissuade weather conversation on a weather board. I like many come here to discuss weather, and snow (or lack of) in particular, and parse through lots of off topic/unrelated banter in order to do so, with little to no moderation. Asking you all to think about that last part a bit. This is NOT an attack, but an attempt to keep it real in here when were only a couple weeks into an already challenging and preciously short season for us snow hounds. It's gonna be what its gonna be, but lets keep the convo flowing and not get snipy and clicky....like some other forums....we ARE better than that. I'm not here to be the best/most frequent poster...not my jam. Just want to chat up weather (and some fun) with good peeps.

Thunder and one flash in Phillipsburg area. Great day to hunt.

Your wife is on hell of a woman........

Jealous.....

Spritle.....one must not look at an op run at 300+ hours....not worth 1 bit of fret. Ensembles past d 10.....and then still w/ caution. Gotta blend indicies/tellies etc. and shake snow globe real good...then the picture becomes a bit more clear. and in this instance, bubbles is right...much less ridgy and heading zonal in the means aoa 300hrs. No prize winner, but no shutout pattern either.

Just looked out and legit flakes falling. That mood kinda stuff.... (10/minute kinda mood though-not Bearl n I'ves by any stretch)

I guess you beat my by 8 flakes then.... nada here, but I cant see out frosted window, so maybe I missed them.

I saw one as well....in mirror. thats all

They must read your driving concern posts here and try to oblige you.... cant win.

This sh!t is moderately fantastic w/ Ginger.....just sayin

and to that point, that's sorta why I like the mid/longer range stuff, as your dealing in macro space, not micro (like mby). To me, its a bit more predictable. I, like many, have spent gazillions of hours over the years, searching for snow every 6 hrs, and just like today, small differences in forecasts from 2 days ago, make a big diff in mby. Things have come a long way, but as we've all discussed, the "updates" on some models have fixed certain problems, but have created others, and in the end, not sure how much better off we are. Not looking to argue, as i know many stand in defense of them, but they, like all of us weather weenies....are just a tool.

Tellies starting to look better. this would be a big help in getting the east back to zonal/troughy looks. Happy Hump Day.

To give a bit of hope (and help for Blizz). Best case, it is a trend we need to see...further erosion of the big red blob, as well as suppression, which could be timed w/ MJO. Also seeing some better looks w/ AO/NAO which supports this potential shift. Will post pic in next post. 0z 6z

378hr panel.....what can change...... Just playin Blizz. You keep sniffin out snow. We like that. My glass is also half full, but the last 2 years have tweaked that a bit. Keep on keepin on pal.

as long as days doesn't become weeks.....I'd think we'd all buy in.

showers likely saturday as another frontal boundary pushes through.

For those that are still mowing grass (me included), its really not growing at normal rates, and I'd suggest its 80/20 keeping lawn/leaves clean vs mowing tall green grass. At least thats what it is at my casa. I've done the same thing I've been doing for many years. This year no different.

Enso is a factor, but IMO AO/NAO/PNA and EPO are players that make or break our cold intrusions happen here in the east. Go look at the tellies....and the picture for the next couple weeks is pretty clear IMO.

Absolutely. While I hate the warm days in December, at least we've not been days and days of scorched here and have back n forth temps. Unfortunately we need the cold prior and not after storm passage....and thats gonna take a reshuffle of the deck.