pasnownut

Wow we do think alike. I’m just in agreement with blizzard that we can (and have) had late starts and done alright. If this were 4 weeks from now I’d be thinking differently as like you, snow in March to me is a kick in the crotch and a waste of what could have been were it a few weeks earlier.

You just said what I’ve been trying to say for some time now “ weather isnt a light switch or an app” blah blah blah.

Not a good look. Wondering In my mind that could be a reflection of MJO diving in 7 twds COD. Gotta hope the AO NAO couplet can save us (and I think they can).

We need that Alaska vortex to relocate SE off west coast as it is the traffic cop for pac influence and would promote ridging out west pushing trough further east.

last 3 runs at 6hr differences are shown below. You found a map that matches what MU says, but forgot to look at the one 6hrs earlier (or the one before that....) Pictured below is why its hard for me to wrap my head around LR Op guidance, but you do you bud. As you've questioned and poo poohed my voodo dolls used, I'm only doing the same. I guess we both keep banging our drums and one of us may be correct....even if for the wrong reasons. Just little to no continuity in LR Op guidance. Savings grace for warmies is that its notably much easier to find warmth these days, so you may end up correct even if not for LR Op guidance. also if one uses the roll forward method towards the end of ens guidance that pig ridge seems to be headed SE which is signaled by PNA headed + down the road. Dont be mad....i'm just chatting up weather on a weather board in my quest to find answers....and snow. . Your one of the few that throws their thoughts and feelings out as to the why and why nots....and I respect that. 6hrs later....lol

Step down continues....Pushes more chips in. Cold is coming and hopefully some white. MJO headed thru 7 and though strong push to 8 is now somewhat muted. Thats a worry, but I'll take the above and roll w/ whatever we get, cause there are enough signs that appreciable change is coming. Remember folks, the weather isnt a light switch or an app to order from. We never had a great look through christmas, and still dont...Its only been advertised as a better one, but that doesnt mean instant correlation to snow. Hoping MJO comes around as that would be the final piece to appreciable changes for us and yes, I've seen the maps.....AO and NAO couplet will likely diminish the effects of SC ridge that has been screwin us. Yes, that blob south of AK needs to come east and cant be ignored, but no matter the result, the base state is changing.

Thanks bud. So far ok. Wishin you and the rest of the gang safe travels through the next round. Let’s hope Omni proves to be just a bad cold or flu. Fortunately we are far better prepared heading into winter than we were a year ago. Hope that calms many but fear it wont.

Sorry its been rough for you. Hang in there. Not in the chest for me (yet). Hoping you get through it soon. Take care.

I do remember. Glad you are better. I got the iHealth test. From what little I've looked into it, it seems rather accurate. My symptoms are more like omni, not delta. Anywhoo...thanks bud. It's early, but I'm hoping my 1 dose of Phzr does it's thingy and it stays mild.

I'll wager that Eagles dont play next Tuesday either. This next round is blowing up and even if less severe....unfortunately history will repeat itself....even with so many vaccinated. Not sure I get that.....but I did get it. Tested pos. yesterday afternoon. I'm sure some here would like me to stay away from the board for their own safety tho.

thats an easy one....till it snows silly. Even though we are looking like better days ahead, I'd not "waste" too much time parsing over every model run. Maybe by Sunday/Monday you can start fretting if models dont spit out alot of snow. It's just not a slam dunk period next week but one that has potential to give some fun.

what you stated screams zonal and only one you forgot was AO which also looks to be heading favorably, which gives us chances to be on the colder side of solutions. Western and northern PA would approve. Here in SE, yeah, we get leftovers at best. Just gotta hope one of em lays down the goods and then I'll complain a lot less

Nah....it just shows what the wrong side of better times looks like. The persistence of ridging in the central basin surely looks to be the most prominent feature and one that we cant deny or dismiss until we progress towards EOY. We've had quite a few years that were relatively quite until after Xmas, so this isnt anything outlandish IMO.

NAO/AO continue to show more weight to negative PNA while solidly negative starts to head up which would give credence to Lose A Toes suggestion that we might....just mighty be headed into 2022 w/ some winter opps. as as it should open the window notably for the east. Lastly MJO looks like we are headed solidly for 7. Key is, can we get to 8. If one follows trends, this is trending better. Just things to watch as we wait. If you want big winter, we want NW corner of MJO plots to verify. That'd be our keys to sustained chances to winter wonderland. OTOH if that dive twds COD verifies.....we'll need all the above tellies in our favor to overcome any muted MJO signals.

and if we can get the boundary a little further south, I'd think some clippers would likely give you/some of us a shot at some snow. Looks active nontheless.

and if that one doesnt work, the one a couple days later looks good on a weather map....so far. We gotta pull for a bit more southerly jog w/ the cold and it could present a few chances for sure.

12/23 event went wrong way w/ spacing/cold....blah blah blah. Christmas day IMO is just snow TV as blocking not really established enough to do the trick and force that vort further south and under, so I'm not sure how much energy is left when Santa arrives w/ his stuff.

enough being seen/shown that while the risk for individual wins still remains low, the overall risk is worth sliding a few chips into the center.

yep, but remember....the heartbreak hotel always has vacancies..... Hoping that the next few days show more definitive signals for EOY and start of new year.

Just a reminder that as we are only starting transition period, it is no slam dunk pattern, as we need zonal look evolve into hopefully a more troughy look here in the east, otherwise its nutballs above or below us and verbatim we dont have a lot of wiggle room w/ zonal look, so set expectations reasonably, and lets hope for a couple weather presents from Santa next week n beyond. At the minimum, cold will be close enough to wake up some snow weenies.

If we can get blocking established, it could help to slow it down and allow more cold to work in for norther/westers. It's been a while since we've seen this look. No matter the result, it's perty...

There has been mounting evidence for a while now. Sure its easier to not believe or pooh pooh cause one feels snakebit or doesnt like what they see...whatevs, but like it or not, I've been posting info/maps/indicies in support of it for a while now. Does it mean its gonna snow....hell no....I'm not that stupid, but does it mean we are headed for better chances....absofrigginlutely, and thats all I've been in search of. Time will tell, but seeing op runs of last day or so, says they are latching onto appreciable changes upstairs that has been showing on Ens guidance for a little while now. another tool is to watch Op/Ens and when they show less divergence, odd's go up a couple ticks more. It hasnt been easy to get here, and lets hope trends continue so we can hopefully lay down some white before the next warmup looms. When that happens...??? But I'm sure some are already searching for it, as that seems easier to find/discuss of late. Can't deny that. Working from home, so I might be able to check in a bit more (yes....I've got THAT bug).

I'm talking about this one. Its an outside chance, but as i stated earlier, still plenty of time for changes (better or worse mind you). IF we can get a little better penetration of cold into the midwest, its not a horrible look. #searchinforchristmasmiracle

Wouldnt totally write off next Tue/Wed yet either. Look at GFS and you'll notice a northward jog for mid next week. Plenty of time to come around.

Its a step in the right direction....like a big one. First low we've seen in a couple weeks that isnt cutting 500-1000 miles west of us. Pattern coming up may have heartbreak one day and a pleasant surprise a couple days later. Although heading more zonal, there really is a couple weeks of transition left until potential deeper trough/cold settle in for a bit. I'm just glad to see cold close by.