pasnownut

12/23 event went wrong way w/ spacing/cold....blah blah blah. Christmas day IMO is just snow TV as blocking not really established enough to do the trick and force that vort further south and under, so I'm not sure how much energy is left when Santa arrives w/ his stuff.

enough being seen/shown that while the risk for individual wins still remains low, the overall risk is worth sliding a few chips into the center.

yep, but remember....the heartbreak hotel always has vacancies..... Hoping that the next few days show more definitive signals for EOY and start of new year.

Just a reminder that as we are only starting transition period, it is no slam dunk pattern, as we need zonal look evolve into hopefully a more troughy look here in the east, otherwise its nutballs above or below us and verbatim we dont have a lot of wiggle room w/ zonal look, so set expectations reasonably, and lets hope for a couple weather presents from Santa next week n beyond. At the minimum, cold will be close enough to wake up some snow weenies.

If we can get blocking established, it could help to slow it down and allow more cold to work in for norther/westers. It's been a while since we've seen this look. No matter the result, it's perty...

There has been mounting evidence for a while now. Sure its easier to not believe or pooh pooh cause one feels snakebit or doesnt like what they see...whatevs, but like it or not, I've been posting info/maps/indicies in support of it for a while now. Does it mean its gonna snow....hell no....I'm not that stupid, but does it mean we are headed for better chances....absofrigginlutely, and thats all I've been in search of. Time will tell, but seeing op runs of last day or so, says they are latching onto appreciable changes upstairs that has been showing on Ens guidance for a little while now. another tool is to watch Op/Ens and when they show less divergence, odd's go up a couple ticks more. It hasnt been easy to get here, and lets hope trends continue so we can hopefully lay down some white before the next warmup looms. When that happens...??? But I'm sure some are already searching for it, as that seems easier to find/discuss of late. Can't deny that. Working from home, so I might be able to check in a bit more (yes....I've got THAT bug).

I'm talking about this one. Its an outside chance, but as i stated earlier, still plenty of time for changes (better or worse mind you). IF we can get a little better penetration of cold into the midwest, its not a horrible look. #searchinforchristmasmiracle

Wouldnt totally write off next Tue/Wed yet either. Look at GFS and you'll notice a northward jog for mid next week. Plenty of time to come around.

Its a step in the right direction....like a big one. First low we've seen in a couple weeks that isnt cutting 500-1000 miles west of us. Pattern coming up may have heartbreak one day and a pleasant surprise a couple days later. Although heading more zonal, there really is a couple weeks of transition left until potential deeper trough/cold settle in for a bit. I'm just glad to see cold close by.

I'm not sure who ever suggested the tellies as absolutes. I know I've ALWAYS stated that they are merely a tool in the bag of tricks. That's it.

Yeah its akin to when 300+ Op maps are posted and folks say "here comes the warmth".

Yeah unfortunately it may be a step down process, and not straight into the money panels. Still seeing the central basin ridging trying to play spoiler, but as we are approching peak climo, the cold is building and w/ NAO trending negative and AO neutral/neg ish (and if one looks below, several members try to go solidly negative - fits the cold Jan that some have suggested. That said, it would likely suppress central ridging, which should hopefully correct on the model runs as we move forward. As Mag suggested tho, east based NAO is not ideal, as it give ridging a chance to play spoiler. More west based and that ridge goes poof... All that said, it still looks like better times ahead cold wise. Just gotta time it right for the snow. MJO still looks better and I think the loopdedoop is gone. Looks more like its headed for 7....but i dont have my cheaters on :).

Like I said to Pa yesterday, its a step down process, and as it has a zonalish look to it (moving forward), it doesnt take much distance to be white rain vs white gold, so we need to mentally prepare for that possibility. I think i suggested "ankle deep" regarding the weekend cold, but that may be what we deal w/ for some time before a more appreciable change (hopefully for the better) takes hold. Mag brought up the loopdedoo in P6 of the MJO plot and yes, I saw it, but factored that into my writing this week off. That said, IF that happens, or a stall, and less movement out twds 7/8/1, then we may be back to doom n gloom. I'm betting on the pronounced move into 7 and hopefully 8 as our saving grace. That said, I only know what the MJO plots correlate to, and would not profess to know the factors that play into each of them (wrt ENSO). Lets hope the possible trends were seeing keep progressing beyond this week.

lols.. that was a good one.

It fits the zonal looks that have been showing up. Not really surprised. Still stepping down in temps though. Hoping for a bit more continuity w/ EPS/GFS Ens.

Does the word poof mean anything to you? Totally lost it.

yesterdays run. todays run. Looks colder out ahead of your time of interest

If one loops nooner GFS Ens. runs both look rather similar and notably better for the east as we progress through next week and beyond. Verbatim it'd be bowlin balls across the conus w/ maybe some clippers. No deep trough (which means zonal but again not a kiss of death), as source regions come from the N and NW. Not the most exciting pattern, but one that could give us a bit of white here and there.

agreed. Thats why I set a low bar a couple days ago when the changes started to show some merit. We all know that as things evolve, its often a step down, and not a light switch.

patience grasshopper....that's miles and miles better than where we've been, and just getting a storm under us is a big step.

and by late Saturday, here we are.

2m temps are more supportive of your thoughts...as of now, but as suggested by trainer some time ago, GFS verifies warmer than modeled, so...dunno. I'm writing the week off as a loss and just getting on w/ it.

2m temps are still close here in the LSV. Friday has eeked up a bit in last 2-3 runs, so keep an eye as if the boundary doesnt get far enough south....I may pull shorts out as well. I'm planning on warmth and will be happy if we backdoor or get the boundary a little deeper till the reshuffle gets us back to normalish.

Only curveball is backdoorish like antecedent cold that looks to press down east of apps Wed. IF that holds a little longer/stronger, then 60's might be a stretch. As we've seen all too often, warm often wins, so we'll see. Here is a pic of what I'm suggesting. Nooner NAM shows this as well.