pasnownut

Left cabin at noon today. 3" on top of the 1" we had otg. Really pretty last evening. This morning was pixie dust powder bomb....whatever you want to call it. Crazy beautiful till it started to melt a bit, and fog rolled in.

Best takeaway from overnighter Ens guidance is the GOA LP is going going....thus allowing the troughing to progress further east and flow outta NW. Also losing the looks of the cutoff LP in the SW. East really needs NAO to help get a really good look, but its definitely a more workable one as we get into the New Year.

Merry Christmas from Covid central....4 of 6 now got THE bug..... all good, we'll be fine. Wishing you all health and happiness...... and snow. Nut

Congrats northers....and by northers, I mean WAY northers. PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-241000- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Tioga- Northern Lycoming-Sullivan- 454 AM EST Thu Dec 23 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A several hour period of light snow will bring an accumulation of coating to 2 inches across the Northern Mountains of Pennsylvania tonight, with the greatest amounts likely near and to the north of Route 6. Plan for extra travel time and use caution with slick driving conditions expected on untreated roads. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Trying to laugh at this.....

verbatim its just enough antecedent cold that it could work. That HP needs to hold a bit longer for a better shot at wintery precip, cause we all know cold doesnt hold of late. Temps may make it a snow/ice to drizzle kinda deal. Better than nothing right?

Great write up Mag and yeah, you seam it together nicely w/ the cause/effect. I'm concerned at seeing less movement wrt the NAO/AO/PNA signals that were showing a few days ago, as we knew we'd need them to offset the constant ridging here in the east. Guess we'll see where we head from here, but it's gonna be rough sledding for sure.

and....back to the regularly scheduled doom n gloom..... Tellies showing less strength as we move forward, which is likely throwing a wrench into our winter plans. enough positives starting to show up to once again reflect persistence of same shit pattern we've been in. That GOA SLP needs a big push east to bring ridge with it and put trough into central basin and pts. east. Still think it can happen but it's really up in the air. Recent PNA panel also support same old crap....

So....you admit to a little sarcasm.......eh??? Askin for my friends..........

Props pal....props...... Well done...

despite what GEFS shows....Op should be measured w/ heavy dose of salt beyond d7. I can get gazillions of pics to show 6 hr swings....even if it ends up correct.

No doubt we are headed for zonal pattern as depicted above. Concern has to be w/ persistent ridge in central basin and why it wont go away...even w/ neg AO/NAO period upcoming. Its like the displaced but not denied GOA LP is relentless. LR guidance suggests they both get bumped, but I'm not sure that they get displaced. Trying to wrap my head around this conundrum we're in. Me thinks MJO dive in 7 is what surface pattern is reflecting...and correcting to as well as AO/NAO not staying neg. Me hopes me is wrong. Gotta grab another bevvy....Covid almost gone, n daughter now tests positive tonight. Son likely will tomorrow. Wife.....tough cookie. It's all good. We'll take our Omni (73.2 of all cases now Omni Bubbles) and deal w/ it. Unfortunately daughter came home from Denver to see fam/friends....bummer.

trying to take that as a complement.... Right??

I also had steady drizzle for a period last evening. This was a storm that I had said to watch last week. It came notably north, but just missed. I was thinking northern periphery might get white from it. Oh well....another miss all the same.

lol...that was a good one. well played.

other than being a Dallas fan....agreed. .

wow...that first sentence. People officially suck.

lets just say the kettle is "crushin it" is what it is, and yeah, its hard to polish a turd.

It’s a rather unique situation but yes he has a kid up there. His work home base is Lanco but they work all over northeast corridor. Assuming he makes rather decent coin

Yeah i know how they are and have been struggling up there and I agree w/ your statement.. Sad for sure. Hoping the next couple weeks helps to get them some business. Needs to start soon as I know the holiday week is a big part of their winter business. Still have a bud in Cicero and he drives all the way down to PA to work and goes home on some weekends. Sad.

I'd throw Old Forge into the fray as they have lakes and plenty of summer activities to draw folks/industries. You also have lake influence albeit further east. Outside of that, yea northern NY is desolate and somewhat struggling. I have a couple snowmobile buddies that had cabins or looked to purchase, but taxes were the end of it of them keeping or looking to purchase. Man is it a beautiful area though.

agreed....and its 300+ hrs out. As regime change continues to evolve, they should start showing their hand in next couple days...and not just be 1 run. Watch for that in coming runs. BTW, Covid was an average cold. Day 5 and I can feel it breaking up like the glaciers in the Arctic Circle in spring. If you get Omni, fret not my friends, but I wish you all health and happiness always.

also starting to see the Ens guidance on nooner GEFS/GEPS ticking south for the big day and beyond. Thats what we've been waiting for. Not a big step, but definatley seasonal....now for the snow.....dunno, but a positive step for nooner run. Also seeing ridging being suppresed in central basin. that would cooincide w/ NAO/AO heading down IMO.

dude, rode through your neck of the woods on the Harley scooter a couple times and yes, you absolutely make the list. In truth I'd have a better chance of your area than the others. Daughter lives in Denver(should be home for holidays any minute btw) so i guess I'd have a whack at Co if she stays there. You live in a great area, and one I hope to frequent more. Will stop to steal a beer next time through.

words well stated. I'm old enough to enjoy all 4, but missing winter makes it tough for sure. In a good snow season, Im actually sorta ready for spring and some warmth but I'm sure if I lived in ME or Co, or a real snow town, I'd take all the snow I could get.