pasnownut

Guessing that's because of the arctic boundary pressing/interacting w/ coastal, and causing sharp cutoff. 500's are once again a bit more neg tilt and should help to tuck the LP closer to coast, but that boundary likely is culprit IMO

God I wish the NAM went beyond 84. We would likely all be a tad more giddy. Cuts back a bit on the NS precip, but makes up for it w/ a really nice SLP just off NC VA coast and is notably south of GFS. Verbatim it would give the coastal time to get crankin. REALLY like the look. Here's to hopin the rest of the 0z's keep this trend going.

It sure keeps hope alive...and hope the 0z's dont buck that trend.

Yeah that wouldnt take much of a shift West to get a bunch of folks in the game. I wont be up for the Euro, but were countin on you.

It was aiming to be a crowd pleaser. Such a tease.... Nicely tucked at 84.

or that orangish blob NW. Plenty of time so all options exist, but to your point, purples would be just fine....

Yeah, I'm not remotely worried about ratios yet. We need the storm first, but it looks like chances are increasing at something appreciable for some/many.

thats about 2 moves away from me staying home from cabin (snowmobiling) and riding around here.

Solid trends W today. All we can ask for at this juncture. at 0z my house had 4.3. Using this for qpf distribution purposes and not for perty colors.

Euro @96 slp is 978 and cranking off coast. Will be anxious to see what the Ens guidance shows for MSLP mean. Precip into eastern 1/3 of Pa

@90 Euro is a bit better looking at 500's, with a little more neg tilt. Surface close to 6z

Good to see you out enjoying it....and not stuck looking at models.. Enjoy.

In looking a bit deeper, this is also a good sign. Quite a few tucked/inland. This give us a chance at further corrections West. Verbatim it is east of the op by a tad, so we'll take whatever good we can get.

If only life could be filled with happy endings............

CMC at 90-96 is slightly quicker and NNE w/ SLP. at 96 it now has qpf into Allentown and I'm likely smokin cirrus. It really bombs out and is east of GFS SLP. Its in line w/ other nooners, and if nothing helps, narrows goalposts a bit. Didnt hurt the trends of today.

Sorry to hear your are tied, up. We'll try to reel it in for ya. Not sure what you mean wrt coastal being east tho. Verbatim its still quite a fish storm at our latitude. We need it to tuck in a bit more which throws the wester QPF back to CTP and gives you and i the wiggle room I think you are talking bout.

Totally agree.

at 5 days out (yesterday), these kinds wobbles are normal. Unfortunately the wobbles havent gone our way this year..lol

Yeah I know they too are a bit starved. Good for them. Friends were sledding in NY 2 weekends ago and said it sucked. Really feel for those that rely on the snow biz.

100% agree. 2-4 IS a big win for many in LSV. I'll gladly take in hopes that the next one...or one after that...whatevs....gets me in the jackzone.

@96 and 102 it is about 100 miles W of 6z. Thats what we need to see. IF we get a couple more ticks W, its a nice event for many here. Not saying its happening, but its the trend we need. 500's look notably better (not there yet), but sharper/more neg tilt. I'll take this as a good step.

yep at 84 it is slightly west and 90 it carries that same theme. Precip panels responded well to interaction w/ arctic boundary. I think if one sets reasonable expectations, we might eek out our first legit WWA or low end (easters) Warning event if we can keep this tracking a bit further west. Any better interaction w/ arctic boundary likely gives mood snows for many here.

Icon trended better out to 90, but as coastal pops, its too late for this forum. Verbatim a little light snow and then we salute the eastern Jersey and NE folks for their win.

For those that still want to track.... RGEM and NAM dont look horrible for Friday. Were I to extrapolate, HH Friday night has it snowing for eastern 1/2 of state as arctic boundary approaches and looks to interact w/ coastal. Does coastal pop n save us...dunno, but like I said, its something.

Yesterday was well modeled for our area to be a zero sum flake total. Canderson saw like 20 and thats 20 more than he should have got. It's definitely been a challenging year, and we've sure have the fail part down pretty well...but like said so often, anyone that says fail, is right 70% of the time....without even looking at a map. And that takes no talent/skill whatsoever. This is a weather board, and the fun for some of us is to discuss (good and bad). This winter has been a great opportunity to learn (even if it's just another way to fail). Dont forget, we've also had years where "it wants to snow" in less than stellar patterns, and they've puzzled us in a good way. That's the fun of this. Here's to hoping for a good nooner set of runs, and if not...so be it.