pasnownut

and gave us this to watch instead. Much more plausible option that has support from CMC. I want a snowcane, but below is just fine w/ me. Ya know the saying....beggars...

wow...looks n ICE....

Yeah I'm seeing icesicles on back patio/railing and trees a bit. Not sure how long it'll hang on, but at least snow's gonna make it.

Now thats more like it... Looks a bit late for us, but plenty of time for changes. also fwiw, the trailer doesnt have enough time, and slides right of Va NC coast. Not a bit bothered, because as we've been seeing, its a rather active pattern setting up, so chances to score should be there.

agreed. Not sure how it would fizzle. Nothing in the atlantic to give reason for this to happen. Wonky is the word...

wow. This is really cool. I've wanted a drone, and now that you've shared this....i really want one. thx

welll at least we dont need to figure out what letter it is I saw that petering out as you suggested, and also thought it odd. Several models have it going bonkers for da fishies.. Not sure I buy that as open waters right now are ripe for development.

make sexual favor bets for the games....then it becomes a win win....just sayin

then we get....but who has more. It'll never end....and thats fine. Part of the fun. BTW, I shouldnt have "bragged" about our B team hangin tough...the A team then proceeded to trounce the B's. We are doing far better than expected. I'll take the positives and let things fall where they may. Eagles are playing well, but it will be tough to go deep into playoffs. Green Bay won the superbowl coming into post season at 8-8 so anything is possible.

I’m happy our B team is hangin with their A team.

18z gfs was plenty close enough for late week opp. And if that one doesn’t work there looks to chances a plenty. Will be shocked if we don’t score with a couple/few of them. 19 on way home from dinner in southern Lebanon county. 3 snowmobiles came in field and stopped for dinner. I was jealous but it was a bit thin for my liking.

0z Nam's quicker w/ onset of Sunday skating event, and further south w/ ice signal. Latching onto the cold already in place or will tomorrow go back warm? Mind you....In situs like this, this is NOT used for snow forecasts....I use it merely to see where the frozen vs wet boundaries...thermal profiles similar to 18z, so dunno what this really means...just looking for trends.. Now back to your beers/bevies or whatever suits you on a cold winters night.

18z Nam shows a slower onset to precip, giving our precious thermals a little more time to get scoured..and the maps down our way responded accordingly. Was easy to see on precip panels.

x2 I dont defend his pie hole...but I do defend his abilities. Sure he's gone off the rails a bit, but that doesn't take away his ability to sniff out a LR pattern. I'e learned alot from watching/listening to his "long ranger" over the years. So informative. Moreover...at least when he's wrong, he admits it and doesn't try to do side show antics to skirt it (like many do). He eats it...straight up (well he used to when I followed him). That dude knows more than any 10 of us in here, and yet takes shots from people that can barely read a weather map (and understand). Keyboard warriors like that really irk me. Do I follow him much anymore....no. I quit weatherbell a few years ago, but I respect his abilities regarding weather.

We need a sustained longwave pattern that looks sorta like below to get clippers. If you've watched 500mb pattern for last few years, we've not had sustained looks, only transient windows for them to occur. Also they are not very predicable and often pop up due to fast flow in NS.

Falls primarily as some kinda frozen for eastern 1/2 of state. Maybe a little drizzle at end for lower LSV. That could be a notable glaze if this look holds.

looking at nooner it looks like we start out in the mid/upper teens Sunday AM and yeah warm layer above is plenty sufficient to support ZR and no pingers.

Ditto. Bones too old for 0. Cold enough for snow is my cup of tea. We both know thats way too far out to "worry" about, but takeaway is that cold looks to hold, so we just gotta find some qpf to throw into it.

and to further that disco....just looking at 2m loops on 3k...there's about a 8-10 hr "window" where we get above 32 w/ 35 max at my house....so I'd say that roads n stuff should eventually be fine, but some spots may sturggle...especially if that 35 becomes 33. Gonna depend on how much icing accrues.

sorta yes n no. If you look at thermal progression, models have different depth of cold, so we need to look at winds to "scour" the valleys out. Verbatim IF cold holds (which if the gfs verifies (but is often a couple degrees too cold) we'd likely see the ice make it through as there is a brief window of warmth before the cold raced back in. If cold is shallow, ice accretion may be lost before said cold hardens up whatever we have otg. Here is my point we've lost 850's so one says....oh no big deal...what ice you talkin bout Willis?. This is "warmest" panel. Buutttttttt....Willis forgot to look at 2m temps at same timestamp. Verbatim thats deep enough surface temps to warrant concern. Sounding show how "deep the cold is...or isnt. As you can see the layer is very shallow (picked Lanco for soundings). Look at bottom of graph and chalk a line from the 0 straight up. We dont have much cold, but for this situ...its all about the surface and how long it takes to erradicate that little cold layer. Hope that helps a bit.

Yep, consensus has been growing for sure. Now that we got last night outta da way....I'm ready for the next one (beyond Sundays ice-which is nice cause it serves as pack retention agent...

This ones for you Bubbs....looks like we'll have the cold. Lets find some vorts n chat it up...

fwiw for sunday, gfs showing deeper cad signal. ICE ICE baby!

FYP....

Ditto in Akron. That last band added 1" to my early am obs. I shoulda measured, but my yard has 4-5" when walking through it.