pasnownut

Time for a group model hug....K for full discosure and further elimination of any bias, ..I'll post GEPS as it comes out as well. Verbatim panel before, it heads straight at us....sees us w/ swords n shields in hand, and says...hell no..not up for that fight....and heads NW to open water (and safer space than over us).

Some may.....

Looks like we might have a fight on our hands (like we didnt know that) GEFS is 3ast of op....GEPS west. Thats an eyebrow raiser. GEFS GEPS (and not good IMO)

Just saw this. If euro goes east a bit, I'd worry a lot less and this would now be an outlier. But we need to see continuation of trends to call this bunk.

Oops...try this one. Now that it may be getting past the due north phase, we can focus on the precious snow shield to NW and where banding sets up. Verbatim Mag to 2001kx is sittin in the catbird seat.

Getting there anyway. LP placement makes more sense IMO. Not saying its final solution by any means, but several of us have been thinking this would happen, so at least I'm not alone on the limb. lol Now that the cone looks to be narrowing a bit more....we can start worrying about how much..

This is what I've been waiting for

I get ya....but I'd still trade seats w/ you for this one.... Starting to think mix threat will be further mitigated, but still not sure if eliminated yet. That damn SLP coming due north chaps my ass. As of last pic I shared, it has to be the ULL doing the tug a lug in an attempt to stack which pulls it W until it hits the colder dome and heads NE. Thats just me spitballin though.

We're trying pal... Wishing you def bands and snowdrifts....

This should make a few happy. Jury is still out for me....

Good news is that while the ICON comes at us, it then scoots NE down around DC/Bal area. Mitigates some damage for us LSV'rs. 500LP still taling behind, and not vertically stacked, but would be close enough to be the cuprit for the tucked solutions. Still like the trends with enough time left.

Yours Truly, DT

.....and he thinks he's the weather god...knowitall. I dont take well to those kind.

Absolutely. Still may go in a bad/worse direction for us here in the LSV, so be prepared. Clean snow is probably not likely down/over here, but as little taint as possible would be the win IMO. We'll find out shortly.

I'll take 10 JB's over 1 of him....No joke. NO THANKS. Hoping you dont hang your weather hat on DT's mantle....

You bet. While we all love the snow maps and use them for fun....with the challenge of getting the pieces in the right place....its really not worth the fun/pain yet. With so many moving parts 500low/700low/ridge axis, the only thing that has been a stable piece (and largely why I've taken my "it'll be SE stance) - is the antecedent cold and HP that continually is showing up. You dont just bully that stuff around, and we are now seeing corrections as the cold is being realized. Nice CAD is showing up, and notably south, and with that mindset, I hope we get the couple adjustments needed for this to climb the coast and not sit over my head or retrograde like 0z sorta presented. Oh...and one other thing...ENS guidance still shows SE movement a definite possibility. Here's to a good day of tracking.

Could also be 50 miles west, but we still have enough ensemble guidance saying we are still in the game. Cone narrows today/night. Didnt stay up for GFS last night cause I still thought it had work to do to catch on, and knew the look wouldnt be great...yet. Seeing 6Z was looking more like its getting there.

While often discounted...when it shows continuity....we take. Gnight all.

Bingo.

wowzers. It's all about trends...until they go the wrong way....right. Gonna sleep on this and dream a little dream.

Germans have it a bit south. look at 540's. I dare say that this might be a good one incoming.

NAM looking good for sure...but before we start getting to chirpy...That HP to the north likely scoots and doesnt anchor, so that boundary will likely erode some, but yeah, verbatim an inland runner would hopefully be lower probs.

Slight jog West vs 12z.....correct?

I pointed out the 84 hr panels because thats when things are coming together, as that will have a notable effect to later panels (and why your coastal Carolina theory might hold some water. ) Until the deep south SLP position and 500's get better resolved, its premature to get "too wrapped up" no matter where one sits IMO (tempting for sure though).

Impressive cold w/ HP sitting on us. Verbatim I dunno how this cuts... And the big brother for the same timestamp. These aren't small differences.