pasnownut

Mesos did not do well for us here in SE last event. Many were showing 4+ 6+ additional and peeps were posting them....we all saw it. We got maybe 1-2 add'l at best....and that was inside 6hrs, so yeah, Mesos are gonna need to do well with this one for me (or others) to put much stock in them.

I literally had to read it 2x....then check to see if my iced tea was spiked....

This is exactly why I've been posting the trend GIF's. A couple subtle moves will make a notable diff. for many in here and quite frankly, a 50-75 mile shift, would affect 75% of this forum. Its quite easy to see. IF we can smooth out the SLP placements a bit and have less jumping around, the models might present a better (or worse ) solution. All of us are still in the game, and any further SE ticks would erode the warm nose at lower levels. Further NW...we know the drill. Anything further SE in SLP placement at the minimum, would save many from Zr and keep sleet as likely flavor of taint. NAM's have us cooked, but CMC/ICON/GFS/EURO are not far away from being back to decent. At 48hrs away, anyone hangin there hat on anything right now is a bold move IMO. If they get it right....props to them. Just not ready to concede I guess.

FWIW, GFS is a little better(thermally speaking) as well as SLP placement being a tick further E, which is now our way to salvaging some winter weather.

IF NAM verifies, I'd not see but a flake to 1" before brief sleet and zr. Ouch.

Yeah, thats what the 80% part of my statement represents.

I wish I didnt agree, but yeah, when taint is mentioned, it usually overpreforms 80/20.

I'd sign for that as well. Not a far fetched solution either. Most guidance has us safely in 3-6" ish. Throw some sleet on (wishcasting again) and dryslot us w/ a little mood flakes on tail end. Then cold comes to make it look Burle N Ives for a few weeks.

Yeah I think you guys are a lock, no matter what whiggle n jiggle this storm does. Were I you....i sit back, crack a Hi Life, and just wait and enjoy.

thats funny. I typed N Korea and China, then deleted...

Based on SLP path, that seems a bit surprising based on where they are in relation to SLP. I'd think CAD and antecedent cold thermals would protect them from much taint. 700's are just fine up there and I'd think if 850's erode, it'd be very short in duration. Huh. This is the only bad panel that exists on GFS for their region. Blues a plenty before and right after.

I'm wishing for that damn westward jog at most critical point of storm to go the hell away. In truth, I've watched a boatload of storms in my days, but this one takes the case in bouncing around. We should name it the T I double G R storm.

fwiw, 6z GEFS has a beauty of a 500 pass thats just slightly SE of Op. Sharing because it offers a little wiggle room (and would offer merit to further ticks SE). Thats a verbatim statement of what the model shows...not a wishcast (although in secret it really is).

wasnt just you. Blip on screen happened to me as well.

Just hope we make a game of it. We seem to be coming together at the right time. Defense really needs to show up.

Thank you...thank you....thank you....for keepin hope alive. RGEM just showed a nice front end thumping for many here. so why do we see this westward bump just below us? I'm thinking the 500lp is playing into it as its trying to stack, but it has been a painfully consistent feature of late. Just trying to understand whats causing it.

Yep, small differences, but slightly better at 500 as it ticked east at 84. surface looks a tad better than 18z as well. Still have some work to do though. I'd venture Central/Westers will approve of this run

Monday/Tues

here is what we need to overcome...

boy that little bit of retro action really screws our pooch.. this would suck.

many of my maps are stuck at 36. you on pivotal or tt

sure was. And what that means...dunno, but I'll take any +'s I can and at 3 days out...?

TT server crash imminent....

Precip shield notably larger/more expansive vs 18z. Looks like it took a big drink in the gulf

running behind you a bit, but that is a pleasant surprise for sure. Anxious to see what this may do up here.