pasnownut

we had ours going all weekend. Was nice. yeah this weekend continues to have some challenges. 6Z GFS has primary hangin on too long and screwin up the coastal. ICON/CMC track doesnt look horrible (but stay as primary, but dont have enough cold in place. GFS Ens are notably different GEFS says forget about it, and GEPS says hold on slick.... That said, tellies seem to support a better solution, but as we know, things dont always line up like they should. One thing I'll add to any that think this a slam dunk...look at last several runs of GFS for next weekend and how notable run to run changes have been. To me that says, the models are struggling a bit to figure something out....which doesnt help us weather nerds much. I like the 10,000 ft. view and trying to guess at what could or should happen, and not just what the models show, but maybe thats just me. Happy short week all.

18-22 was the range on the drive in to work. Coldest we've seen by a good amount.

then next panel as storm is almost over philly. Again I say hmmmmmm. Not sure I'd write this off quite yet.

Self made...just like those spring 50 degree days prior to snow the next day....just sayin what the models r showing. Thermals right as storm approaches near go time.

Not sure it gets it done, but its an interesting look. Gotta run. Meat calls. later gang.

18z GFS at 108 has a cold storm and almost wants to vertically stack.....hmmmm

yeah that would suck. I'd rather suppression depression over a wet weekend.

yeah thats not good. Hard to argue about that. 540's waaayyyy too far north. IF that coastal can get cranking...and thats a big if....you'd likely see thermals trend better for NE.

agreed. Thats how I saw it. Ens didnt help much as well, so window may be narrowing a bit.

thx. just checked and nooners didnt help much. Lets see how happy the 18zs feel.

around 6. Coming off smoker now but has to rest a bit.

and like Blizz, I'm not yet ready to give away late weekend chance at some fun for some. Still enough spread that no solution is close to a lock. 6z has a better track and thermals gettin better, but still notable run to run disparities, so we have some work to do. Ens diverge a bit as well, but euro and GEPS at 500 would give better shot a colder solutions. Blizz...go get this thing for us.

Welcome to winter and snow squall season. Guess this is a good reminder that things can pop up...no matter what the radar is showing. Smoking a brisket, and yeah, its BRISK out....see what I did there... Happy Sunday funday all. Looking forward to Turk week, family, and heading to the cabin on black Friday. Hope yall have a great short week.

that sounds sexy right there....

That's definitely a plus and verbatim would argue against a cutter solution, but could support a more progressive solution (which would be ok), even if not as big and wound up like GFS Op suggests.

Nice. That map sure has "the look".

Thats been a problem of late, and w/ the varying depth of cold, as it's been bouncing around, I'm guessing this will be one of a myriad of solutions....even if its the one most here are rooting for. Need that HP to anchor to keep the wet....white.

Yeah deform bands showing up as well. rocks NC down through true central. Wowzers.

Weather weenie rule reminder...... hug the one that gives you the most snow.

I have it on screen but it wouldnt feel right to steal his "thunder".

@Itstrainingtime was asking for a snow map . Someone go ahead. I already looked

this has northern pa as well as some tug hill locals on it. Tug looks pretty stout with a general 8-16", but for any that have been there, can attest that sometimes that can be a 0 or you can double amounts in any location. Just depends on where the firehose of snow sets up. Enjoy http://www.swedenhillsnocam.com/ https://www.northernchateau.com/w/centermenu.html Heres one I just found for Buffalo on the web. https://www.nittec.org/cameras/

man oh man. Looks like i need to start watchin my Tug Snow cams as well.

what the 0z giveth....the 6z took away...snow wise. That storm has been showing up for quite some time, so I'd think we'd all agree something is likely in that timeframe. When 0z has 540's over my house, to 6z in southern Michigan...I'd say the window is open a plenty for this one. Buckle up boys n girls. edit: i shoulda looked a the Ens runs, and they say window wide open, as there is little continuity for that Black Friday storm, and they show no cutoff low on the 500's, and have a more progressive look.

moving on from the lolfest above... GFS trying to go from flop to flip and gets critical thickness now to PA border for next Friday, but dont take my word for it....toggle back through the maps. takeaway is that post turk day is looking moist for many....just not sure if that moist can be frozen. Nooners say maybe for northers, and as its sub 240, who knows....500 maps within GFS suite are varied, and if the GEFS is right....that may be something to chat up.