pasnownut

stink eye...brown eye....pick one...or both. Just playing around but that one really brought up my blood pressure. Not AGAIN. Two retros in a month. No thanks.

Looking at 258-264 will likely get the cringe factor going again. Past weekend redux, only larger. Westers will need avalanche beacons to go get groceries....I'd need a boat

its all in the spacing. 18z has a slightly better look. The bigger Thurs gets, the less room for amplification for your storm. While normally I'd sacrifice small in hopes for bigger, Thurs, likelys gets us looking like winter. Gonna be hard for me to root against it. But I'm just being greedy.

My Mo in Law winters just south of that green blob, like 15 miles from Mexico border. If I share this with her, she might take me out of the will (after thinking about it....I'm not sure I'm in it )

We all approve of your logic.... Sound....very sound.

You forgot that one must divide by 2 first. I'll take 2.6 and be fine w/ it.

We are........... does that help?

It actually comes more closely in line w/ most other guidance. That trough axis needs SLP coming outta lower Tennessee valley for us to cash in. Slp that pops in NC w/ a stout 1041 HP nicely anchored above screams wide right as 500 was lagging back below kpit and didnt drop in or tug the slp back west. Can it happen, sure, but it didnt here.

oof...at 90 it takes the progressive look and scoots wide right... brushes LSV w/ flurries while beach snow lovers rejoice. Sorry.

At 78 -84 it looks a bit better for #2, but looks to lose #3. SLP now off NC coast Put your eggs in Trainers basket.

at 72 its marginally better for Trainer storm, but I'm just being an optimist....

regardless of part #2....part #3 for sunday has started to tease a bit....we'll see in a few minutes.

Euro serves a nothinburger for part #1....but it never really had it on its menu...

fwiw. thru 36 much the same as 0z. 540's dissect the state from kpit to kpoconos. Precip on kpit SW doorstep. I'm just playin around as I know most dont really have much care about this little event....but I do, so play along w/ me.

Looking over nooner GFS and Ens, suggest that regardless of the weekend, whatever snow that comes should have staying power, and through EOM. I may be a little bummed today, but game is far from over...even for me. Hoping el Kingo has the same ideas. Moving forward tellies are muted signals, and AOA average w/ MJO still in 7. All in all we should have chances if Ens Guidance verifies. Was that better Trainer??

All good.... All good... While I'm generally positive, I'd say I'm more of a realist that looks for silver..(or white) linings. My deck of cards is rather diminished, and bluffing rarely goes nowhere in this game, but I still have a pile of chips to play w/ (time wise). I'm sure you know my area. From firetowers North of Brickerville, its winter....come south to Ephrata, it was rather painful how quick and how much it eroded last evening. Is what it is.

are you holding onto snow cover? Looking for closest drive to go make face down naked snow angels.

Almost wasn't worth the time to put the map together....I'm gonna round up....so I can say I got 1".

Yep, was worried about that the other day and Bubbler was suggesting the same. We need this one to over preform as its my only hope for winter landscape, unless the nooners come north. For weekend "event", I havent felt good about it, and still dont, but can be easily swayed when we are talking up snow.... Just slightly too progressive IMO. JMO's so someone go prove me wrong...I'm down w/ that.

How many cases/kegs of Yingying must I pay you to bring it here...??

Well I'm not ahead. Actually the difference between your yard and my yard have been more than notable for the events we've had. As I drive to Etown everyday, I/'ve seen both. Just a fact and not perspective for MBY. I'd be happy if I had the snowcover that I see here in Etown. Just jealous and I'm allowed to be as we are about to head into a potentially BORING pattern w/ chances of clips until a reshuffle. Went to my parents up off rt 72 last evening...its a winter wonderland. Its brown in Ephrata and thats not being sassy...thats just the brown ground truth. Please go work on your storm for this weekend. I'm counting on you.

You guys should enjoy the deep winter look for the foreseeable future. Congrats I'll get my 1" on Thurs and try to figure out how to preserve it till the clipper parade comes...as the southern stream looks to get suppressed/shut off after this weekend. Boy, the LSV sure is working the jip zone rather well this year. @@Voyager, can you ship some snow down to mby please??

I know I know....but as much as I wanna believe, I dont just put faith in the model that shows me what I want...I put faith in the model that produces results. Am I saying its wrong...not for a second, but its 1 piece of guidance that has little support outside of its own ens, and we are already down to 4 days. Yes, the GFS at 102 looks a little better and is trending, but the separation between it and the Euro is notable and makes me a bit suspect. I'm not leaving the table, but I'm holding chips for this round. After yesterday, I'd think that a reasonable approach.

I like how you think, and will gladly step aboard your snow train bud. Like I said earlier today, ens guidance took a little step back for me from yesterdays event.

go look at ICON for comparison. More neg tilt and still slides right. Like you said, plenty of time, so lets hope it ticks towards the Euro. I hate saying that because I'm now rooting/wishcasting for a model that hasnt been up to par.