pasnownut

They sure are lurking just south of the M/D line.

Cloudy here but satellite loop suggest a brief window for brightening skies before frontal passage as Bubbles alluded to earlier. Not sure the window is large enough to do much, but we'll find out in a few. I have .26 in the bucket, and would be surprised if we crack more than .75 total for the event. Still alright by me.

Its undeniably true. Just remember that even modified temps can yield the results most of us want. Not sure who called for a hard freeze. I just looked back thru saturday and didnt see it. But maybe I'm dizzy from my last fall. NBD ( I was 20 feet up a tree last weekend tho ) While only a limited view, and one of the models known to run warmer than depicted, here is last few runs for GFS in 24 hr increments. I picked 18z for "warmest" temps. Even if they warm by a few degrees, this still likely gets it done for favored locals (with latest timestamp trending colder). All things aside, you have a better chance of winning when betting on the hot hand, but there's enough continuity for this one to have legs, and its well into the mid range, so iI guess we'll see. I dont care if I end up being right....not why I'm here...but I do care about snow, and for some, this isnt trending away.....yet.

I'm going to reiterate that I'm not thinking we do anything snowwise down here. Likely too early for us. My thoughts from a few days back were the easy pickings, the normal norther wester crew NC/Laurel peeps. NOT us....even though they are part of us. Just setting the table for reasonable expectations. This limb feels a bit safer than the last (and weather world mentioned it last night....so they are in my camp

and even if we get jipped down here, i hope the norther folk get the goods, as they still have some deficit to make up for. My well at cabin has slightly recovered from summer lows, but not by much. Mind you thats merely a single point obs, but its all i got for you

im at .04 so far, so yeah weve got some "ground to cover" rainwise

looks like we all get some, but emphasis is north

As per that statement earlier this week about first chance at flakes (second limb I went out on after first one cracked), still looking good for first flakage mid next week for normal lucky ones.

East wind for me. Up 1 degree in last hour at the big 50 12 08:53 E 3 9.00 Fair CLR 50 46 86% NA NA 30.24 1024.0 12 07:53 E 3 10.00 Fair CLR 43 41 49 42 93% NA NA 30.24 1024.1 but this will likely win out for the last warm day. Forecast is for 68. I'll say 71

West based Nao would be nice.

happy nooner run says first flakes still possible next week. No money moves from my stash....yet. If it happens or not, the time many of us love is getting closer. Enjoy for the next couple hours before the real happy hour runs muck it up.

at least my 75 is safe...... or already dead by some....

yeah thats a bit crazy, but you've suggested you hold the cold in winter so i'm guessing that's part of it as we cool off into autumn and your geography likely plays a factor in holding the cold (creek bottom correct?)

while that may be in winter, its early fall, and as the Nina is expected (and likely starting to rot away already - al la enso disco), I'd be cautious at just using general Nina climo and say x causes y (even though its influence is larger right now...its sounds like its likely to start fading fast. Enso is one in a myriad of factors to be considered when thinking longer term. If one loops back over the last several days of 500's on guidance, you'll note that its not really less defined, its just a different look to to the ridge/trough axis, which IMO is rather normal in seasons of transition as the fight of seasons is on, and that plays a large factor in forcing. Something for you to think about in the macro scale of things.

I saw 40 for our bottom, which was 2 deg. warmer than yesterday.

call me crazy but I like dreary autumn days when it rains and sends leaves in to clog up street drainage systems...... I dont like days n days of it though.

0z 6z

Looking like great autumn weather coming up through next week. Looking at mid next week, I'd step out on another limb and suggest somewhere in PA sees first flakes, as there is a notable frontal passage mid next week and enough instability to maybe touch something of the frozen variety off.

Great time in the northwoods this weekend. Nice early season colors showing up. Looking forward to more colors in coming weeks. Also looks like 76 late last week made my limb crack.... That said, it really does look like a cool period coming up. Frosty pumpkins for many. (spotty frost and 38 at my house this am)

Here's what the maps are currently showing for warmest panels. If you look at the mid and upper levels, they look supportive of 2m temps as ridging is brief and with other variables considered, me thinks 70's may be tough (but of course we may flirt w/ it as you dont have to head too far south to get to numbers that will make me bust.

used a blend of op and ens guidance, and I dont see any 70s. yeah upper 60's but once beyond the mid week warmth, it cools nicely. Point i was making is that normalish kinda fall weather and no anomalous warmth looks to be looming anytime soon. Normal is just fine w/ me.

saturated ground will surely temper some of the warmth. Its been quite cool of late and soil temps likely responded.

Just looking at the 500 maps and ens guidance and I'm going to pull a Bastardi or Weatherworld long ranger and say that we dont see temps above 75 until next spring. Tomorrow may tickle that number and the 13th has a bulge in the midwest that if rolled over a bit further east could be a spoiler to my guess as well, but I'm sticking w/ it as there is enough ridging out west and enough push of cold from the land of the canooks to make me feel safe for now.

wow. thats nuts. NOTHING like that round here....Hope the carnage isnt too bad on your casa.

huhh..was breezy down here in lanco but not too bad.