pasnownut

Yesterday was well modeled for our area to be a zero sum flake total. Canderson saw like 20 and thats 20 more than he should have got. It's definitely been a challenging year, and we've sure have the fail part down pretty well...but like said so often, anyone that says fail, is right 70% of the time....without even looking at a map. And that takes no talent/skill whatsoever. This is a weather board, and the fun for some of us is to discuss (good and bad). This winter has been a great opportunity to learn (even if it's just another way to fail). Dont forget, we've also had years where "it wants to snow" in less than stellar patterns, and they've puzzled us in a good way. That's the fun of this. Here's to hoping for a good nooner set of runs, and if not...so be it.

Absolutely. No matter where this ends up...still plenty of time for this to move around a bit. One thing this event has is that it has trended back west in the last 2 days, and not OTS like the last few, so there is something different about this one. Does is stop today, or continue eeking towards us, we'll find out soon. IF that ULL dives in a tad sooner, it can make a notable difference in trajectory as it comes up at us.

technically its still a miss...but Euro definitely came west w/ SLP and precip shield now into eastern 1/3 of Pa. at 0z it was still into NJ. Summary of nooners, is that they all came around to the idea of a storm. While some of us are a bit more snakebit than others, consensus cannot be denied....just debated. If one follows the theme of the season...yes, Trainer is on point to be worried (and I worry right w/ him), but there is something to watch for sure.

GFS and GEFS in close agreement for this weekend....

at 120 its about 100 miles NNW of 6z. Eastern Pa hit verbatim. As depicted, its not gonna be big for us but it sure is something much of NE will gladly sign for.

and fwiw, tellies still looking alright as we head into FEB. AO starting to look more - and that has shown enough promise to get it done around here. NAO neut and PNA -. Sounds like zonal look IMO but w/ AO leaning - we could be on the right side of the boundary. MJO still stuck in 7. Verbatim not likely a big storm pattern but not a shutout either.

ICON started nooners off w/ a nice tug west.

congrats and hope your alright.

1/2” here. Like I said better than WWA non event from earlier this week. Road and everything coated

Steady light snow for last 1/2 hour. Already better coverage then WWA we had earlier this week. Son and I cut 3 or 4 qds of wood today, turkey in smoker and footballs on. Life is good. Enjoy the mood flakes gang.

yeah things really "went south"...lol....for my Tuesday gig. NS got a bit out ahead and instead of working with the SS vort....it screwed things up. Just get my ground white and I'll be fine.

GFS really lost it at 6z. That concerns me, but hoping it was just frozen pipes and that 12z still shows. NWS now shows r/s likely for Tuesday, so I'll take that as a win. Headed out for the day. Happy weekend all.

9 here in Akron

Thx. I saw it and yes, its nice. 500's look great and only concern is that the Ens guidance is notably east of the op, so I'm cautious w/ my optimism. Normally we'd say "right where we want it", but the southern slider theme cannot be ignored this year....

Per NWS -19 at the cabin. Thats the lowest I've ever seen it. Brrr

Blizz, I guess i should state that I'm getting to a point w/ basically no snow cover here in Lanco, that I'm not up for sacrificing ANY event at this juncture. Went to Palymra yesterday and they have enough to snowmobile. Im brown down here.

Yeah I saw them. Central NYS and up into NE, 40-50+through the run. Next weekend was an eastern Pa event and verbatim a NJ storm. Its a big one for sure tho.

Tell the Yargers I said hey.

and as soon as I saw the separation, that's the big problem as the SS has no reason to climb and will likely scoot of Carolina coast. Arggh

You are the Eveready Bunny of optimism. I'm getting a wee bit nervous about "my" storm. Looks like its following the lead of "trainers" storm....lol Early AM runs just pushed it way south. Flow at 500 has been flattening and losing the troughy look from a couple days ago and may be the kiss of death. Not giving up yet for sure, but its concerning.

I too am excited at "the look", but your point is a valid one.

for the models that have it, they sure do have a doozy. I'm not convinced its a "pattern changer" either. 850 temp anomalies show plenty of blue and while not as deep, still enough to get plenty done in Feb. Last look at tellies wasnt too terrible either. Only "bad" one was PNA heading -. Could be overcome by AO that still looks to be slightly - as well.

Yeah I'm not picky about what kind of snow....just want snow. My hunch from a couple days ago still has a shot at something. Hope so, and if not, well just another way to fail. Me thinks a nice little WAA event would ease the pain of us snow starved ones, while those that have concrete base just get a refresher.

What makes you think that??

Anything's better than nothing....right?