pasnownut

But it did come south a bit, and joins camp w/ GFS and NAM. Snow maps show a tick SE and now has KPIT and Wspt now getting some frozen. 0z was extreme northern tier and NW PA event. Based on last few events, GFS seemed to lead the way, so I'm gonna hug it, till something better (not hotter) comes along.

Add CMC to the steppin backwards camp.... GFS and NAM both stepped forward, and hoping for the win.

Verbatim its a far cry better than it was a short time ago. It's a step in the right direction.

I'll take me some GFS...please and thanks. ICON stepped back a bit. A tad more ridging out front or less press from frontal boundary. Too busy to deep dive, but thats likely what happened. GFS is getting really good...IF IF IF it continues to press the boundary.

for MBY I dont like this one bit..... But thanks for sharing. I live underneath that blue dot in lanco, but closer to the 2 and this represents what i've been seeing.

and as I perused the overnights....through the end of the runs, I'm not seeing any big sustained changes... Looping throuh Ens guidance, outside of a couple brief warmups, the 2m temp anomalies show much more blue in the east. Here is the end of the run, and yes, I know it can change, but everyone was chatting up a pattern change and the window closing. if it does, it's a brief one.

It's winter, and If I don't have anything to track, I've got no chance at snow.... I'll keep trackin thank you..... Most in this forum have had snow on the ground for a few weeks now, and for some well over a month - to 2 months in northern tier. While I realize much of the fun is the thrill of the chase, If i had what some of you have, I'd be just fine w/ where things are. Thats just me though. I like the look of winter. As I "get around" between my job and my travels north, I've seen what others have, and I'm jealous. Hasnt been great but this beats the hell out of a shutout, close the blinds pattern...if you truly are a snow lover. JMO's

But to that I say show me ANY model that has not been lost at some point this season. Ask a red tagger how frustrating it's been . I bet they'd agree that nothing has come easy wrt forecasting here in the east this year. No wonder us amateurs are frustrated. Down here in Lanco, decent snows w/ staying power have been all around us....and we get car toppers. It's still mostly brown down here. I'll just hope n pray the 6zGFS snow map is 1/3 - 1/2 right and I'll be giddier than all hell. 15" OTG this weekend at the cabin. It's DEEP DEEP winter up there. Snow has been on the ground since last weekend of November up there.

Go pull the snow map up for this weekend as well as beyond. Dont have coffee in your mouth. You'll be cleaning up your screen. Fun to look at.

Bringing the boundary closer to PA (in this large scale regime) might be the way to getting the goods. Just need that 540 to stay below (as currently depicted) and we might be fighting over who gets the most.

verbatim the gfs after brief warmup would arguably be the most tracking we'd be doing this winter. LIne em up....... and lol

I'm guessing you have snow cover..... Some of us don't and will take their 1.5 and like it.....or not.

dont look at 3k....natsomuch

RGEM still cuts lanco in 1/2 w broom vs plowable, but it did back into eastern pa w/ more broom snow.

GFS is a closer miss....

Looking like the snows out in front of the arctic boundary are showing up again. tha'll set the mood right for many that already have snow, and help those of us that have been staring at snow piles, as we've been brown for a while.

The stuff I do for the forum to get snow........... I'll be at the cabin snowmobiling where there is a solid 12"+ otg so I'll not be complaining. Son has to stay home for snow removal (heavy equip operator), so thats the only bummer for me. I hope this sneaks back up on us and ya'll get pummeled. I'll be cheerin yas on from Tioga and look forward to more trackin next week.

As per disco above, they are discounting the model that many of us have been thinking deserves credit, the GFS. How funny is that?? This disco above is why I love this sport and why peeps should'nt speak in absolute terms when discussing storms. To see the "big dogs" struggling with this should give us a sense of calm...well it does me anyway, and makes alot of our disco in here legit IMO. Hoping todays runs tug this thing further west and get some of us back in the game. I wont be here, so it'll probably snow a foot.

ooof....someones looking to get trolled.........

Was out on client meetings, and it sounds like I missed a whole lotta nothing....just like my snow bucket.... Seeing the chatter about the Euro vs GFS, and yeah GFS (if this verifies, and probably will) has been pretty darn steady...and not in a good way for us.

oof. that IS harsh...But like you said, often typical when systems are still blossoming at or just below our latitude. Gotta root for quicker coastal.

I've not looked. My concern is going a bit against the suggestion of interaction of the waa snows w/ the arctic boundary and the bombing LP offshore. IF GFS is correct, I can see it presenting like a miller b where a jip zone is sandwiched in between and a tight gradient (as you suggested NAM shows) is a legit threat. Thats why I"m hoping NAM is correct w/ SLP placement as it has a better interaction because of closer spacing. Dunno...

fwiw, 6z GEFS has many members W of mean. Still says it aint over yet.... While its only slight, 50-75 miles can make a diff for easters in PA

I get it man. If we trend E today....put a fork in another one. NAM is notably west from most other guidance, and may be an outlier....or a trendsetter. We find out in next couple hours.

also a bit slower in progression from 6z Every little bit helps as this thing goes boom.