pasnownut

@mahantango#1here are 850's for same time stamp. And fwiw, i'm not saying this is correct in the end, but it clearly depicts what we have to overcome thermally to get those precious frozen varieties. and after storm is largely past us

with slp below pit, your thermals are going to erode a bit w/ SW wind, and if you look at mesos, the SW component never really turns NW. as storm is pulling out, you can see they've yet to shift ever after SLP has passed by to our E. Thats whats working against us.

I actually think its one of the harder parts to forecast, as ground temps play into that part of the forecast and that's not really "weather". I'd think it better to play it safe, but we all know you'd hear b!tchin either way....I sorta feel for them in icing events. its 33 and plain ol rain here...what a bust vs. its 32 here and a skating rink....why weren't we warned.... boy I wish i was headed to the cabin tonight. They ARE gonna get a shellackin. My son is headed up w/ friends tomorrow mornin. Told him to take losta pics. Good chance at 20+ OTG after this event.

lol....and i the under

Since snow maps are being used to show how bad this snow event may be for some of us (which is just fine), I'll throw this one out for the masses. Coming from the leader of the model pack as well, so you can decide how many chips you wanna throw down on it verifying..... While still "bad" for me, I'd bet many here would give body parts for this to verify. If only............. Stare at it long and hard, cause in a few hours it goes poof....Hope you get a good chuckle like I did.

Crashing.............

wow, its bright as can be down here in brownville.

After the deep cold of late (especially the mins), its hard not to feel good on a day like today. Enjoy!

You'll have the least amount of taint and less duration in liquid form IMO. SW winds no matter where SLP is below us, are still SW winds. Frontal boundary, as I've said all along, is the key to victory for all. The quicker it gets here is time we dont lose to taint....and its all about the taint.

6z 850s nooner's. Now that's what I call a tick.. Is it enough...not sure, but headed in right direction.

6z nooner

today was the day that it should. I've got nothing to lose at home (well a 10' patch in backyard), so NBD for me

I'm telling ya....its out to score a coupe, or it has an affinity for eatin crow. I really like that its eekin south again (so did NAM) as well as shows a quicker changeover here. Hoping the Euro comes in a bit better as well and we might actually have more than consolation snows.

Nah....just a great place to visit/vacation. I never expect anything close to what they get, but make it a priority to go up often enough to get my snow fix (when I dont have it down here). While this pattern sure is tricky, knowing your climo and how things role in ones hood should make it easier for one to set expectations when looking at maps. That keeps me in check and rarely out of house money when placing bets.

One benefit, is that for those who have been on the snowy side of what has fallen, it has been retained (and hopefully enjoyed). You and I have lost basically 4 weeks of cold to brown ground....that is a kick square in the kahunas.

Absolutely. It's why when I post, i often give my "why" statement....to validate my reasoning right or wrong. Hell, that DT post that tango just put up at least has DT suggesting WHY he thinks the cold will be a challenge. Right or wrong, at least he gives reasoning. Some people need to be reminded that you don't have to "like" what someone says, to respect what they put out, as long as they explain the WHY. Wow...I don't care for DT, but still defended him.....see?? This is one tricky ass deal coming up, and some will have smiles and others heartbreak... I know that Lanco typically sits on the heartbreak side, and doesn't do well wrt these type of deals, but think many in here have quite an event possible w/ a plethora of frozen to contend with. Today/tonight we start to draw the lines (and hope they dont look like some of last nights .

Your always hot pal....

37 was my high for Tuesday. Thought it was to be around 40-42?? Ground truth, it really doesn't matter much. It's been plenty cold, and the diff for those who have the concrete base is not much. Even thought its early Feb, you're ALWAYS gonna have a bit of melt off. It's normal and should be expected and not "part of a new normal" IMO. Unless someone has data to the contrary....the reality is that for those that have a concrete base, many areas are 1-3" thick which is highly susceptible to some meltoff. Go up north where the concrete/snowpack is legit. ONLY meltoff is places that have been plowed.

you know I want the GFS/Euro to be right wrt SLP and precip being advertised, but once again, just north and west of HBG will likely be a notably different event than down here south of the mtns (thinking frozen vs non frozen). As I've stated for the last 2 days, we need the cold press to get here quicker and SLP to slow a bit (MBY does anyway). 4" of snow has not really been showing on anything other than GFS down here (and as we all know, TT maps dont break it down well, so likely much of that frozen is IP/ZR). Just watching boundary layers/thermals tick back NW is a kiss of death for LSV. Just cant polish that turd pal. For us down here, it is what it is and has been all too often. If I lived in Magville to Voyagerville, I'd be watchin like a hawk....and I'm rootin for all peeps N and W of there to get the goods.

wow...that sure is quite the "mix". Hope you guys get hammered. I'd love me a good sleetfest w/ a little snow on top before it shuts down. Not likely, but not impossible at 2.5 days out.

Great (well not really) post bud. Well done.

LSV was never really in this one. We were teased early on w/ SE ticks, but nothing near enough. No surprise at all. I'da been happy for a bit of consolation frozen stuff, and still think it happens a bit. I said it a yesterday, this is and always one to watch from pit to poconos and pts NW. Norther and westers rejoice once again. We'll get one sometime...this year next year...who knows. Time for some who are longing for it, to get in car n roadtrip a bit. Northern Pa likely to have 15-18" snowpack after this event. They'd be happy for your business....go enjoy the winter wonderland up there.

It's been a challenging year for tracking vs Mag's season to date totals... I like what mag posted, and as I suggested earlier, the key is to get that boundary as far south prior to go time. I'm largely in trouble here in the LSV w/ some back end taint to snow, but were I in true CTP to NW'sers, I'd be watching this like a hawk. With the qpf and trajectory that is shown, whomever sits on the cold side, is going to be in for a nice event.

i agree w/ canderson that timing rarely works for cold press wrt events like this. That said, the way to the promise land is for the boundary keep pressing (like 18z NAM is ticking away at), and get boundary far enough south that we dont need to wait. Also would like to see the SLP slow a bit, which give us time for boundary to eek south.

0z 12z