pasnownut

Yep. We finally get the storm track, but not enough cold for us LSV'rs. HRRR is showing this rather well. I'm on that limb with ya pal, so if it breaks, your not alone. if it were a couple degrees cooler going in...I'd be a tad more excited....but I'm not.

Flying back from FL was a bit fun yesterday afternoon. Wasnt too bad, but last hour was rather roller coaster ish. Glad we werent coming back last night. Looks like we have a chance at some slushy accums tomorrow. Looks like a blue mtn north special incoming. Hope y'all enjoy your slushy couple inches (for those that get it). Car topper is my bar down here.

Yeah it looks like things are close enough to not write them off, but I'm not sure its sustained...more of a window of opp IMO. I see several cutters with post frontal cold...largely a repeat of what we've been seeing. Per ensemble guidance, several day period around green beer day might have some legs, as the cold dome favors eastern Canada, and can be tapped into, but it doesnt appear like troughing is deep enough in the east to get it done IMO. Most of us that have started to check out just know that sun angles n stuff start to show up in whatever we can eek out anyways, and that said, March needs to be a go big or go home kinda deal to make it last a little (well for me anyway). Tellies havent really changed much (not very favorable for NAO/AO for us easters with a neutral look at best), and verbatim, after that mid month window, they suggest a slam the door shut kinda look for us snow hounds as the AO heads for the true Arctic and warm boundary soars north. Spring will be springin for sure, and even if we see normalish, we all know its really tough after mid month, and if the tellies hold...were done/cooked after that. If trainers boy is right about April, it really doesn't matter to me, as the difference between 45 n rain vs 55 n rain....for winter lovers...who cares. While we may sneak 1 or 2 shots in, it is what it is...and I'll sure take em, but I'm not seeing enough to get remotely excited about. Keep searchin pal...you deserve a good one in your name, and I'll be happy to cheer you onto victory. I'll be glad to pull out shovels/blower...heck even sleds for one more go, but the realist in me is just writing this year off as damaged goods. Maybe next year....

a 384hr GFS map.........

Not sure I'm going w/ the worst because we've had stuff to track, but lets just say the digital snow slaughtered the actual snow (and yes, I know it usually does) - but at least when 6" is modeled and we get 3-4"....we still got something. This year natsomuch. The phrase "craptastic" should now be put into the dictionary of weather terminology.. Craptastic - 21-22' potential vs realized snow totals in the LSV.

If there was 3-6" of snow OTG, I'd be right w/ ya.....But to me personally....meh... I'm a snow hound. What else can i say? Hope those who have white, enjoy it for as long as they can.

snow cams in Tug/Lowville/Old Forge area look decent, but not sure how much. I'd guess they got 6+, but a webcam is not the most accurate way to measure..

seeing the landscape on drive in, I'd say it was rather uniform in my .1 accretion estimate. I'm sure the microclimate thingy could prove that wrong in certain areas, but Lanco was a run of the mill minor event.

Just confirmed Coudersport to Galeton areas received 2" of snow/sleet. Underperformed up there for sure. Sledders are NOT happy.

Just having driven 28 miles to work, it was a nothingburger....and I'd say GET TO WORK!!!

JMO's but neutral aint gonna cut it in March (we'll I guess you'd say it is)...cause we'll be getting cutters or wrong side of boundary as we need NAO to suppress the flow in the east. Believe me when I say I wanna be wrong.

Glad you guys are getting the goods sleet wise. Thats what I was hoping for down here. Had a little bit at onset, then ZR took over. I'd say we verified the WWA w/ prob .10 ice accretion, but driving into office was just fine. Only ice spots were bridges (typical), and they were just slush. Also looks like northern tier only got a few inches of snnow at best (as per cams that i look at). Couple guys are headed up w/ sleds....and I don't think they'll be happy. Maybe the next one gets us.

when you see a primary driving into NW Pa, I dont care what the models show, we torch ..... Yes, HP is in a nice spot, but without transfer sooner or notably south of MD line, its just not gonna work for most of us. I saw very little CAD showing on the models, and yes temps are marginally ok for onset, but no pronounced wedge showed, and its just really hard to get long duration frozen w/ SLP track like that, unless antecedent cold is stout. We just dont have that here. Yes, we are gonna ice for a few hours, but surface is marginal at best, so without sleet, I'd think zr will even be less than modeled until you get to MSV and points NW. if one looks at the 0z NAM, you can see much less snow even for northern tier counties. Not trying to piss in anyone's cheerios but it is what it is.

surprised to see 29 on way into office. actually saw about a dozen lost and lonely snowflakes while stopping for coffee. Not sure ground will be frozen when the plethora of wintery precip gets here, but I down w/ whatever we get. Roads were being brined when i came in as well.

I've been a skeptic for sure, but gotta say this one may trend in our favor. 0z Nam's went notably south. HP is doing its thing and mesos starting to show it. I didnt see much of a CAD feature going into nooners, and looking over thermal profiles we are on the edge down here. IF NAM is even 1/2 right, we have some winter varieties headed our way. Gotta say I'm a bit surprised...and happy. Bring on the sleet aleet...

withough snowpack zr is only good when frigid temps and snow follow it....otherwise....no thanks.

NAO/AO are not looking very good, which is my worry. EPO going - should help ridge axis out west, but PNA going - offsets and suggests zonal at best (which doesnt do it in Morch), w/ likelyhood of SER being close enough to play spoiler IMO. If Im missing something, tell me where you think I'm off base. I/we be glad to hear your thoughts. I'm no kid, but I'm still learning. Thx boss.

I picked the 2 that look best to me. I, like many down here in LSV often are left waiting for the cold, and while we usually get it, its a few hours late (and when best qpf has already scooted by. That said, the GFS has 2m temps that have frozen in our forecast, but 850's are right on the cusp of IP vs Zr here. 700's look ok I'm pulling for the sleetfest, but am wary for sure. by 48, you can see we are cooked. Still enough time to convince me/others that it may happen though.

Well said man. Well said. FWIW I want you to be wrong as well....but think you end up close to really right. I 80 and N is best area for troubles with best likelyhood a decent winter weather being rt6 from Tioga/Bradford counties and east (assuming the cold gets deep enough in those areas). If it doesnt, then they would likely deal w/ more ice IMO

It's definitely trying to suck me back in.... HP doin its thingy up in da land of da Quebecians Just not sure how much further south we can get thermals for us Southern folks. I'd take a sleetfest as a big win down here.

Hey, I hope it can put a jewel back in it's broken crown....

Y'all know that I'm not afraid of being "that guy"..... Just callin it as I see it (right or wrong), but the timing of the whole shebangy has just been off....and the result is typically a close miss at best. My hopes from a couple weeks ago, was that the next reshuffle coming up would lock in better in the east, and w/ wavelengths shortening as spring approaches, that we'd get some chances, but IF MJO heads into 4/5/6 coupled w/ the other indicies previously mentioned, it just doesnt scream potential IMO. Mind you, I'm no expert whatsoever, but just using my know/edge (and wee bit of skill that I may posess) from past years. That said, yes, we can still score as the wavelengths start to change, but on a weather map, that in my mind is nothing more than what we've been seeing most of the winter IMO, as we really need the NAO/AO to help us as we get into March but that's not looking likely as of now, so I'd think SER/WAR will likely be a more stable and unwelcomed feature IF the tellies verify as I'm seeing them. Lets hope for changes...and quickly. Feel free to disagree or pick apart my thoughts. (I'm headed to client so I'll be back on after HH).

Thanks bud. We've been told that very statement from those we've discussed w/. As of today, masks are now optional....one step closer to normal.... I was wondering how we'd look with the mask tan lines...

We were informed that its best to get the drink passes, so I'll never know until a manager approaches me about my "consumption problem" Hope you find that chica you are looking for as well...otherwise....i'll send pics.

really needed to look at the girl in the middle to see what she was doing. Not sure many/any women ever did "that" while stalking me....