pasnownut

Loop back through the last 4 on hour runs of both GFS and Euro Ops, and you'll see the GFS being notably more consistent. Then seeing the GEPS and GEFS looking similar up top, makes me think it has a clue to what may happen. Euro at 168 on 500mb panels is a few hundred miles W of EPS at same time stamp. That would argue for a potentially more easterly SLP placement and potentially notably different solution. I reiterate, I share what Im seeing to add substance to where my head is....and how it gets there. NOT because I think I'm correct.

Did your guy suggest why he thinks its a no go? Would be great to here why peeps think not..especially if they are correct. PNA heading + with NAO/AO still neg suggests ridging out west and trough in the east(much like todays GFS shows). Mind you im not banking on the GFS to be correct, but the presentation seems logical and "fits" in my mind. Of course that doesnt mean a storm cant cut, but thats the 10 million dollar question that someone needs to help us understand.

Wow. Well it sorta looked like that for 1 run. Wish he didnt raise they hypometer so much. I miss the old Joe.

Atta boy. Probably making Voyager a tad jealous... Have one for me.

may need it cause if this were easy to figure out (cept for the few that think they already do)...this is the fun and part of the game.

toggling back n forth between the majors, out to 132 they are pretty similar. They divulge beyond that w/ the GFS having a deeper trough (hence the better solution) vs the Euro much less diggy/troughy. As i stated above, GFS suite looks similar, so thats a plus. Thats what I'm focusing on in the next couple days...upper air...not surface. I'd think by late weekend we should have a better idea of what we may need....sleds or boats.

Just looked. Thats one hella frontal passage. Not sure what to take from the constant cutter look that is a new default for many/most events. Not sure I'm buying what its selling, but the Euro has a similar look, so they shouldnt be discounted even tho we hope n pray they are wrong in many ways. GFS ens vs OP at 174 are not too far off at 500, so that should make one feel that they may be onto something. Maybe Blizz or someone else can post the Euro/Ens for same timestamp to see how wide the goalposts really are at this juncture.

Lols. Sounds like fun no matter the weather. Enjoy pal.

Yeah. That would make for lots of leftovers for those of us that cook for family and need to get rid of food that’s been purchased or prepared in advance.

Well this is a nice lunch break. Be careful. Optimism is only approved by other subs and certain few. I’ve seen no snippets so proceed with caution. Storm or no storm, the tellies do support this and have for several days btw. joking aside… nice run and like cash said, maybe too nice. I want my kid home and not stuck in airport damnit.

oof. that sucks. Sorry bout the damage. Hoping the roof didnt get damaged too much.

You can add the CMC to the list that has something decent and close. Consensus is all we can hope for right now. I'm on the road seeing clients rest of the day, so I hope you guys have some good nooners to look over. And, if they are bad....its part of the game. Fret not. Many more runs to parse over in the coming days.

and IF the models have a clue, like blizz suggested earlier, the pattern looks ripe for the pickings. Doesnt mean we score one, but the odds seem to be trending more favorable for us for the holidays and into the New Year. Best look IMO in some time. How long the window stays open....dunno, but it'll be open for a while.

6z is still a close miss, but at this lead time, we just want to storm to keep showing up, then we can start worrying about whos getting what (if anything). Looping through the panels, its a rather wonky/sloppy presentation, but no storm seems to come easy round here.

I think the moving on part was those of us that really werent in. Sorry if we stole any thunder from yalls fun. at least it wasnt a hard freeze after, or you'd be chippin away for days. Have fun.

Well stated Blizz.

it was nice to see both the Euro and GFS Ens similar in placement regarding next week. SHOULD boost confidence when so many iterations smoothed out show a similar solution.

lol the ensembles to the dissecting for us. I dare say most will take and ensemble mean 10 fold over an op post 7 days. Some of you wanted pros input...

alright blizz....if your power goes back out.....turn on the generator....you were slackin today and the night shift belongs to you buddy boy. Go find us some snow.

FYP

How bout all the above? In something like the HH GFS run wave spacing is close enough to almost work together (northern stream and southern streams phase). As I suggested earlier, the northern stream (NS) energy is diving in on the back side feeding the coastal storm cold air. The pattern depicted is not progressive (fast), and the SLP off the coast takes its good ol time coming up the coast and gives time for that NS energy to catch up and "dives in" on the back and bombs out off the coast. IF that would happen, thats called a capture/phase as one system feeds into the other (NS dives into SS (SLP off coast). The excitement is seeing all pieces of the puzzle getting close to working in concert w/ one another. I'll not go much deeper than that cause thats the pros job, but hopefully my info in weenie terms helps to understand the elevated excitement. Thats how I see it and if any disagree or have better disco to offer....share away. All that said, Eskimos right, its a long ways out, and there's a bunch of good and bad runs likely to follow...so keep expectations reasonable. It's also been a long time since something like this has shown up inside 240 hours, so a tad of excitement is totally warranted IMO. I'm keeping a casual eye on it, and wont dive this deep on every run...too far out.

sorry to hear that. Yeah that warm nose often tends to be a spoiler in systems w/ marginal column. Warm so often seems to win. Lets get some blue lines below Pa for a few days n see what next week cooks up precip wise.

getting closer to the 6" mark at Hyner Mtn area https://www.microseven.com/embed/xtVycBRQ8ww

If I didnt know any better, thats a triple phaser. Anyone else think so? You can see the NS diving in on the backside.

If you need spackle to fix any holes first..... just loop the run a few times