pasnownut

im at .04 so far, so yeah weve got some "ground to cover" rainwise

looks like we all get some, but emphasis is north

As per that statement earlier this week about first chance at flakes (second limb I went out on after first one cracked), still looking good for first flakage mid next week for normal lucky ones.

East wind for me. Up 1 degree in last hour at the big 50 12 08:53 E 3 9.00 Fair CLR 50 46 86% NA NA 30.24 1024.0 12 07:53 E 3 10.00 Fair CLR 43 41 49 42 93% NA NA 30.24 1024.1 but this will likely win out for the last warm day. Forecast is for 68. I'll say 71

West based Nao would be nice.

happy nooner run says first flakes still possible next week. No money moves from my stash....yet. If it happens or not, the time many of us love is getting closer. Enjoy for the next couple hours before the real happy hour runs muck it up.

at least my 75 is safe...... or already dead by some....

yeah thats a bit crazy, but you've suggested you hold the cold in winter so i'm guessing that's part of it as we cool off into autumn and your geography likely plays a factor in holding the cold (creek bottom correct?)

while that may be in winter, its early fall, and as the Nina is expected (and likely starting to rot away already - al la enso disco), I'd be cautious at just using general Nina climo and say x causes y (even though its influence is larger right now...its sounds like its likely to start fading fast. Enso is one in a myriad of factors to be considered when thinking longer term. If one loops back over the last several days of 500's on guidance, you'll note that its not really less defined, its just a different look to to the ridge/trough axis, which IMO is rather normal in seasons of transition as the fight of seasons is on, and that plays a large factor in forcing. Something for you to think about in the macro scale of things.

I saw 40 for our bottom, which was 2 deg. warmer than yesterday.

call me crazy but I like dreary autumn days when it rains and sends leaves in to clog up street drainage systems...... I dont like days n days of it though.

0z 6z

Looking like great autumn weather coming up through next week. Looking at mid next week, I'd step out on another limb and suggest somewhere in PA sees first flakes, as there is a notable frontal passage mid next week and enough instability to maybe touch something of the frozen variety off.

Great time in the northwoods this weekend. Nice early season colors showing up. Looking forward to more colors in coming weeks. Also looks like 76 late last week made my limb crack.... That said, it really does look like a cool period coming up. Frosty pumpkins for many. (spotty frost and 38 at my house this am)

Here's what the maps are currently showing for warmest panels. If you look at the mid and upper levels, they look supportive of 2m temps as ridging is brief and with other variables considered, me thinks 70's may be tough (but of course we may flirt w/ it as you dont have to head too far south to get to numbers that will make me bust.

used a blend of op and ens guidance, and I dont see any 70s. yeah upper 60's but once beyond the mid week warmth, it cools nicely. Point i was making is that normalish kinda fall weather and no anomalous warmth looks to be looming anytime soon. Normal is just fine w/ me.

saturated ground will surely temper some of the warmth. Its been quite cool of late and soil temps likely responded.

Just looking at the 500 maps and ens guidance and I'm going to pull a Bastardi or Weatherworld long ranger and say that we dont see temps above 75 until next spring. Tomorrow may tickle that number and the 13th has a bulge in the midwest that if rolled over a bit further east could be a spoiler to my guess as well, but I'm sticking w/ it as there is enough ridging out west and enough push of cold from the land of the canooks to make me feel safe for now.

wow. thats nuts. NOTHING like that round here....Hope the carnage isnt too bad on your casa.

huhh..was breezy down here in lanco but not too bad.

Loving this "early" fall weather. Early winter looks are not horrid, and we should have some shots at fun. Hoping for good times ahead "weatherwise".

Meso's say were about to be moist. Nam looks juicy. Still not in ideal range, but early week suppression thoughts are starting to diminish. forumwide soaker Wish I planted grass, but id only be feeding the grubs....I'll get those bastards next year.

happy belated. edit, i just caught up on thread and saw you recieved a nicely giftwrapped version of the same gift. 2's better than 1....i guess.

Beers cheaper and much more readily available....and you have instant replay. just trying to turn the -'s into a +'s for you.....

18z ready your post. HP ticks north and precip shield responds accordingly. Saturday in play for some moisture (for all you sport attending fans). I hope to sit in a tree Sat PM so I'm keepin an eye on it as well.