Its undeniably true. Just remember that even modified temps can yield the results most of us want. Not sure who called for a hard freeze. I just looked back thru saturday and didnt see it. But maybe I'm dizzy from my last fall. NBD ( I was 20 feet up a tree last weekend tho )
While only a limited view, and one of the models known to run warmer than depicted, here is last few runs for GFS in 24 hr increments. I picked 18z for "warmest" temps. Even if they warm by a few degrees, this still likely gets it done for favored locals (with latest timestamp trending colder). All things aside, you have a better chance of winning when betting on the hot hand, but there's enough continuity for this one to have legs, and its well into the mid range, so iI guess we'll see. I dont care if I end up being right....not why I'm here...but I do care about snow, and for some, this isnt trending away.....yet.