pasnownut

agreed. its friggn 2/11/26 and peeps sorta seem checked out. If its because they've had and enjoyed this winter so far....that's just great, but climo says 5 more weeks minimum (oh and that furry brown varmint). Spring is comin soon, but enough signals suggest early is not likely.

and wiping egg off their face. They largely bailed yesterday morning, and dipped toe back in da water overnight, but covered all bases.

CMC has been sniffin this one out from early on. How many times have we seen the models lose the storm in the mid range, only to bring it back/north as we get closer to the event. I was LOL'n yesterday with some of the its done/over stuff. This weekends potential event is a perfect example of many storms of the past. Going to be interesting to see CTP updates after overnighters-assuming the norther trends continue.

was thinking the same. Like yours, mine is rather solid and we'll see how it holds, but its gonna take a good bit of work.

Hi all. Hope you had a good weekend. Next weekend looks tricky, but I remind some that only a few days ago this week looked warm, and we're now down to a 1ish day "warmup". Nooner CMC is what dreams are made of. Verbatim its a best case scenario, and not sure I believe, but really nice to look at. Antecedent cold is there but as NAO is on the rise, so will be the thermal boundary, so the souther secondary is the way to the white promise land, as critical layers recover and we lose less cold. At least we are pulling off another solid week of winter.

Overnighters look to have flattened the flow, which makes more sense to me. While nao and ao are on the rise,both still in - territory next week. Add to it - pna, a flatter look seems reasonable. Beyond that...dunno, but next week still doesnt look bigly warm to me. Every week we add to this awesome stretch is fine by me. Spring will be springin soon enough and it'll make the warmth feel gooder. Headed north in a few hours. Have a great weekend all. Bundle up and enjoy the snow.

Fixed

upon review of nooners, its wide open for what will happen next week. I think the relaxation will give us our first cutter and then force boundary further south for VD event. Not sure it works out for the weekend event, but several camps being formed. Ens guidance does lean warmish d7+ so there's that

par for the clipper course down here in LSV. We've seen things look good from afar (timewise) only to have things diminish as we get into short range. Not surprised at all. And one should keep this in mind as we move into a more volatile period w/ NS/SS battling is out and we loose the heavy hand of cold. Might be a bumpy ride.

I'll add that after review of the overnighters, the concensus is that storm 1 looks icy/wet, and there is no consensus for next weekend VD event. Couple snowyish solutions and couple warm ones. Op/ens guidance have notable differences at 500. Need to iron that out till we can get an idea of what n where this goes.

lol. i just posted a response to Blizz about the same thing. Looks like pattern to get active next week, with warm and not white for first event. Hopng that one sets the table for Blizz's VD weekend event. Hoping y'all get snowed in w/ your loved ones.

since temp talk has been a topic of late, I paid a little extra attention to digi thermo on ride to work today. 27ish mile trip. Lowest number 1....highest...13 (730 am). Thats the variability that many of us know exists when peeps give their backyard readings. looks like etown went from 3.9 to 15 in 2 hours. 05 08:56 NW 9 9.00 A Few Clouds FEW250 15.1 7 70% 4 30.16 1022.0 05 07:56 Calm 9.00 A Few Clouds FEW250 7 5 91% 30.16 1022.0 05 06:56 Calm 9.00 Fair CLR 3.9 3.9 18 3 100% 30.16 1022.0

Im headed to the cabin snowmobiling tonight. Guess I dont have to worry about trail conditions deteriorating....lol Sounds BRIISSSKKKK

got an ace/agway up in your area? might help. If you like ephrata, Paul B Zimmermans will have what you need. You'll pay a tad more, but worth it IMO. Happy shovel hunting.

You wont be dissapointed. Just used mine to do what you are looking to. works like a charm.

respectfully... because I've been questioned by you, (others?) over my accuracy - so yeah I guess that rubbed me a bit many moons ago. That said, as you seem to be runnin hot temp wise (pun intended) from what I've shared from NWS, I'm merely suggesting that you might want to take a look at your setup. Not an argument, not a problem, just a suggestion. Isnt it fair to say as a bunch of weather hobbyists, much of our info (and I mean every one of us) shared here sometimes should/could be taken w/ a grain of salt. Just here for the fun. Done w/ this. Back to the weather, sunny and a beautiful and warmish 30 here in Etown.

anyone look at the nooners? ICON says what warmup GFS says VA snow capital gets stats padded next week. If thats our warmup, sign me up please n thx. (and not for a minute am I pushin any chips twds either), but share because some of us have suggested that there are no overwhelming signals for warmth or cold taking hold yet. Might just be a case of atmospheric memory theory that has been discussed in years past.

I bet voyager can hook you up w/ a coal shovel. absolutely the best for what you want to do.

And in truth, that proves the point that some are making. There is often a couple degree variance based on a medley of variables, and some can run cold, or hot. Really not a big deal to me, but something that has to be considered for those who really get into the stat stuff.

You might wanna check that station pal. Harrisburg, Harrisburg International Airport (KMDT) Lat: 40.19°NLon: 76.76°WElev: 312ft. A Few Clouds 28°F -2°C Humidity 53% Wind Speed N 12 mph Barometer 30.25 in (1025.0 mb) Dewpoint 13°F (-11°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Wind Chill 18°F (-8°C) Last update 4 Feb 8:56 am EST More Information: Local Forecast OfficeMore Local Wx3 Day HistoryHourly Weather Forecast Extended Forecast for Elizabethtown PA

Like Mt Joy suggested yesterday, it makes sense that some wunderground reporting stations might have skewed temps w/in their network of weatherweenies. Really doesnt matter much to me. I was glad to see my car temp was matching NWS, so I'll consider my rather mobile reporting station calibrated....lol

and the bottom line is that until next tue/wed, we are in less deep, but still deep winter. What a fantastic stretch this has been. My wood supply is getting hammered tho. Gonna be a busy spring replenishing supply. All good, love the exercise and playin w/ my chainsaws.

6z GFS started the day w/ screwdrivers for breakfast drink....cause man o man it was gettin after it...winter wise.

yeah I thought the same. My wife even agreed. 20's are the new 40's....lol

car digi verified exactly 32 at 1:58 pm at 283 interchange of etown. downtown lanco had 34-35, then to lititz and 33. Now back home and 33. pretty uniform. right in line w/ meso analysis as of 4pm. My kinda thaw....