pasnownut

Yep, I'm glad to see it came around. GFS/Icon look just fine. CMC a little less fine, but still as you state a great event. my worry is that we are still 72+ out and many outcomes gooder or badder are possible. Based on 700's you can easily see what the CMC was doing as it pops the primary and holds it too long. GFS doesnt show that. Icon also keeps a cleaner look w/ SLP well south.

the more dig on backside down in Texas early on is the culprit, and imo we need to root for that not to happen, and keep this a little more progressive for a clean event. Otherwise, taint word gets tossed in

togglin between majors, CMC trough axis notably more neutral tilt, and others more pos/progressive.

primary held onto 114 and screwed my pooch.

Verbatim CMC is a step back for southern PA, but central/northers highly approve.

and based on qpf, sleet on top....no bueno for power concerns shared by some earlier.

CMC solution is not what i expected. Still a great event, but not as clean. Sharper trough axis it shows is likely culprit. CAD is strong on ALL models, so I'd think if this would verify, itd be sleet below MD line Huhh

yep at 102 it pops, but I'd think a quick transfer incoming (if this solution makes any sense)

qpf field ticked north, and that was all i was looking for from the souther outlier. Nice runs with subtle (but good) moves so far. Starting to feel it.

30 hr event on GFS. Just beautiful

snowmaps out to 114 also show tick N with best accums.

at 114, its a Pa pummeling with more to come. Liking the look. May not be epic, but really really nice.

at 96 GFS may take the bait and go whole hog here. Man it looks nice

GFS at 90., qpf field a tick N

Next up GFS. at 84 a little less strung out.

was going to say the same. Classic CAD signature on it.

Icon at 84 slightly north of 6z

at 66, ICON rather Euroesqe

Next up - its the Germans to keep hope alive.

yep that was NAM's vs the rest if memory served. Coup scored.

Extrapolate please

@66 hrs, 12z NAM looks a lot like 6z Euro at surface

This is a very fair point. 72 + hours is still enough time for some wiggle in the modeling, especially as the players enter the field (conus) tomorrow night and models hone in on what n where things are, and where they are headed. Fortunately there's been enough continuity for last couple days that the goalposts are becoming a bit better defined, and should start to narrow. We currently are on the inside - center left post, and hopefully stay inside. IF we can survive today full set of runs (including tonights 0z's, I'd think we'll be alright. If we end up back in the 6+ and not 16" range, its still a win.

im sure it'll take a bit of time, but w/ the amount of moisture headed this way, i'd think not much qpf would be "wasted".

Its a rarety when we get to look at Kuch and actually believe the numbers may be a close reflection of OTG totals.