pasnownut

were i drinking when I read this, my monitor woulda been powerwashed... nicely done.

shorts tent... that was easy and we've all had em.

or just smaller than current bloated one????

Somethin I'm nervous we wont get. Further souther solution. As you know were on the bottom side of baroclinic zone and as primary still heads for KPIT...then transfers off Va coast, we do our normal obligatory taint. Nooner GFS just ticked N and as is often the case, any jog N screws our pooch down here...and thats an ugly mix. No blocking HP up north, so its a matter of where the bar zone is that likely guides this one along. AO is trending - so root for a bit better cold press/antecedent and thats our path to a more frozen event. Quicker transfer gets us slotted, so IMO root for the souther route. Beyond that, GFS is moderately droolworthy for mid next week.

NAM is all frozen for us, and slightly colder presentation than today. I'll take it as it is,

Head to philly bro. Thats where the action is at..... poles and lamp posts be warned (and greased)

I'm just hoping for a more wintery look than what this one produced. Beats cold rain though. If we can eek out a bit of front end loving on Sat system it appears that we stay more frozen, so that could help us for next week if enough gets laid down. Fun times.

Yeah, the word "meh" is stuck in my noggin right now. Saturday looks a bit wintrier for us LSV'rs, and then we wait for Tuesday and hope for something appreciable.

I'm a sales guy....and I'm here Wasnt bad at all. Just normal slush in the occasional slick spot on back roads. Plows were down so were safe....lol

merely an indicator of what a pattern might look like based on +/-'s of each tellie. As i've said many times, in the infamous words of Joe B....when looking at model runs...does it fit the pattern? That phrase has stuck w/ me for decades, and It has worked rather well overall from my amateur view, so I'll stick w/ it until something better comes around. This years long lead calls, have been riddled w/ busts, and while I'm not judging whatsoever, we all have "our" bag of toys that we like pull from when makin guesses. Thats all. I'm checkin out for the afternoon, so go reel in the Euro in a bit and hook us a doozy

Yeah, but i'd rename it the "firehose" as we never really know what to expect. Regarless, nice to see so many chances. Somethings gotta get us. I know your not a big fan, but tellies are really better than "workable" for the extended. If we can pull off a decent Feb, I'd be fine w/ March comin in like a loin, and out like a lamb.

consensus says....toss GFS, or compromise, and we get a good ol shellacking. pants tent starting to take shape.

SLP/qpf didnt tick N, it triple jumped. Not gonna say toss it, but just add to the pile of solutions possible. Was notably further S in last 2 runs, so theres that.

I'll add that there are notable SLP "adjustments" ongoing opp #4 for mid next week, so reminding all weenies to keep it in your pants, and just make tents for now.

nooner GFS is about to go whole hog at 174. Verbatim that has crowd pleaser written all over it.

lookin over overnighters, the parade of storms is about to commence. Really excited to see how this all shakes out. Gonna be fun. If I could lock in the Euro, man o man, what a presentation that'd be

verbaitm, exciting times nontheless. We may not always be on the right side, but it's gonna b fun watchin.

that .15 of zr would really pack r in tight. Holy shnikeys...

I'm not bothered by the GFS for next week, and I'm gonna say it.... right where we want it....for now. Arctic boundary shifted notably south.

Sounds like we look at the same thing in situ's like this, and why I look at "snow" maps, for that very reason, even if I've no idea what rendition of frozen is falling. When they eek south, or hold, that's the sign us frozen lovers look for, and that CAD is doin its thingy...or not.

antecedent cold and how long it can hold w/ this CAD scenario makes me think things might just come in a smidge colder, and we all know in close situ's like this 1-2 deg's is a big difference. if one toggles through the 700/850's youll note that there is much more of a west (700's) and west to s/w at 850's component and no strong southerly fetch. Thats what i'm hangin my hat on anyways. Its gonna be a close one for us, but up in the Skook and points NE, I'd think they stay largely frozen at surface, even if its oh so shallow. the warmup is rather brief as well, and that 50's stuff looks largely gone for the easter folks. we may need some 40's to crack the ice a bit.

If 1/2 of that verifies, and you add some Zr to the mix....that might be a problem. Glad I brought some more wood down last night.

Ice Ice Baby all i've got to add to the disco....(see what i did there)?

Yeah busted over here as well. I saw 45 on digi car thermo at 330. Forecast was for low 50’s. Cad baby.

Looks pretty shallow to me. I’d wager zr with some pingers if qpf is stoudt enough. I’d like that freezing a little closer to the 700s for a pingerfest. Regardless looking icy for a bit.