pasnownut

Jon, I expect beer in snow pics from you. Just no naked snow angels........K

27 in Akron. Looks like overnights ticked colder....and thats a pleasant surprise (to me). Congrats to many now in the game. Still worried about the SSW wind doing a quick scouring of our precious cold, but if we get the rates...it may offset that even down here (for a while anyway). NWS has r/s mix for me this afternoon and early evening. If we see a little white rain....it's a win for me. For you norther/westers, enjoy and share some pics.

Looking at overnighters seems like a tick south w/ 850's and has you guys looking good. Based on winds, it looks like a changeover is likely for many but not after a nice kickoff to snow season. Nice trend. Enjoy.

looked more like 12z GFS regarding SLP. That helped thermal boundary with a tad less warm air intrusion for lower part of state NW looks good. still stickin w/ my gut for 80 southers having trouble for much in the way of accums.

throwing my congrats out in advance. Enjoy and send pics.

One potential bust is that nooners at 36 hrs...GFS and NAM are 4mb off and 100 miles w/ SLP placement and 700 wind fields and thermal are notably different. NAM is warmer of the 2 (hoists flag). I think one of them is gettin first taste of crow if they dont come to a consensus quickly

Thermals a tad better for some and a tad worse for others. Probably noise, but a slightly weaker SLP w/ less precip (a la 12z) will not help turn wet to white for some.

Seeing that map and knowing philly doubled KLNS makes me cringe. Hoping this year isnt as horrid round our area....but we'll see. Not looking like a big winter but anything close to normal is a win IMO.

Last point I'm trying to make for us 80 southers, is that based on wind direction, we've got mid 30's right on M/D line, and IF this happens, its dynamic cooling is the only way to get some to the promise land...so hope for heavy precip and roll em....verbatim laurels should be fine.

agreed. I'm just trying to temper expectations on this early opportunity. NAM can be a bit overdone and while i want it as much as the next guy, like you, I think the + takeaway is that opps are starting to show and an earlyish start may be evolving. Heres the 700's that dont help the column for us 80 southers (if one looks at wind direction). If it mixes down an dynamic cooling occurs, then maybeso. Lets hope for last minute changes, as it wont take much to see CTP's map have alot more merit than my take.

Here's your "money" panel.....spend it wisely. 700/850"s for same timestamp. SSW winds at surface heres 850's w/ 700's showin same wind. Not gonna do it for I80 southers. (again, except laurels/elevation lucky ones). Hope I'm wrong.

30"...no thanks. Drop the 0 and were happy thank you. we got 8" 2 a couple years back, heavy wet, and my gosh it was so so tiring to get around. Many moons ago we tried to get around in 24" in Tioga, and it was impossible and NOONE was out. Plus we need deer to putting lbs on for overwinter health, and an early start like that post mating season, is really really hard on them. Dont want that.

I hope it works out, but looking at thermals on GFS....marginal 850's in southern 1/2 of state w/ SSW winds makes me a bit nervous for many south of 80 (save Laurels). Hey, its great to see no matter. Getting closer for sure. BTW, dont look at the 6z for post turk day....hint....hope you have boat , but that's post 240 so I wouldnt lose much sleep. Your 30" may be back at noon

its steady to pouring here in Akron/Ephrata. No hint of sun in this neck of the farm fields. and yes.....rather warm

Yep. Upper levels while close, are just too far west. SLP moving about 300-400 miles NW in 6hrs might be a teenie weenie red flag too. Not been a big fan of the look, but beyond that we get the 500's in much better position for LF/ upslope areas to have a little pre holiday mood adjuster.

As PA and Blizz have already suggested, next week is starting to look a bit wintery for some in the region with a couple shots of love from above. Following tomorrow nights potential elevation frostings, the Tues/Wed looks decent for more flakes in same areas and possibly Poc area. Beyond that NW flow likely keeps flakes flying in flurry and snow showers for upslope crew for Thurs/Friday. Still plenty of time to change, but first stand of winter appears to be showing up. 540 oscillates below and through the region much of the week. Not a great look but a nice change IMO.

a day later and still looks like N/W'ers may see some white tomorrow night. NWS now saying R/S tomorrow night for cabin (Gaines) area.

was barely drizzle on way into work. Radar looks to fix that shortly.

I'd use US loosely. Were not in this one buddy, but Atomix/Mag/Paweather areas may be sharing the love in pic form. Like you, I'm just happy to see our N/W pals gettin some early love from above. Money panel says... aint a snowballs chance down here and as trainerboy often suggests....GFS thermal profiles are often a tad overdone w/ cold. Just somethin to ponder while we wonder.

mountains gonna do there thing and keep western crew in the jackspot. They can use it too. Just like the ladies say....we'll take our 1" and like it.

Looking forward to a rainy friday/sat morn. Somethin for the norther/westers to keep an eye out for is the trailing wave for sat/night and sunday. Might be the normal lucky ones getting a splattering of mashed taters on windshields/grassy spots. Some support being shown by other globals, so keep an eye out all you lucky ones.

Yeah, saw the change to a colder regime started to show late last week on ens guidance, as ridging looks to be replace w/ troughiness here in the east. This has been showing up with enough consistency, that I'm starting to get a bit more excited. It's been a beaut of a fall weather period though, even if a bit toasty.

its about 1 Rt#(23), and 3-5 traffic lights busier than Maytown.... edit....i forgot the

thats about 3-5 miles from my house. If its a dry wedding...sneak over and I'll have some cold ones ready..

yeah the warmth has been pretty stoudt. 70 when leaving cabin yesterday was a bit much. Looked like winter. Felt nothing like it. We've seen this show before, so while unwanted (to me) its not that uncommon. Hoping the cold showing on Ens guidance grows legs and sticks around in the east.