pasnownut

shall we stop talking about the weather till you like what you see........ crickets..... and wierd stuff and more crickets. punts ball not sure anyones hangin onto anything post 10 day,but for those of us that take the time to share/offer up thoughts w/ info and reasoning...I'm just a tad confused at how this is wrong on a weather board? You wanna chime in and chirp about what you see (scared to ask sorta....) thats just fine. Were all ears. Otherwise......stay on sidelines n keep bitchin at the ref for the bad calls....thats always easier and more fun.

If the GEPS/GEFS have a clue, it looks like we are (and as always) 10-11 days away from better times. Only reason I post is that the changes are appreciable on the PAC side, as ridging is popping and much better placed for downstream corrections here in the east. Looking at other indicies this may work out a bit better than what weve seen....Just hoping that it has some staying power. MJO looks to traverse 1 and head strongly into 2 and I'm hoping that influence is notable enough to help. Only concern is that its headed for 3 which is not a good look for us, but thats to far out for me to fret over, and can adjust as we get down the road a bit (for better or for worse). I'll just take a favorable window and hit n hope for now. and if not, were always 10 days away from a better looking pattern

Yeah you can add that to the mix. Early ideas that it would fade and we'd be Enso Neut by mid winter are not working out. Last look we are at -.9 and it is waning, so that should help for the back 1/2 of winter. I'll also add that as we barely broke low end mod Nina, that it really wasnt an overwhelmingly strong signal that could be overcome by other forcing mechanisms. Add in a warming base state, and maybe it has more legs than I gave it credit for. I will add that while some merely look at Enso, and place their bets accordingly, history also shows us that while the odds may be tilted in favor, that their are quite a few instances that have proven that methodology to be incorrect.

This has been 1000% my feelings of the last couple years. When things used to look good, there was more confidence that the pattern would often show up, and it seems of late, that when the same indicators show, we struggle to get anything close to what we think should happen. This has absolutely been my biggest frustration of late. I used to be able to tell friends/clients/family when good periods were forthecoming and so much that some would book trips weeks out based on what I suggested. I wouldnt be able to do that with much/any confidence right now. Something has changed. Is it the warming climate that isnt factored into analogs as we use mid/long range guidance....dunno, but thats what I'm guessing.

only "bright" spot, is that we've had cold (always after storms....but it at least feels somewhat like winter. Just trying to not be a total debby right now. Hoping we get the looks being advertised later this month. It can quickly erase the ugly start to snow season.

My yard has yet to be whitened this "winter".

One of these days a 240+ ens run is going to happen....I just know it. That said, the pattern looks great beyond 240....like it usually does. Nice PNA ridge, and central canada looking cold w/ troughing in east. Someday.

This would be the way that it would have to evolve to work though, and verbatim, Im not sure how much better we can get in a progressive flow like this. JMO's tho.

Yeah I'm seeing that. IF trough axis holds, it COULD lead to a little better look, but were gonna need to see this for a few more runs, before getting giddy....cause right now, most are gunshy.

Euro gets eastern 1/3 of pa gets into some fun. Not much but better than going the other way, which we seem to accel at. That said, Euro/CMC and GFS have something to watch.

oh and i'm just having fun...cause I've actually checked out a bit weather wise, but as always...keep an eye out for something to root for.

at 102 Euro trough more neg tilted....might it spin up something.... dough....at 108, there it is.....

also from 168 thru 216 GFS has a retrograding SLP heading our way from Bermuda. 500 map is one wonky looking deal, but that is one big storm as 500's show 6 countour closed slp. Maybe thats our regime changer....Had to look at the dates a couple times to make sure I wasnt day drunk. Nothing else seems to be working...so....why not?

LOL. Go look at the 12z CMC. It's going "coastal" on us. I dont go there but once in a blue moon, but I'm sure the MA forum is in "pants tent" mode. Pops a secondary and crawls up the coast. GFS hints at the same w/ secondary pop, but maintains a more progressive look and scoots up and out. Interesting...we've got nothing better to look at (other than those that got their 1" today).

Not sure I'll be staying up to watch/witness the flakes. Meso's look paltry at best.

Its like a hangover that you just cant get rid of. Only thing I'd say is that we are only in low end mod, and likely aoa peak, so it wasnt unreasonable to think that things could have broke slightly/notably better for what we've seen so far this winter. We really did have a couple of ok/decent periods, but they just didnt break in our favor. To the flip side, and at some point, you cant keep calling it bad luck, and have to rethink your thinking...right?

Thanks for the insight. I didnt look at 500's, just surface panels, and from what I was seeing up until what you shared above, the 500's had a slight ridge/trough look to them, so I was going off those prior looks. Yeah this surely shows it closed off, and would arguably pull the trough down as you suggest. Your point about lack of cold is surely evident on surface panels. IF this look continues, I'd hope column can cool enough to get it done for some/most in our group.

Snow has returned to the north woods. IF any need to scratch their snow itch....the businesses would love your company right now. http://www.swedenhillsnocam.com/

Looking at the ENS guidance wasnt a great look as we get beyond next weekend, so keep that in mind as the word transient came to mind when looking over them. Thats way too far out to worry about for now tho. Just keep in back of your mind when setting expectations.

CMC for next weekend shows and I80 special. I'd sign as I'll be at the cabin playin in it. LONG ways to go, but like the direction we are headed in with chances starting to show up....even if they dont quite pan out for all of us

sure would and sure are. that was one wonky run IMO. Verbatim I'd still sign, as its time for some/any snow we can get.

deal for next weekend definitely looks like one to watch. Not sure im buying the nooner gfs solution offered, as it shows a retrograde to stall (IMO pattern doesnt support that as we'd need much more blocking, and pattern seems to look more progressive. That said, it surely looks like some potential in the new pattern that is forthcoming

starting off w/ a bang for sure.

I'm sure if you do a deep dive, you'll find negative connotations/comments regarding what it is and what it should be. Call it what you want. It no biggie to me, but not my jam. Bing a realist (as many probably are in order to do this hobby for any length of time), is what many likely are, but I'm just not one to "pile it on" however it is stated. Stating what it is....just fine..never said it was a problem. Not seen too many posting about heavy snow and bitter cold in the last few years, but some have found their way to decent snows, despite what the board isnt seeing or sharing....I had snowmobilers playing around at the cabin thru last thurs evening, but most here dont care, so I dont share. Friends said conditions north of 80 were ranging from good to 10 outta 10 from Christmas thru thursday, so there was snow around....just not in our yards...where it counts most. Gotta run, someone find us some snow...... please.

I truely respect MU, but some of us can see when thing are looking more favorable, and don't need to be told when ...whether it happens or not. Thats all I'm getting at. Like you, I/others can also see the -'s just as much as the +'s in ANY pattern and most here know that 70% of the time things dont work out. We've done this for far too long to deny that, and know that betting on the fail is always the safer bet. Check my post history and you'll see ive said that numerous times over the years, but that said, if we would wait for only slam dunk patterns, this board would have died a long time ago. Thats just not realistic of late, and not how we typically win. More often than not, hybrid/bootlegin snows seem to be our way to get snow...even if not ideal or how we'd like it, so some of us try to find the needle in the haystack and enjoy searchin for it and share w/ others. Many of us are more balanced than we get credit for, but when things start to look better, I've no fear in suggesting that....whether it happens or not. Theres always plenty of doom n gloom being shared, so I've no interest in adding to it....even when its warranted (like it was this past week). I just take my mental break and casually look/wait for the next window to open. I hope you get my points and am sharing because it seems that camps like to form in a discussion forum, that really should be an open discussion forum of what can and cant happen in any given event/period. Noone should ever be dismissed for sharing thoughts (right or wrong) as thats the purpose of the board...NO?? Many with much more knowledge get it just as wrong sometimes....although probably with a little less frequency.