pasnownut

If we've got nothing else....there's always hope. While its pretty far out there to really ponder, the base state is notably colder and any warm punch would potentially be muted and this could be more of an overrunning kinda thingy that gets it white just in time for Santa. Yes, it'll likely change a bunch, but the pattern change is happening, so something to consider when thinking of any last minute requests for stocking stuffers.

Yeah, no matter what map shows what, we know the drill down here. Hoping for surprise reports N and W of us (more N IMO). Funny as I was thinking Liberty exit of rt 15 to Worlds End when I suggested Lyco to Sullivan. Liberty is 1 mile over the Tioga border, and a plateau that we always see wintery weather when there is some to be had en route to the cabin.

I just looked at it vs the Euro, and they are similar...and not crowd pleasers. So the rug is still under foot and wating for the big tug.....whos gonna pull it?

Sorry for the challenging year. Doing as best we can here. Yeah that's a little soon for batteries to go, but congrats on the new toys. Hoping you get it resolved soon. Send pics if you go. All the best to you and yours.

IF this verifies, that'd put alot of the NWS forecasts into a spot of difficulty.

Hey Kirby, hope all is well. Yeah we still need to get them ready. Got the Harleys outta the garage last evening, so they are next to prep. You still riding?

I've got no snow problems. Been here all my life, and while Wellsboro is an amazingly charming town, I enjoy visiting the area more than I would if I lived there. I'm just having fun as usual. No sour grapes here. Much more important things to fret about.

I was thinking Lycoming to Sullivan counties as per snow maps, and would think Poconos may do better w/ coastal (at elevation mind you).

Wow, thats quite a disparity. I think NAM counts sleet (or maybe not, but thats surely an eye opener (goes for more coffee).

I'll take your .2 to get on the damn board....

For those that are going to cash in, by the looks of the pattern, y'all stand a decent chance at holding it till christmas. I just need to figure out how to hold onto my 1" of slop that I'm anticipating.

@Voyager URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 417 AM EST Wed Dec 14 2022 PAZ028-051>053-058-150000- /O.EXA.KCTP.WS.A.0007.221215T0600Z-221216T1200Z/ Juniata-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill- Including the cities of Mifflintown, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, and Pottsville 417 AM EST Wed Dec 14 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 3 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Juniata, Montour, Northumberland, Columbia and Schuylkill Counties. * WHEN...From late tonight through Friday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will likely impact the morning and evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wintry mix will begin around sunrise and increase in intensity into Thursday afternoon.

Accumulation of what?? Go get some sleepy..... I'd appreciate your likely 3-5 of snow/sleet/slop all day and every day compared to being lucky to get the ground white down here.

not sure if you missed anything, but looks reasonable. You should step in for one of the TV stations....

Miller Hi Life….the champagne of beers is a real crowd pleaser here (well ok….for 2 of us anyways).

Of course you are welcome. We are NOT like some other forums that get all wound up from "outsiders". Hell....we got some guy from friggin Arizona that posts here all the time @Voyager Enjoy your stay and fwiw were not always in the game either, but we are known to chat it up even when some of us are on the bench.

that was hilarious. Good one.

regardless of the end result, I'll take the step the GFS took as a nice move for some LSV'rs. Remember folks, you gotta get the thermals figured out, before looking at perty colored snow maps....especially in situ's like this. Often times surface maps can be lagging IMO, so keep that block of salt on standby when viewing. In marginal events like this (cold wise), thats why I post 700/850 for your viewing pleasure/pain...cause it all starts up top. And for those that know this....sorry to bother, but for those that don't hope it helps.

GFS a wee bit better early on..... oh the drama.... secondary SLP at 60hrs about 75-100 SSE. 66hrs looks better too for us fence sitters, a little bit may mean something.

and best news of the day (to me) is that after looking at the tellies, NAO - slighly - AO - solidly - PNA - FINALLY GOING ++ MJO low amplitude 1/2/3 for next 2 weeks. Not really sure what/how that plays into the other signals, but IMO 3/4 aint bad. forthcoming maps should continue to show much nicer looks as we head for and beyond the holidays, so if your stocking doesnt get filled w/ snow with this one....I'd wager Sauss's $$ that many/all stocking just may have snow in them by EOY.

and after the 12z NAM thermal profile review...a nice tick colder. IMO coastal is helping a bit. If you look at 700mb panels you can see it. 850's also a tad better. I'll take it as a good start for the day. edit: and after reviewing comments above, looks like I'm late to the dance....

and after looking at the 6z NAM thermals, the 700's where a tad warmer for SE Pa, still a good bit of work for us down here, but soon enough, these subtle shifts will become noise, as the goalposts will stop narrowing and I'll likely be outside of them. For those inside...enjoy.

Yeah its a nail biter for us, but often is in situ's like this. You and I will be living vicariously through our central/northern crew, but like you suggested, if we can eek out even 1-3 slop kinda deal, I'm good w/ that.

didnt look too deep but at a quick glance, I'd say ever so slightly cooler. You look to be in for a decent event, I need every little skinch of "cooler" that I can get down here. Reading Afd above give me hope they the quicker transfer to the coastal may save the day for the eastern folks, and while the coastal transfer is a little too far N for me to get real excited down here, I'll take my normal dryslot and hope for the quicker transfer and cross my fingers for some action from part 2.

I had a little time to play on pivotal and the Ukie actually improved at 12 and isnt too far from decent for us LSV'rs, Just trying to get a feel for what the current model "spray" is...and I'd say the goalposts are not too wide for this lead time.