pasnownut

Window should be closed a bit IMO.

Hey Nannook, I will throw $20 in if you send pics of you swimming (must be chest deep and in water for 3 min.....:)

But....as its friday and noones gonna rain on my parade tellies have gone from dumpster fire to slightly less horrible as we get beyond next week. Still not a good look, but hoping next weeks progression gets MJO through warm phases, and AO now showing a drop into week 2. NAO still meh but lets see IF this can morph into a better look in the final 1/3 of Waiting for Winter 23'.

I hope you can find the diamond in the rough, but boy it looks pretty rough pal. As suggested a couple days ago and mag just restated, this one needs good precip to overcome marginal (at best) thermal issues. IF we stay on northern fringe, I'm just not getting the warm fuzzies about snow down here. Like mag said, elevations west and sw of us should be excited, but us lsv'rs notsomuch.

This is what the LR looks like to me, so why not.

As Bubbles suggested above...whoda ever thunk in early feb we'd be worried about temps w/ an slp progged in a rather favorable placement (as per 6z's)? Cant say I'd ever have thought it, but without rates, we may be in trouble, so hope for a flush hit, and not fringe stuff. 540's way above us, so we gotta get into the goods to overcome marginal temps. Ops start to gain traction for 4.5 day lead time, so model watch accordingly. Below graphic tells the tale. LR guidance just doesnt show much of anything favorable.....not 1 of them (well the MJO is progged to "race" thru less than ideal phases, that'll take 2 weeks). But, with AO/NAO well into ++ territory, not sure there's much to hope for. EPO? Dunno, but I'm just not seein much. Somebody help me find somethin, cause I'm all but checked out for this "winter"-snow wise.

I edited a bit cause #2 wasnt quite as bad as it looked early on, but for eastern 1/3 of pa, we are all rain, so for me it doesnt really matter. Norther westers may be ok w/ it (verbatim).

Euro says just what i stated yesterday....congrats Chicago (and not in a congratulatory way as its mostly rain). And after that dumpster fire, dont worry, there's another dumpster fire getting ready to cut way friggin west at a hunch as model run was still ongoing, but you can see the ridging popping behind the pooper that is slated for next friday. edit.....#2 (saturday/sunday)starts south but is likely going to cause issues, so put your hopes in that basket. In summary...we get shafted 2x

Lol. Looks like the GFS it hittin the sauce a tad early today. And while I/we wanna believe....toggle back the last 4 runs and you'll see why I'm a tad nervous to push chips in (although the weenie in me is all in). I'd take my 3" and like it.....

that control run sure looks pretty on screen. Just need it to look perty out window.

I stir shit up and the weather gods respond accordingly... Dont worry, those 2 diggy snows will be in chicago for nooners.

to further the turd talk.... if it looks like it.... and smells like it.......

I personally have cancelled nothing, but for the forseeable future its lower odds than we've been dealing with, and that's just being a realist...not a debby (which was used in humor).

once again I find myself thinking of a previously used polishing turd analogy when looking at our "winter" future. Yall know thats not how I roll, and I'm usually looking for the way to find snow, but odds look rather low for a flush hit of something appreciable (and not a sneaky cartopper like I barely had this morning). I want to be wrong in the worst way, and I'll bud in line on the Blizz train if we can find something. Till then....just going to take a chill pill n roll w/ it. I've got a trip to Maine w/ 23 other guys hanging out there in a couple weeks, but am fearful that too may be in trouble if Ens guidance has a clue to the misty distant future (Gadomski ism)

so did the look of the nooner LR Ens guidance and the short terms/ops didnt pick up on southern pa until almost inside 24 hours Tellies look troubling other than that.....were good yours truly, Debbie

For me i think its more the winters over part. My dog passed, so I dont worry about mud like I used to. Only thing worse than a bad winter is a late spring and cold that shoulda been here 2 months earlier than late march/april. Like you...if snow aint stickin....I'll take it but its more of a bittersweet pill to swallow to me.

even though it's felt like winter often...if its not gonna snow...add me to the dung heap if Feb is gonna be more see saw and no snow. I hate spring so lets get it over with so I can hop on the hog. MORCH on...

I guess since were looking for ++'s in this "winter" at least we've not had a shut the shade blow torch...no matter what the temp departures show. When its cold, its moderately cool, and when its warm....its just plain warm. Despite the lack of white, I'm still sorta ok w/ the reality that it's felt like winter frequently. Just doesnt look the part.

So I'm just gonna throw out that some Ens guidance surely doesnt look like the "end of winter". Snowloversdelight.....hardly....but this looks like winter to me (and I was rather surprised to see this start showing up yesterday). "See saw" temp swings looks appropriate to me. I should be trolled for throwing a post 240 hr map out for disco, so I'll not post further beyond (which looks to warm) as thats way too far out to fret over. heres the opposing view. Not sure how it ends up but as always stated 7 outta 10 times betting warm wins.

he rounded 9.98 up to 10. Pure sensationalism..... This winter sux

I'm just a lucky guy....what can i say. Was gonna take a pic, but it wasnt pic worthy to see white roofs. Meh. I posted obs above from my hood for any that think I'm further off my rocker than previously thought.

underperformer....... shocked arent ya? BUT........it did snow. My wife said "look at the roofs - it snowed". My response was underwhelming. also traffax was stating Adamstown and east was "slick" w/ numerous accidents into berks edit - 17501 01 07:53 N 7 10.00 Fair CLR 28 16 60% 21 NA 30.27 1025.3 01 06:53 N 8 10.00 Fair CLR 30 16 33 30 56% 22 NA 30.24 1024.3 01 05:53 NW 8 10.00 Overcast OVC100 32 19 59% 25 NA 30.22 1023.6 01 04:53 NW 8 10.00 Overcast OVC090 33 23 66% 26 NA 30.20 1023.1 01 03:53 NW 5 3.00 Light Snow Fog/Mist SCT048 SCT065 OVC080 33 29 85% 28 NA 30.18 1022.2 01 02:53 W 5 9.00 Overcast OVC047 33 28 82% 28 NA 30.19 1022.6 01 01:53 Calm 10.00 Overcast OVC041 33 28 82% NA NA 30.18 1022.4 01 00:53 Calm 10.00 Overcast OVC043 33 28 35 33 82% NA NA 30.18 1022.4

I chuckle when CXY gets brought into the disco, cause we all know they run warm. Even when the mean truly is warm - it just skews the reality. Thank goodness most here know it.

car/roof topper in akron. Barely that in lititz/manheim.

yeah my sledding (or chasing snow to do it) is not what it used to be....TONS of miles in vehicles towing trailers n sleds to get some miles in. I spread my love of motorsports out to include a HD Street Glide and a Kawi Teryx UTV that get plenty more chances at being used. I wish it werent that way, but like you suggest, many of us are just not putting what we did into the sleds anymore. Tugs/upstate NY economy was hurting before the lean years as the taxes up there knocked the stuffing outta local economies and small towns. Throw some bad snow years onto lean times (oh and a pandemic)....and the pic is not so rosey.