pasnownut

This is a great point. Many moving parts to dissect with this setup. 18z at 120 shows SLP forming in Gulf. Wasnt there prior. I suggested earlier that it didnt make sense to see the heartland cutter (in my mind). I like that and think it may be a way to salvage this deal. Guess we'll find out how it plays out in a little bit

and as i look at nooner CMC out to 120 it has a much flatter look and lost the bigtime cutter look....so far. Likely still cuts but maybe a slight step in a better direction. Just a couple model runs, but rather dizzying IMO

Huge changes twds the Euro/CMC look Someone got a fork? We may need one soon. Not saying it can come back but model consensus has been trending the wrong way. Only possible savior could be where the models are forcing the SLP to pop back in Tennessee, and with all of that energy hitting the coast, you'd think the coastal pop would be more likely, but thats all i got for ya. Scratches head and goes back to chores.

Yeah, several models show quite the fropa.... yuk

I hope it doesnt follow the Icon, cause the Icon just went the wrong way.

Looking over the overnighter, CMC and Euro still hangin tough on their continuance to cutville. Keep that in mind as we set the table for another day of tracking. 2 distinct camps and one will likely fold like a cheap tent in the near future. Of course we all hope the home team models have a clue, but keep the emotions in check till the Euro or CMC caves....

I live in that strip. My bud about 5 miles to my east had about "a healthy dusting" and I was snowmobiling that evening. Felt like Tug Hill amish style

that was enough for me to sleep better. Hoping the ensembles support the Op. regardless...i'm out gnight gang.

answer is yes.... not likely how this would evolve, but we'll take the track for sure and sort out details later.

pops a second low off SC coast at 156. Hmm more to follow?

150 off chessy bay. Im tainting, but we do that in the big ones

slp in much better position off NC coast. Its drinking the good sauce now.

sweet jesus

Yeah....this may be a good lookin run

at 138 really liking the trough axix. much more 12z esqe

same deal at 126. Less ridging so it may lead to less cutting further east. Next 2 frames will likely tell the tale IMo

120 looks a bit better in midwest w/ slightly less ridging. Not sure the downstream implications tho

I just snuck into the MA forum and their chatter agrees....so you can believe it to be true. Been a while, still alot of same posters it seems. Lets hope GFS comes back around.

fwiw, ICON just made a huge jump towards the nooner GFS. BIG diff. Not a total win (nor should it be expected at this juncture, but a nice start for the overnighters

I suggested that yesterday and still feel the same today. Tellies/Ens runs continue to look good, but the GFS Op either drank some skunk beer for HH, or there will be alot of head scratching in the coming days.

I also dont think it caved. Looked rather similar through 130's as suggested in the PBP, but then it took a step towards the Euro's cutter solution beyond that, and the jump wasnt small either. I'm not sold on the CMC/Euro cut options, and yeah I've been riding the GFS a bit, as its been less jumpy until 18z. Thats all. Now it jumped a bit, so we keep on truckin and see what the next ones look like. I'm sure there were peeps down in the MA forum that also suggested it was a step twds the Euro's depiction. If one cant see that, they either arent paying attention, or dont know what they are looking at.

the miller b thing has been a weather staple for "us", and surely we can do well. The part I (and likely others) cant wrap my head around is why the new default for them so often seems to be the midwest, where they used to be ohio valley to a transfer off the VA coast ish kinda deal. Its been something we've all seen for the last few years, and something has altered the base state for this to be the new norm. Thats what I'm tryin to figure out. I've brought this very point up a couple of times over the last few years.

While we all get snow, and thats surely a plus that was a notable difference. And yes......still plenty of time as we look for continuity/trends/etc/blah blah blah. IMO we needed the GFS to hold the line in hopes of the CMC/Euro to come around. It went the other way and anyone that can read a model can see that. Indisputable

i dunno man. Def raises both eyebrows as it took a notable step in that direction. Still cant see why it can cut w/ NAO intact. Scratches head and moves on to 0z.

You expected this.....lol Yeah nice "call". Please share that call for it to tend to Euro We'll wait for it...................... No disrespect intended Trainer. He just brought you into our little stupid game