pasnownut

Oh and 27-29 degrees

My nooner obs from an hour ago. Top of 901 exit on 81 Will welcome any in search of a white Christmas. Centralia as well. Now in Bloomsburg and view from third floor of communications dept after my meeting shows the elevational aspect of frosty tops and bare bottoms.

Quite a resume any myriad of experience. Look forward to your sharing thoughts

Truth

yeah I'm a tad nervous about my daughters flight....If they time it right, they can get at elevation and just the engines off and glide over a few states. Ugh

I spent time in the Philly and MA threads years ago. I've seen how they roll (fair to say they have/had a couple issues.....no??) lol Many times sports/general chat is widely accepted, and weather "chatter" I'll call it cause a couple self anointed "content moderators" think its just that...gets frowned upon. Our forum is what it is...and everyone knows well enough what is banter/chatter/disco/wishcasting blah blah blah. This forum is not elite, and some need to stop thinking it otherwise. Come on in...share and make your own conclusions....or find a PRO board to take your elite status to (thats a general statement-and not pointed at you).

Some of us have him.... but some here really need saved tho, and in more ways than just Jesus.

No offense....I'll take the snow maps). They are a tad safer to share.

You may be waiting a while for your load of crust in shorts. You ruined nothing for me pal and I work out, eat and am out the door at 7. Thats more "normal" I'd think, but maybe in these new times, I'm just an old codger just like you (albeit on a diff schedule cause I work out, eat and am out the door by 7am.

and on a short term map....I found a dry slot. Wanna see that too??

I saw some on a 240+ LR map. Wanna see it?

yeah, I'm not even sure what that is.....its ok, dont tell me. I may need some "everyday vernacular" to liven things up a bit. SMH and lol

with all due respect....tell us something we didnt already know. Its a general winter disco board. Some of you need to stop acting like this is a NWS forecast page where all info is being shared to the media outlets. For all of us regulars...we know what this thread is, and none here (pro or otherwise) has the ability to accurately post anything w/ confidence beyond 5-7 days in many instances. We cant even get a banter thread...let alone a LR and SR thread...LMAO but thanks for stopping in tho.........LOL Your welcome to post here, but if the content bothers you, go back to Philly thread.

I just posted some thoughts and went back and saw this post. Great points man. We all know that save 1 or 2, that all of us are weather nerds at different levels of knowledge/interest. I think all of us know that while we take weather seriously, we are doing this just for fun (except red taggers). I look up to them, but down at NOONE here. And we all know (or should by now) that 90% of any 240+ hr map is merely shown for fun and not forecast. Its shown to share POTENTIAL-good or bad. Blizz surely knows this...we all do. JMO's but I agree w/ alot of what you said.

the plus's are that several A team models are showing anafrontal snows, and they look rather stout as currently depicted. Yes, we all know they usually dont work down here. MAG of course knows that, but he too thinks it a legit threat. I guess its all we have to "look forward to" winter wise (unless you like cold n dry....(without snow...meh).

I emotionally no longer "invest" near as much mental capital as I used to. I love the chase (like many here) but wont waste my life behind a computer, (or lose sleep) over snow, and yes, I still love it as much as I ever have. I just don't get the ROI that makes it worth it. I enjoy the chatter/lead up to storms in here almost as much/more than the snow itself. Thats really why I'm here (and not to raise hype, but look for patterns that may bring the goods). Many of us have done this for over a decade and are a wierd/disfunctional/whacked family of sorts (JOIKING.....sorta ). Thats the fun for me....and in truth, getting trolled of late....meh. I'm too old for sideshow BS. I havent forgot that I still owe you a beer. We should sneak out for one over lunch this week as I'm playin santa and have been on the road lots. Could sneat that in.

NAM extrapolated would be used 2x...both by me. Not dozens. Let him search. We know its a joke, but he thinks its actually us trying to "forecast"....LMAO

You can add the CMC to that camp as well. Notable shift away from severe cutter and now into Ohio Valley and transfers further east. Still not a good setup verbatim, but its not quite as ugly as there is some front and back end loving.

there is still enough variance showing in run to run differences, to not write off some white. Heck, HH GFS is a couple moves away from trying give us backend lovin. Would be great to see the gulf low deal start to show on a couple models as so much energy is involved, its not outside the rhealm of possibilities. Or it starts to cut further west like what we just went through.

dont see that on any maps that I'm looking at. Solid week of cold to follow next weeks grinch stole our white christmas storm

gfs at 144 takes SLP to Buffalo, then pops a secondary off Chessy bay at 150 and saves us all w/ a turnover to give a white christmas to most of the state. huhhh

thanks for the thoughts Mag. I think what "got" some of us was 500's looking good regarding ridge/trough axis on some ens guidance, and the hope was (for me anyway) was for a correction towards them. I'm gonna eat a little crow and say that the GFS ens guidance has trended away for coastal solutions and have gone towards the cmc/euro cutter looks. Not sure where we need to look to find signals right now tbh. Yes, I'm gonna get bashed, but the tellies IMO argued for a better solution (although most recent runs show AO/NAO headed twds neutral, so maybe that it s the catalyst for increased ridging now showing on most guidance? If you've got anything to add/share regarding this mess...I'm all ears.

This is a great point. Many moving parts to dissect with this setup. 18z at 120 shows SLP forming in Gulf. Wasnt there prior. I suggested earlier that it didnt make sense to see the heartland cutter (in my mind). I like that and think it may be a way to salvage this deal. Guess we'll find out how it plays out in a little bit

and as i look at nooner CMC out to 120 it has a much flatter look and lost the bigtime cutter look....so far. Likely still cuts but maybe a slight step in a better direction. Just a couple model runs, but rather dizzying IMO

Huge changes twds the Euro/CMC look Someone got a fork? We may need one soon. Not saying it can come back but model consensus has been trending the wrong way. Only possible savior could be where the models are forcing the SLP to pop back in Tennessee, and with all of that energy hitting the coast, you'd think the coastal pop would be more likely, but thats all i got for ya. Scratches head and goes back to chores.