pasnownut

Totally agree. No incoming TORCH is being advertised. Relaxation sure, but wonky things can happen in what lies ahead.

Its pretty cool to see this still holding as we've basically been seeing this for the last 5ish days on most guidance (as well as the locked in cutter look). Although not what we want, it should give faith in the models having a clue once in a while

Ens guidance as I suggested a bit ago flip flops the blues n reds, but its a broad trough that both the EPS and GEPS at 10 days is centered in the central basin, so while not great...not horrid either IMO. Gotta hope prime climo can help in surprising us tho

Here is the money panel from the 6z GFS. It's the time of year that we wanna believe, so here you go....believe away (especially us in the LSV. This is your path to a white christmas, and IF it verifies will really impress me

I'm also going to add that while there is no good looking snow threats other than our analfrontal event (that was funny), it really isnt a dumpster fire look either as we move beyond Christmas. PNA headed positive should help with keeping ridging out west NAO still negative AO still negative - both of these keep the cold close here in the east MJO low amp thru 5/6 (low amp is not an overwhelming signal, but after the novel I wrote yesterday-gonna keep an eye on it as that may be enough to continue to screw things up for us) Boiled down, its no blockbuster drool worthy pattern, but not necessarily a shutout deal either. Going to keep a casual eye on things and hope something pops up. As we are entering peak climo for snow/stickage, something is still possible.

Was thinking that very thing the last couple days. Despite the no snow part, it really has been a rather normal winter with enough cold around. Like you said, we just have some of the other right parts in the wrong places.

well played. We are all suckers for model runs.

Yeah I understand how they work, but as others have stated, while they CAN work, many times we get a brief burst (to whiten ground) and many times can see the clearing already coming off to out west. Trust me when I say I'm pulling for it to happen for all of us, but anafrontal snows are really tough SE of the blue mtn. History supports that despite what the models show. Whitening of the ground is a reasonable guess, but it has far more bust potential IMO.

eastern 1/2 of state would be dusting to 1 or 2" (except normal elevation winners.) Im putting a sugar plum fairy frosting of snow as my win bar.

Here is a snapshot of my worry blizz. Prior panel shows transition time, and this is our anafrontal "window" of snow.

With all due respect, I'm not sure he ever got started.... This is a tough sport. No denying that.

yeah there's definitely a decent shot at white christmas for some/many. Prob down here is that we will be warmed up at the surface and timing of best anafrontal snows will likely be during the fropa and we may lose precious stickage. Point im getting at is that for us SE'rs the window is rather small for it to work. It sure can, but I'm keeping expectations in check and hoping for the festivus miracle from Mo Nature. At the minimum, most if not all of us should see flakes flyin at the right time of year. Just not sure that it add's up to more than a dusting.

I'm just not feeling this one. I was hoping for more spacing between the 2 systems which would give the coastal/Thurs event a better chance for front end loving, but the cutter is close enough to screw it up and put a wreckin ball to any chance of that happening IMO. I'm pullin for the snow maps shared to have some merit, would be great, but count me out for part 1. Part 2 has been rather consistently modeled for some time now, and the anafrontal snow/snow shower deal looks legit for many. Beyond that and parsing over the ensembles was a real debby, and it may take a while for the "reload" to happen. Oh well.

Who are you kidding? We’ll take our 4-6” and just like our wives do….like it.

Agreed on a lot of what you stated. Yeah one of the old rules was to watch where a storm hits the Pac, as that would often be a precursor to where it exits the east coast. In this case that's not really applicable though. As I'm reflecting regarding the MJO, the only thing sticks in my crawl is that while it that while we are in low amplitude P2 right now, if one couples that with the other indicies, easy conversation would have argued for a better result that we are currently starting at. Obviously this aint easy. When I made my prognostication a while back regarding the potentially better times, I most definitely considered the low amp 8/1/2 and thought that when factored into AO NAO and rising PNA, it argued for a ridge west trough east deal. Late last week some were sharing "ridge too far W" and that was going to muck up our pattern here in the east w/ trough into central basin and not further east. Unless I missed it (dont think I did though), I saw little on Ens guidance suggesting this scenario as toughing was shown further east. I guess someone has some tool that I dont know about (or as you state, better pattern recognition skills) than most of us that were thinking better times ahead. Maybe a higher amp 8/1/2 is now needed as we enter this new regime. That in my mind makes some sense and I'll stowe that away next time things look more favorable.

I'll take an optimist over a pessimist any and every day.... Even if reality is often skewed to the neg. Yours truely, Realist

saw that and only thing I'll add at this juncture, is that as the trough is starting to lift out at that timeframe, that a more norther correction isnt off the table IMO. We cant continue this run of cutter/suppression/cutter/suppression. At some point something has to hit us. and while this post has some potential truth to it........... ground truth is I'm wishcasting hard.....troll away.

If the GFS has a clue and stays on que....Friday morning rush looks to be slowed a wee bit. Hoping many are already off and will be sipping coffee w/ Irish Liquor in it like I might be. Anafrontal snows look to be holding steady. As already suggested, downslopping likely takes some "fun" out of it down here in the piedmont, but we've seen fropas make it down here plenty enough to not discount what is being currently depicted. Only caveat is that if the gfs bias of being a tad cold is in play, this map could look notably different here in the SE regions

I wanted to respond to this yesterday but was on road, and my thumbs dont do well w/ tiny phone "keyboard." Yes, we've been in a frustrating base state over the last couple of years w/ a default of storms heading for the midwest and not under and up the east coast. Like a couple here, my fun or "specialty" (and I use that jokingly and for fun), has been sniffing out patterns and times when things MAY work out for our region. As you may have seen, there's been some "heat" thrown in/at me...especially when things haven't panned out as they COULD have. One of the things I was keying on was the Enso/current NINA aoa 1.0ish and close to peak. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf While I'm no met, I've been at this hobby long enough to be able to read through this and have a baseline understanding of the implications thereof. Yes some of it is still slightly above my pay grade , but I can parse through and get a feel for the implications thereof-knowing that as other factors (teleconnections) play in, no 2 pictures are alike as those influences fluctuate. Furthermore many post in the ENSO thread and I peruse regularly as we approach winter, as I want to get a "feel" for where things are heading. While the general consensus wasn't sure that this peak aoa 1.0 ish signal wasnt a great one, it also didn't necessarily mean that it was a kiss of death for us in the east. As some have seen, there is much data to review and maps avail for folks to get an understanding how things flow during these times. This is one example of disco and maps suggesting what the base state may look like when factoring other drivers like PNA/AO/NAO. https://www.weather.gov/iwx/la_nina. With all that in mind, one needs to do a blend of all signals...especially when no one indicator was seeming to take the wheel and drive the snow train. We currently are in a negative phase of BOTH AO and NAO, and with the ENSO on high end low/low end mod, there (in my mind) was no reason to write off the tellies at -2-3.0 states as they can sometimes be stout enough to POTENTIALLY offset/mute other factors. I refer all to the hyperlinks above to review what said base state SHOULD look like when the indicies line up as they are. Last thing to factor in was the MJO https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml I'm a big fan of using tellies as benchmarks for where things may be headed (knowing that some lead times ie. NAO often have short ones and others are more stable/predictable. MJO is currently coming out of 2 and was briefly low amplitude 8/1/2 (which typically is the money panels for the east/snow lovers). As we are now looking to head to less favorable phases of 4/5/6, that normally suggest that more maritime influence will warm us here in the east. Taking all of the above as a snapshot, this is why some of us went into this current period with a little more optimism than normal. It had little to do w/ the horrid winter we had down here last year or wishcasting....but then again....,maybe it did. While these are largely my thoughts and mine alone (despite some reading of ENSO thread and correlations to pattern from a 10,000 ft view), what has become more obvious is that even if ENSO state is not overwhelming....it is a significant driver and one that probably should get more weight by me/others. I'd also wager that conversations/disco would come from both sides of the aisles from those more knowledgable that myself/others. Depite the warm crew "winning", it could have gone the other way. Sharing for you (or any) that was trying to get a feel for why I was a big more optimistic about upcoming period. I also often share my reasoning with maps or other info to add credibility to my disco/conversations as that's why I'm here. Obviously it didn't work out and others were suggesting that pros weren't feeling it-which is fine...as they were right...but that doesn't really add to conversation/dialog and why some of us are here. That's why they get paid what they do, but I know I'm nowhere near alone in where some of us thought things may have been headed. If you or others have thoughts/opinions, It'd be great to hear, but I wanted to put this out there so that folks didnt think I was merely "wishcasting".

yeah snow is fine, but if we get the flash freeze that is being advertised that'd suck a bit.

Thats a fair point. We've been so focused on the incoming mess that many forget the pattern post frontal can deliver (even if the window is only a few days)

I've been keeping an eye on it for the last couple runs as its been close, but felt reluctant to post on grounds of further incarceration or being banned from the board (joking aside, I really dont give a rats ass-but the tone has been sour so I let it ride), Even if we get it, WAR is at the ready to cook off the snowpack as temps look slated to moderate, but hey we'll take a snow day however we can right? Hoping that we can flip back to a more fav regime as we turn the calendar and start the New Year and as I'll be off in between, I wont feel the need to spend 1 out of every 6 hrs sitting by a computer....lol

I'm just glad we should get this mess over with, so I can hopefully get my (not delayed due to weather) daughter at airport Saturday. Dont shoot me, but anafrontal ice/snow is not needed so close to the holidays. I also cant believe I just typed that. Guess I'm getting soft(er) I think Bubbler said it the other day, and I guess I agree.

huh. Thanks for the pro tip Steve. I dont to fbook much anymore but will check it out. Call home, They'll attest to the snow. Mt Carmel was also surprisingly white on the hilltops. Not sure if much will be left w/ the next cutter washin a bunch away, but it was a pretty drive yesterday.

I took a couple of pics for the doubters but they won’t upload. Too big. Yeah my wife thinks weather is a yawner as well and laughs at how much time I spend in search if it…and reading about it. Worse things to be doing I tell her.