pasnownut

oh and i'm just having fun...cause I've actually checked out a bit weather wise, but as always...keep an eye out for something to root for.

at 102 Euro trough more neg tilted....might it spin up something.... dough....at 108, there it is.....

also from 168 thru 216 GFS has a retrograding SLP heading our way from Bermuda. 500 map is one wonky looking deal, but that is one big storm as 500's show 6 countour closed slp. Maybe thats our regime changer....Had to look at the dates a couple times to make sure I wasnt day drunk. Nothing else seems to be working...so....why not?

LOL. Go look at the 12z CMC. It's going "coastal" on us. I dont go there but once in a blue moon, but I'm sure the MA forum is in "pants tent" mode. Pops a secondary and crawls up the coast. GFS hints at the same w/ secondary pop, but maintains a more progressive look and scoots up and out. Interesting...we've got nothing better to look at (other than those that got their 1" today).

Not sure I'll be staying up to watch/witness the flakes. Meso's look paltry at best.

Its like a hangover that you just cant get rid of. Only thing I'd say is that we are only in low end mod, and likely aoa peak, so it wasnt unreasonable to think that things could have broke slightly/notably better for what we've seen so far this winter. We really did have a couple of ok/decent periods, but they just didnt break in our favor. To the flip side, and at some point, you cant keep calling it bad luck, and have to rethink your thinking...right?

Thanks for the insight. I didnt look at 500's, just surface panels, and from what I was seeing up until what you shared above, the 500's had a slight ridge/trough look to them, so I was going off those prior looks. Yeah this surely shows it closed off, and would arguably pull the trough down as you suggest. Your point about lack of cold is surely evident on surface panels. IF this look continues, I'd hope column can cool enough to get it done for some/most in our group.

Snow has returned to the north woods. IF any need to scratch their snow itch....the businesses would love your company right now. http://www.swedenhillsnocam.com/

Looking at the ENS guidance wasnt a great look as we get beyond next weekend, so keep that in mind as the word transient came to mind when looking over them. Thats way too far out to worry about for now tho. Just keep in back of your mind when setting expectations.

CMC for next weekend shows and I80 special. I'd sign as I'll be at the cabin playin in it. LONG ways to go, but like the direction we are headed in with chances starting to show up....even if they dont quite pan out for all of us

sure would and sure are. that was one wonky run IMO. Verbatim I'd still sign, as its time for some/any snow we can get.

deal for next weekend definitely looks like one to watch. Not sure im buying the nooner gfs solution offered, as it shows a retrograde to stall (IMO pattern doesnt support that as we'd need much more blocking, and pattern seems to look more progressive. That said, it surely looks like some potential in the new pattern that is forthcoming

starting off w/ a bang for sure.

I'm sure if you do a deep dive, you'll find negative connotations/comments regarding what it is and what it should be. Call it what you want. It no biggie to me, but not my jam. Bing a realist (as many probably are in order to do this hobby for any length of time), is what many likely are, but I'm just not one to "pile it on" however it is stated. Stating what it is....just fine..never said it was a problem. Not seen too many posting about heavy snow and bitter cold in the last few years, but some have found their way to decent snows, despite what the board isnt seeing or sharing....I had snowmobilers playing around at the cabin thru last thurs evening, but most here dont care, so I dont share. Friends said conditions north of 80 were ranging from good to 10 outta 10 from Christmas thru thursday, so there was snow around....just not in our yards...where it counts most. Gotta run, someone find us some snow...... please.

I truely respect MU, but some of us can see when thing are looking more favorable, and don't need to be told when ...whether it happens or not. Thats all I'm getting at. Like you, I/others can also see the -'s just as much as the +'s in ANY pattern and most here know that 70% of the time things dont work out. We've done this for far too long to deny that, and know that betting on the fail is always the safer bet. Check my post history and you'll see ive said that numerous times over the years, but that said, if we would wait for only slam dunk patterns, this board would have died a long time ago. Thats just not realistic of late, and not how we typically win. More often than not, hybrid/bootlegin snows seem to be our way to get snow...even if not ideal or how we'd like it, so some of us try to find the needle in the haystack and enjoy searchin for it and share w/ others. Many of us are more balanced than we get credit for, but when things start to look better, I've no fear in suggesting that....whether it happens or not. Theres always plenty of doom n gloom being shared, so I've no interest in adding to it....even when its warranted (like it was this past week). I just take my mental break and casually look/wait for the next window to open. I hope you get my points and am sharing because it seems that camps like to form in a discussion forum, that really should be an open discussion forum of what can and cant happen in any given event/period. Noone should ever be dismissed for sharing thoughts (right or wrong) as thats the purpose of the board...NO?? Many with much more knowledge get it just as wrong sometimes....although probably with a little less frequency.

and to add to the gloom/reality. looks like winter wheat is greening up already. Darker green will attract more sun/heat and melt snow when we get some....Just like pavements do.

Yeah he was correct in his assessment, but with all due respect, it also could have gone the other way (and in our favor). I'm surely not alone in that assesment. I think of 95-96 when things didnt look good, but we found our way to a grat winter despite the way things looked. My rub is that you make it sound like as soon as some of us see tellies/indicies start too look favorable, that many instantly correlate that to perty colored snow maps that will absolutely verify. Thats just not the case (for most of us). While we all have different "skillsets" in our quest for snow, I'd suggest most realize that from a macro/basic perspective, we need certain indicators to be aligned to get a pattern that CAN work for us....even when it doesnt. We need certain indicies to be in favorable phases and sometimes in tandem to deliver the goods. If I may speak on behalf of others, thats what I feel many of us are merely doing...looking for ways to get snow. Of course some see it differently, and thats fine too. Without a good/decent "look" there is little chance.

ask and ye shall receive. Its a start anyways...

Yep....from a macro perspective...nicest run of the season IMO. CMC and ICON showing similar features/placements w/ large scale features. Good enough for now.

thru 288....GFS says bowling balls east as the "ridge" out west is somewhat muted (PNA only slightly + as I suggested yesterday). Even though its not a big storm "diggy" kinda look in the east, its surely a fast flow deal and as we all know....if you throw enough chit into da chute....you're eventually gonna get hit by some.

and to your earlier point about the pattern and how it can deliver, the pic you posted here, is a rather decent look w/ SLP/HP placements into a trough in the east......hand me the dice....I'll roll em with that look...even if a day later.

for upcoming event we have a general consensus that something is coming. Euro hasnt regained the crown yet. JMO, but i'd take consensus over 1 model. FWIW, the Euro is similar wrt this weekend and is "onboard" for something.

Not sure what you think, but through 226, this is arguably one of the nicest runs we've seen in an while. Verbatim we'd have a few chances at some fun. I'm liking the look. Ridge and trough axis is decent, and storms coming from the south would be most welcome.

Typical post frontal upslope snow flurries/showers for the normal folks. Down here....BO RING...but will feel more like the season should. All eyes to Sun/Mon...lol's.

s/sw winds were to aid in the mixing. When I went to bed it was calm....when I woke up, it was calm. We both know that calm winds in mid winter can lock in the cold at surface....no matter how warm it is above your head. IMO the mechanism to "scour" the cold didnt show up. That was the hunch I had yesterday when looking at satellite imagery wind profiles and temps for our area. Today has been forecasted to be warm for a while so once the fog cooks off, so will the lid on the temps. Warmies can once again rejoice.