pasnownut

and thats why I said yesterday that we may not be good for the "church" storm, but while it's creepin the wrong way, its still getting a lot closer to being good for us. thats they point I've been trying to make.

Nice work Blizz. You're all over this one, so keep up the good mojo and bring it home for us (well us as in most of the forum, as I'm likely in trouble down here).

pattern change we've been looking at has been slated to start later this week, so as we all should know, that doesnt mean we flick a switch to snow TV. May have a cut or 2 left before we stop the bleeding while canada cools and starts to feed us some 540s that get below us for once. Good news is like you shared, GFS is becoming more of an outlier in it's presentation. Pac reshuffle is step 1 and wouldnt surprise me if that 23 deal gets better but maybe not quite there yet.

that is a nice look. nice to see op runs staring to latch onto the changes upstairs.

just bustin your stones. I drive by rock lititz every day and today was a tad more busy. didnt know that's where he was getting sworn at...I mean in.

some might suggest you are a sicko for just attending.....

Looking at overnighters, I'm increasingly encouraged by the changes showing up aoa 100hrs+, as the PAC regime change starts to show and we get ridging popping up around the Aleutians which likely holds the key for better times as we can tap into the cooler temps. This isnt quite the look we want, but once we get out to 144 and beyond one can see that cause/effect in the conus. By 180 pattern becomes established...and chances should come. Lets hope it holds. Better for the show to start late than never.

having the Euro/CMC/Icon showing colder solutions is good to see. It'd be nice to see the GFS go back to being useless like we once knew it to be...

yeah us lower susqu folks are not looking to good right now. Plenty of time for changes....better or worse, but hoping the GFS is on crack n we can find a way to score.

Like i said, better for true central/northers.

German house model now has similar look for this opportunity as well. GFS is an unmitigated dumpster fire. CMC is workable for much of true central/northers for next week. I'll be back in a few days.....in hopes that our pattern change thats been looking to start later this week starts throwing some better looks up.

as was I

well thats what the board is here for....glad you enjoy it. Some of us actually make an effort to add value to it...even when it doesnt work out.

Speaking of LOL's, I always find it funny how people act like they "knew this was coming", especially when they dont go out on limbs and share that early on. For every poster that thought this was a ratter en route, one can easily find another poster that suggests "not so fast". It surely could have gone better than it has....so far. From what I've seen and read, many knew it wasnt a great look, but not a ratter either, and while we have lacked in the snow dept, we've had cool/cold periods to make it feel normalish. Yes, we have been on the wrong side, but reasonably close on a couple events that could have yielded a notably different tone in here...I wish we had other LR posters in here, but as I check into NE thread every month or so - and on rare occasion the MA thread, enough seem to share similar viewpoints, that there was no overwhelming consensus on this being a dumpster fire....even though it bye an large has been for many in the LSV. Some need to stop acting like "they" knew this. If they did, they shoulda spared all of us the misery of thinking otherwise. It isnt that easy, and we've all read from the "good ones" that also were wrong once in a while. It happens.

not sure it makes up for no snow, but a good chuckle is always a good thing....even if poor blizz bears the brunt.

shall we stop talking about the weather till you like what you see........ crickets..... and wierd stuff and more crickets. punts ball not sure anyones hangin onto anything post 10 day,but for those of us that take the time to share/offer up thoughts w/ info and reasoning...I'm just a tad confused at how this is wrong on a weather board? You wanna chime in and chirp about what you see (scared to ask sorta....) thats just fine. Were all ears. Otherwise......stay on sidelines n keep bitchin at the ref for the bad calls....thats always easier and more fun.

If the GEPS/GEFS have a clue, it looks like we are (and as always) 10-11 days away from better times. Only reason I post is that the changes are appreciable on the PAC side, as ridging is popping and much better placed for downstream corrections here in the east. Looking at other indicies this may work out a bit better than what weve seen....Just hoping that it has some staying power. MJO looks to traverse 1 and head strongly into 2 and I'm hoping that influence is notable enough to help. Only concern is that its headed for 3 which is not a good look for us, but thats to far out for me to fret over, and can adjust as we get down the road a bit (for better or for worse). I'll just take a favorable window and hit n hope for now. and if not, were always 10 days away from a better looking pattern

Yeah you can add that to the mix. Early ideas that it would fade and we'd be Enso Neut by mid winter are not working out. Last look we are at -.9 and it is waning, so that should help for the back 1/2 of winter. I'll also add that as we barely broke low end mod Nina, that it really wasnt an overwhelmingly strong signal that could be overcome by other forcing mechanisms. Add in a warming base state, and maybe it has more legs than I gave it credit for. I will add that while some merely look at Enso, and place their bets accordingly, history also shows us that while the odds may be tilted in favor, that their are quite a few instances that have proven that methodology to be incorrect.

This has been 1000% my feelings of the last couple years. When things used to look good, there was more confidence that the pattern would often show up, and it seems of late, that when the same indicators show, we struggle to get anything close to what we think should happen. This has absolutely been my biggest frustration of late. I used to be able to tell friends/clients/family when good periods were forthecoming and so much that some would book trips weeks out based on what I suggested. I wouldnt be able to do that with much/any confidence right now. Something has changed. Is it the warming climate that isnt factored into analogs as we use mid/long range guidance....dunno, but thats what I'm guessing.

only "bright" spot, is that we've had cold (always after storms....but it at least feels somewhat like winter. Just trying to not be a total debby right now. Hoping we get the looks being advertised later this month. It can quickly erase the ugly start to snow season.

My yard has yet to be whitened this "winter".

One of these days a 240+ ens run is going to happen....I just know it. That said, the pattern looks great beyond 240....like it usually does. Nice PNA ridge, and central canada looking cold w/ troughing in east. Someday.

This would be the way that it would have to evolve to work though, and verbatim, Im not sure how much better we can get in a progressive flow like this. JMO's tho.

Yeah I'm seeing that. IF trough axis holds, it COULD lead to a little better look, but were gonna need to see this for a few more runs, before getting giddy....cause right now, most are gunshy.

Euro gets eastern 1/3 of pa gets into some fun. Not much but better than going the other way, which we seem to accel at. That said, Euro/CMC and GFS have something to watch.