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pasnownut

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Everything posted by pasnownut

  1. pasnownut
    Looking at the setup on the 6z NAM thermal profiles coupled w/ slp track/placement, I'm gonna hedge a bet and say its coming out swinging as it leads off the nooners. But thats extrapolating.....
  2. pasnownut
    as you know all too well, down here in the LSV is often riding the line..... No matter if I like what they say or not, forecasters for our area earn their stripes. there i go again....defending them.
  3. pasnownut
    Noone is saying youre wrong, but coming into a weather disco thread and offering nothing but complaints wont win anyone over...cause most of us already know, understand and accept the frustrations.
  4. pasnownut
    at this juncture, still enough uncertainty down here that I can understand that. Wow, I actually sound like I'm defending them...
  5. pasnownut
    What an awesome experience that was. I remember it like it was yesterday.
  6. pasnownut
    icon actually ticked SE a bit from 0z. Not much but better but better than heading the wrong way. It lets go of the primary a tad earlier as well. Helps our precious thermal gradient. Cant believe I'm wanting to throw my chips on it, but it's definately inside the scope of options for us. Its an ideal track for us all things considered.
  7. pasnownut
    early morning GFS finally starts to come around to the earlier coastal. 0z run at 84 had slp in KY 6z has slp in south GA. Still not a winner for me, but gotta get the track right before anyone can fret over how much shoveling you'll be doing, but verbatim this track is coming in line and should make many central and northers happy. I still need to see the other camps stay south for me to be in the game. Shit..........I needed to get work done today.
  8. pasnownut
    yeah were all "down w da sickness"
  9. pasnownut
    or at the 0z's He can say all he wants, but hes a sucker for punishment - like most of us some of us just wear it better than others
  10. pasnownut
    Still setting a low bar down here in SE Pa for this weekend. Nice to see the Ens guidance still notably east, but soon enough (like tomorrow) we need to start paying more attention to the Op's (good or bad) as they will start to hone in on the have's and have nots for this weekend. Beyond that its silly to put much credence into individual storm disco other than general chances and pattern evolution.
  11. pasnownut
    I wish you were wrong but the word horrid'r comes to mind. Run to run variations are just crazy at long range, but even into the mid range its just dizzying.
  12. pasnownut
    Not for me it’s not. Verbatim it’s rather painful….but that how it goes. #makinbelieversouttaheathens
  13. pasnownut
    And if it’s not…. I’ll be your pal no matter what the friggin weather does.
  14. pasnownut
    Posting snow maps. You rebel I like it
  15. pasnownut
    Just a reminder of all of our spring snow events when its 50 the day before and a winter wonderland the next day. Not saying I like getting snow that way, but I'll take my chances in prime time climo w/ a storm south of our latitude...no matter the result. While its not south on every model, there is a trend in that direction. Guess we'll find out soon enough....or when the 18z GFS has it back in the UP of Michigan. flipppidy flop the model goes....
  16. pasnownut
    Thats the big reason many are here...correct. Rug may once again be pulled out....but if so, it wont be for the same reasons, as the PAC is starting its transition away from trough to ridging. THATS my takeaway, but for some, it doesnt matter how you fail...its still the same (and rather understandable).
  17. pasnownut
    and if thats not enough, same areas that get hit on the Churchgoersunite special...go look at the GooFuS for mid next week. verbatim you get shellacked mid next week. Again, its nice to see better looks and thats all I'm taking from it for now.
  18. pasnownut
    and furthermore, the GFS in the last 4 runs has trended notably further SE on each run. Go loop for yourselves. Nice nooners. Been a while.
  19. pasnownut
    True Central approved of the Kanook model as well. As stated earlier, I'm on the outside for this one, but if I were in central/northern pa, i'd be watchin this bad boy. Im not parsin over specifics at 4 days, but there's enough decent looks to not throw this one aside...and compared to where we've been its a refreshing change.
  20. pasnownut
    If this is wrong....it feels so right. edit: map already posted but his non heathen will leave it up.
  21. pasnownut
    as we try to decide if we are gonna take sleigh or boat to church, the normal upslopers look to get a fresh coating of white stuff in advance of it. (map shown for visual appeal and NOT a forecast). Cant believe we still have to type a disclaimer so deep into weather discos, but some think we print out pics of snowmaps and tape them to windows waiting to verify.
  22. pasnownut
    or is that the coffee just doing its thingy.........
  23. pasnownut
    and thats why I said yesterday that we may not be good for the "church" storm, but while it's creepin the wrong way, its still getting a lot closer to being good for us. thats they point I've been trying to make.
  24. pasnownut
    Nice work Blizz. You're all over this one, so keep up the good mojo and bring it home for us (well us as in most of the forum, as I'm likely in trouble down here).
  25. pasnownut
    pattern change we've been looking at has been slated to start later this week, so as we all should know, that doesnt mean we flick a switch to snow TV. May have a cut or 2 left before we stop the bleeding while canada cools and starts to feed us some 540s that get below us for once. Good news is like you shared, GFS is becoming more of an outlier in it's presentation. Pac reshuffle is step 1 and wouldnt surprise me if that 23 deal gets better but maybe not quite there yet.
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