pasnownut

Because so far this year, when a "good" pattern has been showing up on ens guidance, it often is muted or wasted as we cant get NS and SS to work in tandem, or the depth of cold/trough lose amplitude as we get closer to showtime. When a bad pattern shows, it usually verifies. Sorry pal....but ya just cant polish a turd and make it look good. Not saying we cant sneak a couple events in (like mid to late week as I suggested earlier), but the odds are not stacked in our favor, and being prime time for snow, its troubling for us winter enthusiasts.

Yeah things were not looking good for the extended last week already, but I was hoping a little more time and correction might play in our favor, and the tellies would hold a bit longer for us. Not the case once again. Is what it is, and if there is any consolation, the whole friggin east coast is with us (save the favored snow belts - and they are runnin way behind as well).

As i suggested late last week, I'm not going to be surprised if things eek north for midweek. nooners ticking N a bit. I'd keep an eye on it if you are in southern 1/2 of PA and in need of mood flakes or a whitening of the ground.

It was a great day of football for me, and yeah that was a rarity for sure. Wished Purdy didnt get hurt, but maybe McCaffrey woulda led them to victory as QB. Dude is a talented individual. My #1 and #2 teams are in the Superbowl. I cant lose. Love my Eagles, but Andy Reid is my all time fav. coach (so far), and I've been a fan of the Chiefs since he went there. Hoping for a good/close game. weatherwise, I'm hoping the boundary eeks north enough for midweek for us southers. We'll take any action we can get. Looks like the warmup is being pushed back (per ens guidance, but once beyond mid next week....WAR is once again winning. Hoping that changes as we get closer (or gets muted/shortened in duration).

or drunk......#pregamin

Hopefully we'll have a couple reasons to celebrate around happy hour time. BTW, ICON and CMC have midweek threat looming. This IS our best chance at cold, so lets hope for the storms to continually creep north as the events get closer. Thats been e consistent play so far so lets not try to break the hot hand now that the cold press may be able to help....right?

which is more than Lanco, which will make this likely verify....I'm making the BOLD call now.

check out the 186 hr panel then toggle back 6-8 runs (if you want a good laugh). Fret not bud. This could still end up in Cuba or Chicago if one puts faith in mid/lr GFS. Still looks like colder press looming, and as we've seen the WAR winning the winter war, that could create some fun if/when the GFS moderates the cold dome and we end up north enough of the boundary for colder sides of southern sliders (again if anyone believes we are headed into a period of suppression) -till that 300+ cutter locks in and slams Ottawa

My parents live off 72 near Mt Gretna, and they had a solid 3". I tried to use their 5hp snowblower, but it clogged constantly. MHS had a solid 2 to 2.5 By the time i got home, barely an inch here in Akron. No shoveling needed at all. Just some slush in spots on driveway. What a diff a 15 mile drive made. Edit....just saw the totals above...glad they agreed with me

Yep, that RGEM map I posted a while ago might have a little merit. Snow once again picking up in Etown. and 10 min later....stopped. lol

Yeah, I shoulda stated for us LSV'rs. IMO you central/norther folk really were locked into 3-6" for quite a while, so no surprises there IMO.

But you enjoyed the spanking you received.

my RGEM comment was also based on r/s line and not actual IMBY snow amounts. almost everyone busted there, but as bubbles stated, the RGEM caught onto something late, but GFS led the pack in being steady and close to who got wet and who got white. I dont put much faith in snow maps (although I do enjoy looking at them).

same here in Etown. Havent been out to see if pingers are involved, and snows too deep to see it bouncing off stuff

Heres my beloved NAM from last evening. Solid bust to the s/se sides and we may have a little more snow left to come. IMO the GFS did a decent job w/ r/s (like RGEM), but I've not seen a map posted that looks really close down our way. Guess that add's to the blended approach that we sometimes need to take.

Not good. Now light snow and I'd say 1.75" if I were a to throw a guess out there.

Thats what I was thinking also. I'd think you're right.

If the RGEM stays on point w/ this lower LSV special, I'll pay more attention to it moving forward.....promise.

Still mod snow in Etown. Closing in on 1.5. NWS said 1-2 so nice job.

Dare I say I agree. It has done pretty well wrt how this has unfolded. That's good, cause the 12z says, lots more model watching to come in the next couple weeks. Not a fabulous look, but enough cold and storms looming that we should be able to have a couple more chances.

While they struggled with this event, they nailed one earlier this season, so I'd say the takeaway is that models are just that...models, and we use accordingly and blend our own logic/consensus and go from there knowing bias/variables/tendencies thereof. That IS part of the fun of this sport.

not quite but closing in. its rippin

closing in on 1" here in etown. Heavy snow. already a winner for me.

Mod snow in ETown. All white. All caved. Cant wait to drive to MHS to see a client later on.

Its a wise move in challenging years. I've done the same but many here spend a lot of time all year and have a rather balanced perspective all year round. It was unhealthy for me a couple times in the past, and I too have adjusted my perspective and feel much better about "wasting time for snow". Hope your kids get to make a snowball today.