pasnownut

Sorry for what? Like him or not, JB punting based on MJO plots/progressions has WAY more weight than a 384 hr snow map shown from an Op run. Not sure why any would argue that. Just silly talk. Sharing JB is every bit as acceptable as peeps posting snippets from other subs/college meteo depts. JB's gone rogue, but that doesnt take away from his abilities....it just hides them rather well :).

theme of the winter. Even though Nina has started to fade (currently aoa -.8), early thoughts of us trending twds neutral by now (or by early spring) have not materialized, and me thinks that base state is going to be the death of whatever chances we may have had for backend action for winter). i dont know enough about Enso, but i know enough to know the regime really isnt changing much and makes me nervous about anything else being able to fight it before we close the books, as it truely has had the hot hand for us here in the East. Dunno.

the persistence of the WAR is undoubtedly killing off anything that tries to get set up/established. If the MJO gets outta favorable 8/1/2 as quickly as it got in, well that'd put a notable sized fork in the window we were looking at for late feb/early march. Mag posted the mjo plot earlier, and you can see that it is low amplititude 8 anyway, and as I think he suggested (and a couple of us have earlier this winter), you gotta have something more notable to offset the persistant ridging in the AO/NAO space, and while the NAO looks to get better, not sure if it can/will overcome. As I suggested last week, I'm just sittin back and playin watch n see, but as of now, I'm still a little more than cautious as I'm not feeling it yet. Hoping the SSW that is currently downwelling, can cause enough of a wholesale regime change to offset what we've been seeing all "winter".

CMC can be added to the "maybe" list. Still setting a really low bar, but I'll keep playin along.

and as I'm just posting above in fun, of course I'm rootin this on like I always do, even though it will likely be gone/different in 6 hrs. Just need some other model support. Tellies still don't look good overall, but NAO, MJO look a little better than last week for sure (looking into next week and beyond), so like I suggested late last week, lets hope for a continued trend towards better indicies and maybe one of these deal w/ work out. Climo would suggest that as we approach back end of winter and water temps off east coast are about as cool as they are going to get, that maybe we can get the east coast lined up a little better for winter fun before we close the books.

Oh its on somethin alright.... Since Valentines Day is for lovers....does that include lovers of snow?

That plus my fellow salesrep coming in and saying "pitchers and catchers reporting soon".... I may start my hibernation a few weeks ahead of my normal this year. (not that i hate baseball, but its a longass season that my ADHD doesnt do well w/).

I'm surprised noone posted the weekend 15" snow map the GFS had. Now, as usual, POOF. and fwiw, no other models (outside of GFS) have anything....cept the Euro right around the 240 mark. Of course some consolation flakes may fly post frontal, but we know that deal all too well.

Great game, but yep, sad to see the refs have influence in the outcome. And for those that say "hey, he admitted he did it", yes, that's true, but that's not the crux of the problem. IF we'd all rewatch the game, I'd bet big $$ that many subjective penalties were made w/ the little yellow flag left tucked in belt where it should have been in this instance. At the minimum, this was subjective at BEST....his hand was on his backside, but no visible tuggin. THATS why "us" eagles are a tad sore, as it surely changed the momentum going from 4th down, to 1st and basically closing the window on letting 2 great teams battle down to the wire. Congrats Andy Reid (my fav coach of all time), Kelce bros and to both teams. Great seasons and still love my Eagles. Ok....now back to the weather.............There is none for the foreseeable future.

Have a great weekend!! Sounds like a good time coming. It's about HH for me as well.

GEPS and GEFS are not droolworthy at all. Hoping they come around as things adjust again, but WAR really shows little sign of a wholesale shift from what we've seen so far this "winter", so I'm gonna be a big skeptic until proven otherwise. OTOH, one good thing that is showing is that Canada looks to have cold building, but without AO/NAO, it may stay too far north for us. Just something to watch.

Window should be closed a bit IMO.

Hey Nannook, I will throw $20 in if you send pics of you swimming (must be chest deep and in water for 3 min.....:)

But....as its friday and noones gonna rain on my parade tellies have gone from dumpster fire to slightly less horrible as we get beyond next week. Still not a good look, but hoping next weeks progression gets MJO through warm phases, and AO now showing a drop into week 2. NAO still meh but lets see IF this can morph into a better look in the final 1/3 of Waiting for Winter 23'.

I hope you can find the diamond in the rough, but boy it looks pretty rough pal. As suggested a couple days ago and mag just restated, this one needs good precip to overcome marginal (at best) thermal issues. IF we stay on northern fringe, I'm just not getting the warm fuzzies about snow down here. Like mag said, elevations west and sw of us should be excited, but us lsv'rs notsomuch.

This is what the LR looks like to me, so why not.

As Bubbles suggested above...whoda ever thunk in early feb we'd be worried about temps w/ an slp progged in a rather favorable placement (as per 6z's)? Cant say I'd ever have thought it, but without rates, we may be in trouble, so hope for a flush hit, and not fringe stuff. 540's way above us, so we gotta get into the goods to overcome marginal temps. Ops start to gain traction for 4.5 day lead time, so model watch accordingly. Below graphic tells the tale. LR guidance just doesnt show much of anything favorable.....not 1 of them (well the MJO is progged to "race" thru less than ideal phases, that'll take 2 weeks). But, with AO/NAO well into ++ territory, not sure there's much to hope for. EPO? Dunno, but I'm just not seein much. Somebody help me find somethin, cause I'm all but checked out for this "winter"-snow wise.

I edited a bit cause #2 wasnt quite as bad as it looked early on, but for eastern 1/3 of pa, we are all rain, so for me it doesnt really matter. Norther westers may be ok w/ it (verbatim).

Euro says just what i stated yesterday....congrats Chicago (and not in a congratulatory way as its mostly rain). And after that dumpster fire, dont worry, there's another dumpster fire getting ready to cut way friggin west at a hunch as model run was still ongoing, but you can see the ridging popping behind the pooper that is slated for next friday. edit.....#2 (saturday/sunday)starts south but is likely going to cause issues, so put your hopes in that basket. In summary...we get shafted 2x

Lol. Looks like the GFS it hittin the sauce a tad early today. And while I/we wanna believe....toggle back the last 4 runs and you'll see why I'm a tad nervous to push chips in (although the weenie in me is all in). I'd take my 3" and like it.....

that control run sure looks pretty on screen. Just need it to look perty out window.

I stir shit up and the weather gods respond accordingly... Dont worry, those 2 diggy snows will be in chicago for nooners.

to further the turd talk.... if it looks like it.... and smells like it.......

I personally have cancelled nothing, but for the forseeable future its lower odds than we've been dealing with, and that's just being a realist...not a debby (which was used in humor).

once again I find myself thinking of a previously used polishing turd analogy when looking at our "winter" future. Yall know thats not how I roll, and I'm usually looking for the way to find snow, but odds look rather low for a flush hit of something appreciable (and not a sneaky cartopper like I barely had this morning). I want to be wrong in the worst way, and I'll bud in line on the Blizz train if we can find something. Till then....just going to take a chill pill n roll w/ it. I've got a trip to Maine w/ 23 other guys hanging out there in a couple weeks, but am fearful that too may be in trouble if Ens guidance has a clue to the misty distant future (Gadomski ism)