pasnownut

Hope your vacation was a good one. Nice to see you back. I'm just going to say that if I didn't look at weather maps to the degree that I do, I'd say that its been a HELL of a lot better than last year. While I love the big dogs, the realist in me is happy for what we've had in the last 2 weeks, and it feels normal"ish" around here. Northern Pa has been MUCH better than last year. I'm ok w/ where we are so far and like you hope Feb delivers. and this is my glass half full stance, and I do realize places like Tug and NE states are struggling a bit. Overall...still better than last year.

Been snowing up there for the last couple hours. No mucho on the cams, but it is snowing. Check out http://skisawmill.com/webcam/ for live stream. If we get 3-6 up there, I'd be giddy. Me thinks 1-2 w/ 3" lollipops. Hoping the colder looks on Ops hold for this week and that we can luck into something. Snowmobiles are just sitting in my sloppy backyard right now....once again waiting. Heck, Tug still has rideable snow, but looks sad right now. May be headed up there soon if we dont get the good at cabin.

perfect snowpack decimation weather. At least it lasted till mid week as we thought it would. Boy did it go fast starting Wed night.

IF we had a decent antecedent cold, I'd be latchin onto the snow train.....but we don't. Miller B's w/ warm out ahead, just dont work well around here. No matter what the models show leading up, we WONT have it. Said it yesterday and I'm holding onto it. Elevation event is where the snow will be best. Somerset to Hazleton and surrounding locals in CTP and North country as well. What I am happy to see, is next weeks colder looks here in NE and as others have suggested, maybe we can get clipped or coastal next weekend. Happy Friday all.

Nooner GooFuS livin up to its name. Not sure that I've ever seen an alberta clipper go due SE....right off the right side of the map. and furthermore the 500's beyond that are part of the wonky evolutions I mentioned a few days back. a few days later a cutter to Nebraska that retros to Southern Colorado. Just not somethin we se often/ever.

snow map while decent for some, should be viewed w/ huge grain of salt nearby. IMO elevation within the "bullseye" would be favored to get what its showin. as always when I go warm, I want to be proven wrong in the worst way....so have at it.

nooner NAM looks more believable thermally, and is elevation event. SLP a smidge stronger and easter fetch cooks the snow goose.

lol. That IS foul.... Been through that plant many moons ago. Wanted to burn my clothing when I got home.

IF one believes....yeah, it did look good, but as i've always suggested, its gotta fit the pattern, and to me...I smell something foul..

Thats what makes more sense based on pattern. I like to see the blocking, but its a tad north IMO. Thermally, this panel seals the casket for me. 12hrs later...still cookin

upcoming weekend event has been a wonky evolution (transfer wise). Once that gets sorted out a bit better, maybe some get luck and freshen up. While I'll concede to the transfer, blocking up north has me scratchin my noggin as to why this will happen as depicted. also thermally, 700's are okish, but 850's are really lagging for se 1/3 or state. I wanna buy what its selling, but I'll hold for now. FWIW 6z nam came around a bit and is notably SE of 0z. I'll keep watchin...got nothin better to do while its raining.

who you kiddin..... you'd drink to many things..........

guess i shoulda looked at this post before i posted my previous one. GFS/CMC favored northers, this one favors many. You just found your model to hug. Just peeked on pivotal and it looks like ULL dives in to save the day for us...thermally. Not sure why it slides SE at 96 as the HP up north is too far N to force it under, but hey....what do I know. We'll take it.

My yard was showing signs of caving....to the grass, but like yours was still holding up where it wasnt thin. Tonight will be a snow eater. I've seen snow otg for about a week, so its a win for me no matter. Hoping we are trackin again soon. This weekend is a sneaky surprise for the northers (as currently modeled, but would be backend loving for the lucky ones), as cold has been scoured and is gone leading up to the Sunday potential and with a cutter/redeveloper, I fear cold is too late to do much cept for elevation folks, but I've been wrong before.

Thats a decent look right there.

many 384hr 500 maps come to mind.... Nice well placed PNA ridge in the west west based NAO or neg AO active STJ across the south. I can draw but I hope that works for your visual needs

and for any wondering what "wonky ass looks" definition is. See below. F'd up omega block is also one that comes to mind.

We've actually had a couple decent looks so far this season that had the 3 in play, just off on timing. With the active STJ, all we need is for the wonky ass 500 looks to settle down, get the PNA back to + and then maybe....just maybe.

i got a 1/2 hog last year. First time i've ever gotten custom meat. I will do that again. lotsa good eats. Oh and we'll start a gofundme for the cash. Much easier gift to get (than triple phaser).

all good pal.... just having some fun while we wait for better weather......

this post for 1000......

carp? is that in the sucker family.......

I'm going whole hog on the 9th.... anyone wanna box him in and take 2/11??

and fwiw, I'm not doom n gloom, just being a realist. And the realist in me just looked at the tellies, and all is surely not lost. AO/NAO headed neg in Feb, will get cold back/closer PNA headed neg - not good but AO/NAO could offset MJO headed twds p7 may help as well Unfortunately MJO/NAO are volatile and can shart da bed w/ the best of em, but IF one believes what the tellie ouija board suggests....it should be more workable as we turn the calendar.

Don't "like" this post, but I agree w/ you. While I've taken a break from models (while enjoying winter IMBY), after lookin at overnighters, this weekend event would have been sneaking one in during a shit pattern. Next week may try to do the same, but we need wholesale changes in pattern before we can get better looks and thats a couple weeks out. If we can time something just right/thread the needle, then maybe, but those odds are a crap shoot down here.