pasnownut

uhh dont you mean RRRRRRRR (cruize ship horn). Classic miller B w/ ctp screwjob after a bit of front end action.

CMC sure does have a crowd pleaser on it for next weekend. Maybe Trainer does get the only named storm of the season?

i hate hate hate humidity. Thanks for the reminder that it's coming.

Not saying YOU did. But you've seen the references. That's what I'm commenting on. I thought I read you stating that you were never into this weekend, but were targeting next week. Maybe I was wrong. NBD regardless. I know you're hanging your hat on the SSW downwelling to create the meaningful change needed here in the east, as that helps to force the NAO negative. I've done that plenty myself in the past, but as we both know, that, like tellies it is considered voodoo weather in some circles. I think it has merit for sure, and hope it comes to light, as I referenced it well over a week ago. Only worry is that while we may get the pattern "right", it may be too deep into Morch to really get more than 1 or 2 chances. Yes, I know '93 and other late events come to mind, but I think that premature at this juncture. if the look holds till next week at this time...well then peeps can start that chatter....assuming the rest of the ducks hit the pond. For now, its up in the air.

This whole winter has been a nothin burger. Tomorrow will be at best a couple hours of mixed for central and maybe a bit more for NE'rs, but to me its no "winter" event....and to most it'll be a just another tease. For those touting the Trainer storm for next week, dont look at the GFS, as it has it cutting for Nebraska. Only way that can work (and it has) is if it goes so far west that the secondary runs the block/boundary here in the NE and forces a pop somewhere off the VA NC coast. Thats a longshot, but a way to get a storm assuming the blocking starts to take hold. Still too much time to fret over it.

yeah, even if we get our pattern change (which I feel will moderate based on tellies not looking so great IMO), its really becoming too little to late for me/others. Its MORCH and we know all too well about sun angles n stuff, so here today and gone tomorrow really is fine, but not what most of us relish. My chasing is about done for the season, so if it happens great....if not, like you said....onward.

Here's the "best" panel from our beloved...... extrapolate at will.

thats only his first call.... he'll have 3 or 4 more before any storms come...

we had a coating of sleet when I went to bed. Was pingin pretty good off the tin roof. While it was nice to see (and yes I counted a handful of snowflakes on way home from work yesterday), still really a meh in my book. This weekend is slippin away (as of last 2 days), so if a reversal is happenin, it better start real soon (fwiw me thinks that aint happenin).

Agreed. Its a simple procedure that'll be a big help for the little one. Good luck @Atomixwx

an extra hour to stare at brown grass...........

only thing I'll say I'm hanging a thread of hope on is that the MR guidance is showing persistent troughing, but as PNA still sucks, its a look of suppression for anything small and once a biggun comes along, its back to cutterville. Verbatim the GFS Op shows about a week of cold post weekend cutter, but nothing appreciable until the next cutter comes AOA 3/12-13. Not saying something cant pop, but no big dogs in this hunt until it may be too warm. i need not remind yall how good things looked just a couple days ago. Hell, i was pulling my dusty chips outta storage and getting ready to throw some down. Telles backed off and whalla....here we are and thats pretty much where we've been (thinks of window crack pic I posted a little while ago) Only other caveat to consider is that the GFS ens twins look nothing alike as we get to 3 12 ish and by that time, were going to need a LOT of help for something notable. It can happen, but things better realign quick. Clocks still tickin but times almost up.

You know were all secretly pulling for you to be right..... My gut is only feeling the leftovers i just threw down. Weather natsomuch.

Not sure where your gut is getting that feeling, but lets hope you are onto something. BTW for all you lawn lovers, my chickweek spots in my yard are bloomin. Going to have to get at it early this year.

Absolutely. I love being in good company. I'll pack the cooler full for my weather weenie pals. WAR has won all year, and cannot be suppressed enough. I saw bubble's post about the ridging being gone, but my only response to that is how many 240+ "better looking" patterns have materialized this season. Of course we all want to believe (and many of us see it on LR progs), but the look never really holds....it folds. That is why I look at tellies cause they are IMO the dog that wags the tail wrt to pattern progression. We've had decent looks that haven't done much, and we've had decent looks falter. Only thing that hasn't wavered in regards to our base state... is WAR/SER. It literally and figuratively has held the hot hand all winter. Was hoping SSW event would propagate down and get us some help, but if it is....it better show up soon. That convo is above my pay grade though, so maybe Mag or others can chime in as to where/when they think that factors in.

Hope the week was a good one. I lol'd at the bolded portion of your post. Yeah, while I wasnt on vacation, I'm only watching with the casual eye, and after looking at nooners (so far), I'm glad i didnt waste much time on this period. Tellies are ok for the period, but MJO is laggin in 7 and likely not enough to offset/overcome the persistent base state...so its just another in a long series of cutters. I'm about out of waiting for better times, as they will likely need to be next year. I'm back on the mentally moving on train if anyone wants to ride along.

fortunately a cmc is south which as you suggest, give us LSV'rs a chance for a souther solution. Just me wishcasting, but we've been chatting about this "window" for a few days, and its starting to look better for us to have a legit window opening. 500's look better on GFS ens vs op for next weekend and IMO would suggest op would correct south a bit (less diggy and more progressive which would help us thermally down here in taintville). Many more iterations to come. Now I just have to uncancel winter in my brain, and forget about the Harley for a while, as I was "mentally moving on"

I would pay for either 6zGFS CMC scenarios to play out right now. GFS basically snows on me for all but 2 days. IF this would be my winter down here....at this juncture, I'd sign in blood for it to verify. Looking like the blocking may be legit (and enough to keep things further south). Sure hope this look holds (or improves). Good news is that its only a week out. Bad news......its still a week out.

Better way to capture individual event potential is to use the 24hr snowfall maps for any given timestamp (still not a great way to predict MBY totals, but its at least storm specific). As you stated, normal caveats apply wrt what frozen variety one receives. I typically use them primarily for frozen vs non frozen and roll the dice from their....lol

Yeah, 6z progression of the early morch mauler is about as good as it could get for us LSV'rs. Clean snow event. Hell I'm down for a dirty snow event. CMC has the storm, but while its quite a long duration event, its not as favorable for us south of the turnpike. Long ways to go but for now lets just hope the wintery signal holds and see where we go from there.

Thanks for the thoughts and understood. I get what your feeling wrt the progressive movement regarding the MJO and am not sure how it plays out. I was thinking more along the lines of the amplitude being shown - as well as the verbatim assumption that it progresses into P8 quickly at said amplitude. That, coupled with the AO/NAO trending notably into neg departures at that timeframe could bode well on the back end of winter here in the east. I've not looked much into the EPO and hope that it going neg is also another one to add into the good trends. I've personally written off the PNA as damaged goods wrt being any help in the east, and yes, am still fearful that even as the Nina base state is waning, the persistence of the -PNA is a huge stick in the spoke of our winter weather wheels here in the east. We'd be silly to think otherwise, and assuming that base state remains intact, as well as the WAR (that is likely a byproduct of the -PNA keeping the troughiness out west) ...we need other signals to be more pronounced to offset said base state IMO. Thats my thinking anyway, and I'm sure more goes into it than what I'm sharing. it hasnt worked out yet this winter,but if the signals verify as depicted, we may have our shot at some real winter.

here in Etown flipping back n forth w/ occasional parachute mixed in w/ pingers n light rain.

Looking over how things are progressing toward EOM and into Morch, I've gotta say that the 3/4 storm that is showing up on guidance has my interest, as the tellies are starting to support something in that "window". AO/NAO headed solidly negative, and MJO looping from 7 to 8 in that timeframe would give this window some merit. Just gotta believe the MJO progreassion that is being shown, and while it can change, it has changed over the last few days...and for the better i might add. IF it verifies, it is enough of a pronounced move to MAYBE get us into the goods.

Gonna need it's help to salvage some winter. HH GFS is heavy into the sauce. Gonna be a pleaser (virtually for now).

spritzed a bit throughout early afternoon, but dry enough in Akron to replace my wifes swaybar linkage but i did get a wet ass from the driveway. Better than playing w/ soaking wet firewood (which is why i took off today...other than needing a mental health day for myself). Happy weekend ya snowless weenies.