pasnownut

Yeah I googled it after I asked. Thx

the caboose is sometimes the KABOOM when patterns break down, and while its a little too far out to tell if its breaking down, if you see the NAO heading +, if timed right, that could do it.

after looking at other posts, it seems that it was already noticed by others. Dont name it after me

Its only 354 hrs from happenin....blizz of '23. THIS is the look we want.

As it always is. At least there is some winter showing up for the northern 1/2 - 2/3 of the state for this weekend. They can pad stats in this horrid winter.

This was my worry for the last few days. With a trough axis like this, its gonna be hard to lift into the block. We go from cutters to suppression. As already alluded to, when the block relaxes, thats when something can come up and say hello. Unfortunately, when block relaxes, so does the cold and what you get will be gone quick in mid march. Maybe #3 will be the one to get it done.

They are going into archives to pull out a map that shows good snows for our area....

Fair point. If I said progressive until it hits the coast, then bombs notably east and north, is that better ? Once it left our area, I didnt really look at later panels as it doesnt help mby. Let me restate that the trough axis is of a more progressive nature for our latitude, even though the 500 is closed off, and the storm does retrograde well ENE of us, for our hood its worth little to nothing for ALL of our group.

But even if we can get that 100 mile jog S, we'd need to hold it there till Friday as you know it ticks N inside 24. Furthermore the progressive flow would create a scraper to the E while us westers smoke cirrus and flip the Jersey Birds the bird. Loop the 500's and you'll see what i'm saying. Trough axis keeps it scootin well east for most east coasters.

Yeah there is, but if one looks at the 500's as i suggested a bit ago, there is a rather progressive look to the trough axix, so one needs to factor that in when thinking of what may/may not happen.

Well said bud. We need this well below us...not on top of us.

If you have that feeling, then your gut is learning the game. Like I just stated, keep an eye on primary and potential shift south in coming runs. IF that happens, it's your block pressing the boundary further south, and that holds the keys to the doors on the snowtrain.

That is the only way this storm evolution can give us a chance. Need primary further south and secondary pop further south as well. Yes, that can happen as the block may force it under, but verbatim todays nooners are nothing great. You need to see that trend continue in the next couple days. That's what I'll be watching for anyway.

12z is an absolutely perfect depiction of a CTP screw job. Primary holds onto the lakes (jacks our thermals) and they primary pops off NJ coast (way too far N and E for us to get any coastal loving)...and we get shafted....dry shafted.

LOL's. Believe whatever you want. Just posting what the map shows. I'll "enjoy my typical 7 snowflakes. Snow maps largely N of where they were at 18z yesterday. While i typically enjoy every snowflake I see, I'm about tired of being able to count them on my 4 appendages...and yes, on occasion I may need to use my 5th. Seems fiiting for this winter of getting the shaft. 18z from yesterday. 12z today

I cant wait for the winter to end....and give mo nature a year to reset in hopes of a better than ratter for '23-24. Even though were getting the cold to come, the pattern just doesn't look conducive to anything big snow wise. Not saying that it cant happen whatsoever, but looking at the models/evolution just doesn't give me a tingly feeling. Hoping my feeling is wrong and you all are sittin on the train looking at perty white landscape, but I guess I'm just jaded, and from my view, it just isnt screamin potential that some here are seeing. Pattern appears to remain progressive enough that nothing big can bomb (view 500 ens loops and trough axis), but surely we may score some nickel/dimes in the coming cold. Thats where my head is at anyway, but mind you I have a shitton of congestion in it right now, so that may by whats clouding my view. I

Notable jump N on nooner NAM's for tonights event. From 18z yesterday to 12z that's about 75-100ish mile jump. Not surprised, and largely why I wasnt jacked up about it, as it never really looked good for us/true central (yes, true central likely sees some, but not much to get giddy about). Pawatch to Bradford/ county and points E should have a nice little event, but something to remember as this good period may be looming.

Heres what we have to hang our hat on, cause the other signals aren't overwhelmingly awesome. This hi amp move into 8/1/2 is really winters "last" hurrah. While we've had other decent patterns where several tellies have looked favorable, we just weren't able to offset the base state this season, and MJO wise, none have had the magninute of this one. Hoping this can get it done quick cause other tellies are showing less favorable looks beyond next week, and that coupled w/ typical climo as we approach spring, says we typically need more help to get something good to happen. I'm happy to see this, but am not sold that it alone is enough as we get into mid march. A month ago yeah maybe. I hope you all enjoy the ride on the ITT Express...and save a seat in the back for me, I may buy a last minute ticket.

I've been doing the same. Some unbelievable snows out there.

Go look at the CMC. Not too dissimilar from GFS in how it gets it done....but it really gets it done....lol

And if the ground is brown and frozen.....tha'll just really suck. At least have it look like winter if its gonna do what its gonna do.

Yeah bubbler or someone else posted a similar graphic last week. I saw a tree w/ buds popping on way in this morning. There could be a lot of carnage if the cold look holds. 2m temp anoms arent crazy cold, but to kill sensative stuff, they just have to be cold enough.

yes please and thanks in advance.

and fwiw, if the blocking continues to press, one could see this all trend south, so I'd not put much stock in a D7 op run (ens guidance is less amped at 500 right now, so proceed with caution). It does look like this period holds potential, and while you can shovel it (yet), its a better look than we've had for some time (if it holds).

Yeah I'm just doing a verbatim analysis....so take it w/ a grain of