pasnownut

well definitely for NEPA. Looks like they can take the 1 off the 16"

still think its one to watch. That may be YOUR storm pal, and even if it doesnt amount to much...it cold easily be our best event of the year down here. Feel better?

its rainin mashed taters here in Etown. or big soggy ass parachutes........... intermittent but its happening.

Look at how that 3rd slp pops off shore. Wont happen like that. Toss this nooner from the mix. What will happen....who knows, but not that.

wow... and we can get 1" F me

couple lonely flakes in Etown over the last 30-45 min

@Mount Joy SnowmanEnjoy the tourney. Exciting for sure. @Itstrainingtimeneed bad days once in a while to make us appreciate the good ones. Hoping today is a good one for you.

No matter what happens weather wise down here......TGIFF.

as I'm lookng beyond tomorrow for us southers, I'm hoping we can pull something off or Monday event. If one can overcome marginal thermals for us low landers....thats our shot. Enough consensus on most globals really have me rooting that one on. Nice to see the HH GFS keep the boundary further south for the 3/18 event. May have 2 shots before window closes.

24 hrs ago 24 hrs later....and that bump north as promised

I just posted before I got caught up in above. I'll take any bet for hbg in 2-4" Sauss said he'd front me $$

dont look at the HH NAM. You might wanna buy a snowglobe if you wanna see flakes flyin as you are now teetering on the r/s line. Sauss n Blizz may be flaking while you are drinkin your sorrows away w/ white rain. southern tier back to Adams county is out (save a few pitty flakes early on). Mind you this is verbatim, but the north tick is not to be denied. Column is cool, but surface notsomuch. Precip rates/dews will help some overcome marginal surface, but not for all (like us southers)

IMO the Monday storm could be the best one to hang your snow hats on.... At least is a miller A coming from the south and staying under us. Best upside chance at big fun me thinks. After that NAO heads for neutral, and no other overwhelming signs to offset persistence of the season. GFS still way south of Euro, so a consensus blend still give this one a chance.

Looks like the ITT express needs to head north for rd#1. My guess is some seats have come avail. Suckasswinter

Glad you like the PAGCSC website. I helped build it a few years ago and was webmaster until last year when I said that I had my fill of helping w/ the club.

My place in Gaines got 9" from last event. Couple good days of snowmobiling from what I've seen on SM. I'da posted pics from cams, but I get grilled enough in here....

Northern 1/2 of the state has looked good for days now. Not sure why you are surprised?? I'll be in Houtzdale enjoying this snow w/ you tomorrow night. My comments about things not looking good were more for the LSV/souther crew that may be in trouble thermally for the next couple events. Central/northers should have some fun for both.

It is the best looking pattern that we've had, but as some of us saw it coming, this year has been proving that persistence (WAR/SER) coupled w/ a bad PNA flow regime, has been stout, and something that needs alot to overcome. We need better PNA ridging to get better troughing here in the east. I'm not saying the upcoming events are doa, and I'm hopeful we can score w/ one of them, but we really are at the back end of the window (no matter how good things look in this horrid winter), so one needs to keep that in mind when looking at snow maps.

I've been blowing the trough axis horn for a while now, as thats been my worry. While we have the NAO helping, the persistent ridging out in front of the events is still hurting our chances. Yes, the boundary layer has dropped notably closer, but its still not enough for many in our group. That's all I've been trying to say. Northern crew should do ok/well. Yay for them. IMO thermal profiles while better, are still marginal (looking at 850's/2m temps) and knowing that its almost mid march. I'm just tempering expectations through this period. Of course the snowhound in me wants this to happen, but the realist has hold of the leash.

When the GFS makes it inevitable tick north, it'll be the ultimate kick in the kahoonas for Friday. At least it was "closer to something" For the sun/monday deal, its already slipping away for some/many. Not sure where it ends up, but at least its something to track?? Im trying to put a + spin on reality.

We'll see. Temps for the best panel of precip says that may be further north than Tpike. You can likely add a couple deg for this as is often the case.

We needed a quicker transfer for Friday to work. Primary to Central Ohio is the kill shot for us southers. Without the blocking, it'd be headed for Chicago like most others this year. At least its giving some in our area a chance at winter precip. And even if we could have gotten the quicker transfer.....you have a dreaded dryslot, which a storm being so close (even if it was under us a bit more) - would likely result in the Susqu skip zone as coastal takes over.

For Friday, as its currently depicted, marginal and mid march does not bode well for lower 1/3 of state. Like I said, mood snows that whiten the ground is better than nothing. For Monday dealeo, I just saw the cmc and would be giddy if we could hold that look. Its really about as optimal as it could get here...but thats me also wishing it to be the correct solution.

Sounds reasonable. Friday has been too far W and N for us LSV'rs (although it continues to eek SE) but like you suggest, its a marginal event for many here cept true ctp'rs and points N/W/NE Monday, while I know everyone has seen some of the outputs on the models, really is ok as currently modeled. Trough axis really doesn't let it gain much latitude (even though it likely will as we near game time), and it really cant bomb out till offshore and beyond our "window of chance" with it. NAO is doing its thingy and keeping it suppressed, so we just get some nice mood snows and hopefully a nice snow day...no matter how much is otg/imby. Beyond that....gotta root on the Ens guidance as GFS op shows more of what we've become accustomed to, cutters then cold.

Here is why it cant climb. Been sayin this for days. Trough axis. and yes....I'll gladly take my couple inches n like it.