pasnownut

While I make no claims to be a data guru, I'll say that GFS was sniffing out last week early as well. Hence my reluctance to shift. They ALL are going to go through various iterations until this gets closer. Last week we had a general consensus and only once inside NAM's range did we see thermal challenges shown by NAM despite strong CAD/antecedent airmass in place. also, post mortem, the primary never ceded to the secondary pop, and us southers know how that worked for us. Call me what you will, but there are no KINGS in weather models anymore. As stated many times, I look for consensus at this juncture, and at this juncture the only consensus, is that there will be a storm.

FYP as it was a little dated. I just updated to current status.

I just checked both EPS/GEFS clustes on pivot, and both suggest more members being west. I think at this range, Ens guidance still holds weight and then once inside 72 ops take over. I remind everyone in this group to think about where we were 5 days ago for last weekend....and where we ended up. Biggest moves were inside 48-60hrs @candersonI dont disagree, trouch axis not ideal, BUT if you get 500 to dive in (many showing little phasing), that could absolutely help pull this west and if vertically stacked, notably diff outcome. GFS was not horrid last weekend, so while an outlier, i'll not discount, yet.

IMO yes. We've seen this before. SLP comes more W n a bit better tucked, GFS wester solution is not at all unreasonable and right now W goalpost. SLPs fighiting over whos king of the fishies down south also play a BIG role in where/how SLP climbs up coast. WAY too far from being worried. I know we live in a world where we all want instant gratification with everything at our fingertips. Mo nature doesnt buy into that notion very often. Base state is ripe for a good one, and thats the first checkmark needed. 36-48 hrs at least till we get an idea of where this thing is headed.

after 120 hits the wall n scoots. Prior it was decent. still going to be another day or 2 till resolved. Goalposts are wide. If I have time I'll go to ens slp clusters and see what they show. Blizz if you are around and can look, please do.

its looking fine out to 114 and waiting on next panels.

I agree on the first part. Still have to work on you a bit for the second part. HEHE.

You slip on da ice??? You OK. Us snohounds are proud of you.

until models resolve what bundle of fun to focus on, easter - wester solutions will continue. west solutions show better phasing where easter ones keep separate and more progressive look. 500s diving in on all, so we still need to resolve how well upper and lower levels want to play together. All the fixins are there for a vertically stacked humdinger, but just like a great football team, you can have all the right players, but that only looks good on paper when you are golfing during the post season.

Icon was trying. CMC wonky - east but could be right UKI east. consensus IMO - there is none yet

Ukie misses the phase at 500, hence the easter solution.

Remind me not to give my opinions before run finishes. CMC ries for a late save. Still a miss but still rather close. QPF still in SE pa. they get scrapped.

Pos tilt on CMC is no crowd pleaser. gonna scoot me thinks.

CMC wonky and SE evolution out to 102.

lower Chessy I see a 28" max that was 150 miles south 2 runs ago. lower astern shore went kaboom

nothin atypical of miller A's. winners n losers on NW quadrant of qpf shield know this all too well.

GFS says 4-6" for philly Nice step.

500 dives in nicely. Good step towards somethin.

yes but SE Pa approves of the moves. They are back in game. Not sure how long youve been doing this, but this is normal and expected ebbs and flows of modelwatchology.

at 120 snow breaking out SC and SE pa closer for sure.

GFS notable tick W at 114. ....

IMO its because 7/10 times that attitude wins. GFS trolling hard at 108....

Icon ends as a closer miss. Still a ways to go for us to get excited. at least it keeps hope alive.

out to 108 ICON says, this aint over yet. Tick W is evident.

ok, i'll point out one negative. Euro at 114 shows another piece of energy SE of it and next few panels it pops a secondary way east. Others also need to resolve the primary and where it pops off coast. Me thinks this is why it shows east progression, and while Im not calling that bunk, I am raising the skeptical flag. Euro needs to sort that out before we really can use it for a viable solution. That energy tugs this bomb (primary) east.