pasnownut

I'll not be up at 2am waiting for it to start. I'll get up around 4-5 and hope that we've saturated and turn the snow machine on for the entire day.

In truth it is tucked, but the progressive/non stalled evolution is why we miss def bands here, but further NE, it could be game on. And speaking of, If patriots were playin in foxborough and not denver, man o man that'd be a fun one to watch. sadly no so.

Mind you, i'm just a weenie like you, but based on trajectory and synoptics, I think taint is minimal/mitigated as a result. IF trough axis was more neg tilted, I'd think many easters would taint/rain, but as it is coming at us and not up, thats why I'm guessing we'll do ok (yeah, likely some taint, but not until we get a substantial thumpin). As antecedent cold is stoudt, and I'm hoping CAD saves us east of the Apps. There is notable wraparound qpf being depicted on some models, but my gut says deform/deathbands would likely be further NE when coastal/secondary really gets crankin. My gut says were just standard run of the mill wraparound lite snow to finish. These are merely my thoughts, and remember, you asked for them. hehe Gonna b a fun one no matter. Just glad the entire state is in the game for a good event.

actually as depicted by many models, secondary takes a rather favorable path NE. While we have stoudt HP up north to feed eastern spine of Apps w/ our CAD, lack of blocking (50/50) means there is no reason for this to stall, and should remain somewhat progressive. Longer duration being shown is more of a byproduct of bariclonicity and NS/SS playing off of each other. Longer duration being shown on some also is a result of wraparound/deformation which often happens in notable events like this. Truth told, the outcomes being shown, are almost as good as it gets based on upper air features, and we really cant ask for more IMO.

yep, transfer does happen, and GFS has it taking a classic path Ne up the coast. 6z is even better than 0z. Goalposts are starting to narrow, and regardless of what we all want/wish for, this looks to be a memorable event.

now that is a picture not often seen for Pa. Wow...just wow.

ive really not looked post storm, but yeah, that'd be rather disruptive to travel if the state has =/- 12" otg like some models show. Ol fashioned winter sounds awesome.

yeah i know it is but as you know, we look at all for trends and there are 2 that think the warming and taint should be a concern (in addition to typical climo that always has that fear for us southers). I'd think if we "survive" today, we'll be ok, and yeah, if we taint after we get pounded, thats fine.

with GFS Ukie, and Euro looking good to really good, that's a nice way to start the day. Surely not wise to discount Icon and CMC, but regardless it looks like taint is possible but shouldnt be a major factor north of M/D line. Hope that trend holds today.

so far 6z's largely held serve but Icon has us southers sniffin and seein taint. Regardless of antecedent cold, the lack of 50/50 is possibly why, but my hopes is that as CAD which is often stronger than modelled, will give the late correction S as we near go time will hopefully bring southers back. LIke others have stated, i'd be ok w/ a more strung out/less pronounced deal. Would like to see the quicker secondary pop as well, but thats wishcasting and doesnt really count disco wise. IMO that'd be a byproduct of a more strung out deal. today is make it or break it day IMO. I'll be on the road much of it, but will be watchin as best i can.

sno maps for cmc also give us southers a little more wiggle room. Trend was a good one for now. ttfn

cmc at 96 pops secondary 75 miles off s jerzy coast I'm right on the taint line, but I'd likely be pingin. wraps up at 102 is not bad either, but not GFS....my new love (well for the next 6 hrs anyway) to whomever is on the night shift....keep ahold of the wheel. gnight all

CMC at 90 has 1003 primary slightly n of 12z and is in southern ohio. warm nose is there

at the minimum, this one gives us southers a little breathing room, cause we were feeling the heat earlier today. if this is a byproduct of the new data being ingested, keep eatin what your eatin GFS

primary was less of an issue adn secondary was just perfectly placed adn takes a more tucked track NE.

at 114 shes wrappin up, a 36 hr all snow event. bombs away baby

at 102 - 24hrs in and still lots more to come verbatim this could be what weve been waiting for

at 96 secondary prime position and tucket. warm nose was cut off yall r gonna like this.......

at 90 GFS notably more amped qpf field HP up north 1037 vs 1034 prior slp pops 100 east of hatterus warm nose is small but there.

Icon also notably S wrt best snows now through lower susqu valley and into northern MD. Guessin 75 mile tick S and thats a sizeable tick

shouldnt they be called snowcane hunters in winter?

ICON also snows till mid mornin monday....verbatim. nice start for 0z's lets hope for more good ones.

ICON did not dissapoint, and stopped chuggin the warm skunk beer from the moldy stein. Just a tick better, but better wrt thermal intrusion from primary and slp slilghtly weaker. LNS held on as all snow.

found this read interesting from CTP afternoon disco KEY MESSAGE 2: Increasing odds for heavy snow and moderate to major winter storm impacts Saturday night through Sunday Confidence continues to increase in the potential for heavy snow and moderate to major winter storm impacts across central PA this weekend. As is often the case, the primary model uncertainty differences center around the interaction between the northern and southern branches of the jet stream which will ultimately steer the storm track and associated placement of winter wx/max snowfall. Latest models have doubled-down on the northward trend that was very evident in the previous 21/00Z model cycle. Big ? remains will that trend hold or will there be a reversion back to the south. What we know at this juncture: 1. Ptype should be all snow as arctic air remains locked in place 2. Most likely timing for heavy snow is Saturday night through Sunday night 3. Odds of >6" and >12" of snow have trended higher (maximized over south central/southeast PA) with an increasing risk for moderate to major winter storm impacts this weekend What we don`t know yet: 1. Exactly when, where and how much snow will fall

my point was that it's NOT going to cut. Strung out and less amped means not cutting west of us.