pasnownut

I took advantage of the nice evening sans howling wind, and took christmas lights down last night as well as brought another load of wood down. Pattern looks loaded later next week and beyond. Trough axis hurtin us as best qpf well off shore, but IF we can get better spacing and less progressive w/ the flow, it might give something a chance to spin up a nice miller A. Going to be a lot of sorting out in the next few days, but it's fun to look at no matter the result. The chase is a big part of the fun for me. TGIF boys n girls.

Euro is trolling hard with the southern sliders and lobes of energy diving south that you can see the sparks getting close to the fuel down south. Timing issues a plenty, but something to watch.

was outside for a couple minutes to get somethin from my car and the word "balmy" came to mind.

Yep. Looks like we'll be transitioning to a busy time and while the chances look to be there, its going to be really into short term till the subtleties get sorted out, as that will make notable difference in backyard, and on perty snow maps.

Incoming snowmageddon at 348 GFS. You wanna look....ya know ya do.

If that one doesnt hit, then the one right on it's heels looks like something ready to pop. Timing/spacing is critical w/ so many vorts in the chute. Could be lotsa nail biting for us starved ones down here. Just seeing the pattern evolution and amount of chances, I'm happy at that...for now.

nooner GFS for 1/15-16 event keeps the progressive look and is a scooter OTS. Toggle back through last few runs and theres a tad of variability....

After the walk down memory lane..... Well looky at Z Icon. Staring the nooners off w/ a bang.

Lol. this brings back good memories, but Ephrata (my school district) was often the last to cave. I think they used the same playbook as CTP is often accused of. We'd be lit up because everyone around us was closing, and we were stuck at 2hr delay.

Now you got me thinking, maybe it was OPERATION ALERT for I105.

Down here in Lanco, I105 was THE source for "OPERATION SNOWFLAKE". My brother and I would SIT on our stereo/record player (yes they were THAT big back in our time) and look out the window watching flakes fall and waiting for the "we have updates" between classic country songs. They did it every 15 min. We also had our little NOAA radio also going in background giving storm updates. Our channel was at 162.55 Megahertz.

No need to stop. Its all we have to talk about winter wise right now. Maybe by this weekend if somethin pops, you can save the stories for another boring stretch.

Its been so long since weve seen a triple phaser comin outta the gulf w/ the PV diving in. I'd give body parts to see that.

As Trainer alluded to the other day, 2010 twin blizz's were rather epic (weather wise) for us. The second storm was when my kid and I hit culvert w/ snowmobile and broke is femur which led to emergency surgery....no so epic. Looking forward to the next few weeks. Could be fun.

Been thinking the same. Looking at pattern evolution doesnt have that look....but seeing southern stream getting active and lots pinwheeling through the NS, you can see how chances are increasing, and it's litterally a matter of time(ing) till somethin pops. At the minimum it really looks active, so me thinks much modelwatching is about to happen. Prepare for blizz's snowmaps

CMC not as good as 6z GFS, but its closer to something. Still need to sort out energy w/ NS and SS. longer duration light/mod event verbatim. I'd sign.

6z would be a long weekend for many..... dont look at nooner. missed the phase and a big nothinburger. Just one run, but still has a good look.

fwiw, 6z GFS makes your wish come true. Verbatim a true miller A and a CTP shellackin. Funny that 12z loses it, as the NS/SS phase is late, but still has a decent look to it. As has been stated a plenty, after the few day warmup/thaw, we should be back to "storms and rumors of storms". I love that catchphrase.

I had a Compaq

Really like the ridging in AK that is showing up on ENS guidance. Gives NS a chance to lock in and not be as transient as we've seen when big storms come up and cut. Hoping pattern gets storms back to coming at/under us, and not cutting so far west. Looks like that starts to happne abt a week from today. IF this look holds, I'd think trackers will start to show up again. till then...we thaw.

fwiw, looks like an extra day of thaw is being added on the backend of this weeks Jan thaw. Fropa now sunday.

his split flow is evident aoa 1/17 and beyond. Just like the wierd cold pattern we've been in, its about timing of two streams/vorts. At least the SS will be open for some business and cold will be a bit more stable and close by when needed.

Negative ghost rider. Specially up in your neck of the woods. i'd think SE of the mtns might get a few peeks, but w/ that SLP traversing to your north, I'd think you are socked in.

Be careful up there. After this past weekend, we agreed it was some of the worst getting around in the hills that we've seen in some time. I agree, the warmup is going to be welcome for the northers, in hopes that the ice layer takes a beating. Like yours, my driveway was a mess up there. I didnt do a great job of plowing/cleaining driveway, because my UTV couldnt get through it. I feel bad for the animals that cant get through it for overwinter browse. One farm we know lost a cow Friday as it fell and broke stuff. Hard on them too.

if ens guidance has a clue we have a window of opp coming, but not sure how long it holds. Twds the end, Pac looks better but with NAO headed pos, not sure how deep cold will be. AO highly questionable, but verbatim would be slightly neg. to my eyes, MJO low amp is muted signal, so I guess it really is up in the air, but lets focus on next week and see how this cookie crumbles. Not great...not horrible.