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pasnownut

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Everything posted by pasnownut

  1. pasnownut
    yep. Icon did as well. staring to narrow the cones, but like mag suggesed earlier, if we keep that tucked look right off the chessy bay i'd think scent to poconos should do well (enough). If it escapes east, some folks gonna feel the sting. trough axis still eeking a bit more neg tilt which should help throw meaningful qpf further west.
  2. pasnownut
    I think we all have a good shot at warning criteria. last storm I got 8 while those not too far from me got 15", so I guess turnaround is fair play eh?
  3. pasnownut
    after looking at 0z guidance so far, I'm setting my bar at 12" in northern Lanco. I also realize that I might be riding the pain/pleasure line, but am loving it all the same. With outliers continuing to bow twds the new King GFS, I wouldnt be totally surprised to see 1 or to ticks W, especially if the Euro course corrects and keep the tuck theme going strong at 0z. trough axis is what I'm watchin now, as we know the storm is going to be a doozy.
  4. pasnownut
    Nice to see the westward ticks continuing. Were going to run out of them sometime soon, but hey, 1 or 2 more would make many happier than we already are.
  5. pasnownut
    I'm not sure I totally buy that, as there isnt a huge H parked above us to suppress wester qpf expansion, and yeah its a wound up beast, but I'd think a little better western qpf is possible as we close in. I'd not think huge bump, but maybe a couple inches more than currently modeled. also looks like norlun feature is not as big a deal, and its just more of a classic shellackin.
  6. pasnownut
    It really is impressive, and while I know some will troll me for sayin it, I'm glad the GFS may get one, as it just adds an extra layer of WTF for modelwatchin, cause now we have to consider it once again. If it sees this across the line, I will not use GooFuS for the rest of the season, no matter how good or bad it does.
  7. pasnownut
    since you can do the pic thingy, pull hr 78 on GFS clown map...please n thx
  8. pasnownut
    GFS at 10:1 brings the hammer with a 24" between me and Chesco.
  9. pasnownut
    GFS tryin to stay lead dog and makin HH a bit happier. WOOF Nicely tucked and a bit further W. I agree that we are runnin outta room, but little wiggles like this are still going to happen, and this one is totally fine by me. GFS....I'm impressed.
  10. pasnownut
    and the Euro as per Accuchris. likin the trends. Lets hope we can continue this for a couple more runs.
  11. pasnownut
    euro AI joins the sharper trough team and looks better. Another +1 for team snowhounds
  12. pasnownut
    goalposts narrowed a bit, but subtle changes can make big differences for our W vs E sub members. Still need to watch NS and how it dives in. Need that to hold and not fold (some nooners less neg tilt, and some were a touch better). Root for earlier interaction to keep trough neg so this thing can come up and not up/out. Based on progressive trough theme of this winter, its a worry of mine, but fortunately we are getting close enough that big surprises are starting to wane a bit.
  13. pasnownut
    based on SLP track, one could argue that qpf depicted above is a bit underdone for skook n points NE.
  14. pasnownut
    was just looking it over. SLP also came a bit W of 6z.
  15. pasnownut
    Just posted before scrolling down and seeing your response. agreed fwiw
  16. pasnownut
    its sorta a hybrid B IMO. has primary that pops secondary, but its obviously well SE of typical primary up Apps to coastal.
  17. pasnownut
    lookin at it now. Yeah, we'd sign. wow
  18. pasnownut
    as stated earlier, NAM early into storm range often seems lost for a run or 2. Not surprised at all. Not saying it is final solution, but its just the NAM doin its NAM thingy
  19. pasnownut
    wow. That starts the day off well for forecasters....boy I do not envy them right now (well the ones who are tryin to do it right and not be arrogant and rant - thinkin DT types....dude is eatin lotsa egg off face as of right now). Waiting for his backpedal post when nooners come out.
  20. pasnownut
    do you have older panels to share? I'm assuming thats a change in the gooder direction?
  21. pasnownut
    NAM at this range often does wonky things. I'd ignore that - and not because i dont like what it's showing. Plenty enough consensus forming that your gettin snow.
  22. pasnownut
    RGEM coming around twds GFS as well. someone pinch me.
  23. pasnownut
    as already stated, ICON takes a pretty substantial move twds the new King. I'll be dipped in dogshit.
  24. pasnownut
    BTW, lots of "things" annoy me in that thread. Has been largely unbearable in last few year, and why I gave up postin there. Wasnt horrible when i peeked earlier today.
  25. pasnownut
    agreed. norlun is just a part of this potential event. I can see why folks are rooting it on, cause shit gets serious if one is sittin under that deathband. Otherwise its light/mod snow and a few inches at best (unless GFS steals the crown for the next couple days. Then we are synoptically pummeled.
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