pasnownut

Yeah thats nice. I'm expecting Nov/Dec torch(s) as "normal" (uses rather loosely) NINO climo suggests that may be the case, but so far, autumn has been real nice. Just need to find a way to get the storms ot of the way midweek, and not on weekends.

My street is at the bottom of the hill in Akron, Other areas were low lying areas on way into office and is exactly what you stated. No frost observed on ground tho. Just sporadic rooftops in said areas.

I saw 37 on car thermo just outside of Akron/Lititz. I had 39 at my house. Spotty roof frost observed as well, mainly between my house and Manheim.

My son, his wife, and a bunch of friends were there also. Hope you had a nice time. Sounds like it went rather well?

mowin n mixin w/ a splash of weather

This looks awesome and like a rather good lunch cocktail.

hate to say it...but warm early Octobers is not much of a qualifier for Winter 23-24' outcome imo. If we add in high end MOD/Stong Nino then maybe it gives a little more credence to the list that would be shown (much smaller as well IMO) Warming base state plus ENSO/EPO/NAO/AO offer a little better glimpse, but as we all know, some don't show their cards until closer to game time, but thats just how my brain sees it.

Yep, It'd be quite a bold prediction to think that more Indian Summer is not on the way. Ens guidance beyond 240 starts to diverge some as we get twds end of run (not putting a ton of faith in that - just an obs). Havent looked much deeper to see how the other indicies are lining up.

They have 2,000' more of elevation, and yeah, that can "add up" in the winter. and yes, ULL sits above us for a couple days and feeds the area w/ colder NW flow. Been consistently showing up for a while now and doesn't seem to be losing steam as we get closer to Saturday.

My son just got married at the Mt. Hope Winery (part of the Ren Faire) on 9/16, and it was PACKED. Get her a turkey drumstick and have a blast. Quite a few of the wedding guests said they were going back to partake in the festivities. Enjoy.

Globals still holding serve on Sunday first legit cold press of the season. When looping back over last few runs, it may be a tad deeper fro yesterdays runs.

As I enjoy the long lead stuff heading into winter (ENSO thread is a great source of ideas/input from some really talented gurus). They/some disagree and think it may be aoa peak. What does that mean to us....not sure yet, but this looks (below graphic copied from Tip), to be headed to a basin wide Nino and not just East based. Just another theory being tossed around in "our" circles. Unfortunatley the typical x/y correlations also may not apply or hold as much value, as our base state is one that we've not had much data sampling to match up to wrt the warming of mother earth. Time will tell.

I'm the guy who doesnt wash his team jersey UNTIL they lose, so I'm right w/ ya.

Sunday looks like the core of the cold, and this coupled with this would be the catalyst for my first flakes suggestion. Other globals not as deep wrt 850's, but again, I'd say Allegheny plateau and north into NYS could have a brief window for some mashed taters w/ Sunday dinner.

shusshhh you. bad voodo

pic for those interested.

One thing seems to be holding for the weekend and into next week... we are going to enter our first legit period of cool/colder weather. The theme of that ULL sitting above us for a few days looks to deliver a colder period, and would not surprise me to hear the "first flakes flyin" posts for some in the NE/lakes region. VERY marginal temps, but elevations can work their magic.

I was on road much of yesterday seeing clients, and it too was toasty, but I enjoyed it all the same.

I'll go out on a limb w/ ya as my big prediction is that KLNS will get more snow than last year.... (.9'' )

What dataset is that based off of?? Dont answer....we already know.

Nah, there are far more of us than this site will ever acknowledge. In many regards, I feel much the same as you pal. In our forum, you just happen to be in the midst of some semi intelligent weenies that are like me and doing electrical projects....just know enough to be dangerous.

are you a paid troll..... or just here for the lol's

#2 sounds more appropriate of late.

as I suggested, Google it and pick the def that fits best for ya. oh and.....lol

yeah that (like most things) is found in a 5 second search of it on google. Its totally appropriate no matter how his feelings get hurt. So glad he's here to keep things straight though..... waits for the .....lol