pasnownut

WAA ahead of next system is the culprit and why some parts of state were seeing flakes this am. Been showing up on mesos for a while now.

and if anyone thinks that ground isnt frozen, come take a snowmobile ride with me. Need fillings replaced in all my teeth from last night. Im telling ya, it was frozen tundra...like rock. Im just gonna use an easy analogy to further my point.....hockey rink Ok, back to weather and Euro snow maps on deck

You do have frozen ground underneath, so I'd take that bet. That's something we've not had in well.....like..... forever

and FWIW, I am gaining more trust in GFS Op, as its been pretty good IMO of late. That said, next weeks warmup will include 2 additional mixed/snow events for northers. Go look at snow map (I look for frozen potential, not for snow numbers in situ's like this). Not sure I trust it that much, but stoudt HPs show up at the right time in eastern Canada to help w/ CAD in CTP.

and fwiw, it woudnt surprise if we dry up a bit at HH or 0z's. It happens and is something I'm personally waiting for. As I've already ovestated....snow on snow. I'm good. Stickin w/ my guess of 2-4 and will hope for coastal pop to be delayed for nice crowd pleasing light event tomorrow.

I'm enacting weenie rule #3 and tossing merely on the grounds that i don't like what it shows.

coastal sounds like its the only real rug tugger for us. I'm hoping for SLP in WVA to hold together as long as possible (based on progressive flow aloft and lack of trough in east, but thats wishcasting. Coastal is largely a miss for most...even us far easters in CTP land

Disco already mentions this...albeit brief, that 1047hp might cause a pause in the warm that will eventually ensue.

you speak... they listen

WAA so often does this. Even if some is virga, still gets the juices flowin

Thanks for sharing bud. Looks like you dropped a dookie on Adams County line. lol

I forgot to look, but when my wife went out to start her car, and came in, I asked "is it cold".... Her reply....."this is bullshit". Only reading I got for ya this morning.

but to bubbles point, temps are cold, but not THAT cold. At height of storm (ish), here are 700s. Not supportive of 20:1 IMO. 12-14 as he suggested is more reasonable. Edit: Norther westers may get backside fluff factor, but not round CTP IMO.

smart minds think alike and was literally what I thought when I read that.

Was thinking about that the other day. Being that its a sunday game and flow is outta NW, Buffalo proper would just be diggin out, and not snowin

Nice to see you jumping right back in w/ a cannonball..... Good to see you back bro.

I'll bring the snowmobile straight down rt 30 with shovel bungie corded to back seat. I'll take care of ya old man. Hope you feel better soon.

It really is a nice run and nice to see dryslot worries diminish as coastal takes over. Just a nice clean handoff of sorts. Prob helps that its a 1006mb SLP and not 980's as that would dryslot the hell outta us me thinks.

20:1 sheesh. That MIGHT be a tad much me thinks...but if so, thats what ya call snow bomb

And it happens plenty. This is just a good reminder that as I semi jokingly called it model watching before bed last night, it is easy to sometimes get lost in the trees while looking for the forest...if ya know what I mean. Not for a second was I thumping my chest....just sitting back and watching things evolve without getttin too whacked out between 1-3 vs 2-4". Something is gonna happen and that has not changed for days. Models are doing what they often do...thats all I'm sayin. None of us here are good enough to fret about the details (except red taggers). Its been fun to watch evolve and let the chips fall where they may.

Crowd pleaser right there. I'll even approve for @Atomixwxon his behalf while he's still on "vacation".

ebbs and flows of models still gets us every time. Ya'd think our old asses would know better...and just when we think we do... Thats the fun of being a bunch of weenies....we dont get paid (and dont need to act like we get paid) to know better. We can just chat and have fun with it. (well thats how I feel anyway).

Nice to see overnighters holdin on to another event for Friday. Getting close enough that the carpet might get tugged on, but it shouldnt get ripped out from under us. 2-4 on top of earlier week event makes for an awesome week, as no matter the end result....its snow on snow. Happy Pre Snowy Friday to all.

was out on snowmobiles w/ son tonight. Basically burnt some OLD gas out and put some fresh in for weekend. First time in almost 2 years since we've been able to ride down here. Was bony as hell in plowed fields, but hoping we take care of that this weekend. Decent amount of other tracks, so I guess we weren't the only ones anxious to ride. Have fun model watchin all, I'm headed to bed.

looks notably better wrt spacing and qpf field. Crowd pleaser for many (of course w/ normal adjustments made to said model bias)