pasnownut

Thats funny as hell. Enjoy the rest of your trip.

In your own "unique" way....you're doing just fine pal. Truth told, I'd LOVE to see you doing the weather for the Brits....

HP anchored over WVA is our saving grace from notably warmer temps here (for the next 48hrs anyway). As soon as it scoots, it takes the cold w/ it when winds turn SW .

I saw 27 on car thermo on way into office at 7am #winning :).

we just need the good 384hr maps to be showing at sub 240. Hoping that happens in the next week.

I hope the emergence into 8 continues due West...right off the chart. Low amp might not be enough help if AO/NAO are only slightly in our favor as tellies suggest twds Christmas week n beyond. Regardless, signals are starting to look somewhat better, and lets hope that trend continues.

Looking at the overnighers, the 0z GFS surface maps look more reasonable as to potential evolution for the 12/22 event. As I stated previously, the lack of cold in the eastern NH, is really throwing a big wrench into what could be a formidable event. I'm not trying to be a debbie, and yes, due to climo, there could be some surprises, as the storm has the ability to bring down/manufacture some/enough cold for some surprises. Long n short, its just not that cold in eastern canada, and as depicted, we'd need that. Again, I hope I'm wrong and look forward to all of you proving it. Like bubbles suggests, that is the fun for many of us. Trying to figure this stuff out. This one is rather telling IMO. Mind you its just a run, but sorta aligns w/ ens maps at 500mb, and thermally its just a hot enough mess.

gfs had the southern slider kinda look IMO. Regardless (cause it IS a word to me)...its a wonky evolution (based on 500's), but hey, I'll play along.

just looked and yeah, IF that can evolve as depictec, your suspicions would have a chance. closed off n column cools sufficiently to get er done....well....maybe. Hey, if I was a bit trigger happy on writing off the rest of the year, it wouldn't be the first time in my life I was wrong....it'd be the second.

MY wife and I were at PF Changs for grub and both saw it. She said, "did you get that much at work"? I said, not at my office. Dunno either.

Hey, if theres a chance, lets chat it up. Not sure about the evolution (162-168 a secondary pops due S of primary thats a beast at 989mb, but there is enough cold "close enough" to keep hope alive I guess. GFS Op 500"s has a 4 contour closed LP of NC coast, and GEFS has 1 contour similarly placed. GEPS is pos tilted and progressive scooter kinda look.

FYI, ABC 27 last night said Elizabethown recorded 2.3" yesterday. Dunno who he was chattin w/ but i didnt see that here. Barely a coating. @Mount Joy Snowman said he got 1". Sounds like pockets of good stuff might have happenend. I was just happy to see anafrontal snow.

Hope your trip was nice. Unhinged....sounds a little much IMO. (and the ones that are unhinged arent really from "in" here anyway). They just come in to kick up the dust. I had a response to DT's comments typed, and forgot to hit post, so it went poof when I came back to my puter. I'll just say that i agree w/ you. Dec was never really looking good, and it already exceeded expectations for some/many of us CTP'rs. If we go into Christmas like a lamb (sorta fitting eh??), the bang may happen as we turn the calendar. No reason for anyone to fret. Keep being nice, n santa may deliver the goods just a bit late. NBD.

Yeah just need to get through the next week to 10 days and hopefully the better looks start to have merit once things shuffle a bit further down the road.

warmish look on Ens guidance doesnt mean HOT. For timestamp of next chance, here is 2m temp anoms for conus. Find me some cold air....please n thx. My observations are mine and mine only...of course the weenie in me wants bubbles to be right - yes i typed that....tis the season.

While it does feel that way, I'd say its a byproduct of the regime we've been in w/ big fropas and trailing vorts trying to take advantage of antecedent cold. Hoping as the nino evolves (and the pattern starts to do the same, that more "normal" kinda storms are modelled. Personally I'm not down at all....as stated, its been normal to me so far, and has been looking warmish for a while (even though LR GFS Op runs show otherwise (look at the ridging from same timestamp 3 runs earlier FWIW). Hoping we keep the southern jet active and can get the Pac/NH to reshuffle to a bit less hostile look as the year end nears. Then we just need to time things a bit more right and who knows...

Should we use JB's delayed but not denied statement We've seen this far too many times and this shouldn't come as a surprise to most in here. If one objectively looks at 500mb maps on ENS guidance and source regions to see where our weather is coming from, one can come to reasonable conclusion that for the next 2 weeks its close the curtains and thats been the look for a while now. While we wait for the better signals (and as of a couple minutes ago, they are still decent as we get beyond next couple weeks), I think emotion also plays in at the time of year when Burle n Ives kinda Christmases run amuk in our snow loving skulls. Looks like we just need to chill n ride out the warmish period and hope that things continue to materialize and not get kicked down the calendar.

Congrats and agreed. Only diff moving forward it what I just posted, no real windows open for the next couple weeks, but for the fall and early winter as a whole...it's a WHOLE lot better than last year. Looks like winters just taking a pause for a little while. Is what it is and yeah, lets hope the 12z's tell me I'm off my rocker.

Looking beyond current cold shot, the flow becomes SSW and somewhat of an omega block gets established in the central parts of conus. Floods us w/ pacific air with no real troughing here in the east as we lead up to Christmas. 2m temp anomalies are just not looking good for the next 2 3weeks. Hoping there is a light at the end of the tunnel as we get to Christmas week and beyond.

while the pattern looks better in the coming weeks, heights associated w/ said pattern aren't anything to get jacked up about. All we can hope for is that once we get the flow right, we can get more chances as peak climo gets closer. That's been my worry while parsing over Ens guidance for the last week. 540's north of our region, no matter the flow....makes it challenging for sure. IF the SSW that is being discussed can take shape and grows in confidence, the lag time is typically 15-30 days, which could help us to get into some fun w/ colder source regions.

Dude, you don't have to answer to me. Your word is plenty good IMO. I'm not one of "those" guys. And even if you were embellishing a bit....the diff between 1/2" and 1" really shouldn't be anything to squabble over regarless.... Happy for you pal. Enjoy your microclimate

Congrats and welcome to the group. You guys were always in the catbird seat for this one. Enjoy.

You doubled me. I'd say 1/2" for my area. North of Lititz/Manheim was the big winner on my way into office. Frosting on trees and mountains to north had a pretty frosting as well. I was just pleasantly surprised to see anything, so my expectations were surpassed.

Congrats to all the winners. So because so many like to do the summer mow count. I'm doing a winter snow count. Thats 3 snowings for my house....so far and that already surpasses last winter #winning.