pasnownut

NAO heading + makes me skeptical of holding any colder scenarios (mind you mid week has enough neut/neg tilt to pull down backside fun for some), but this is where my heads been since I punted the next couple weeks last week. As always northers/westers can get backside action, but down here our goose is sorta cooked. If we can get MJO outta 6 and into 7, and couple that w/ -AO, we might have a better chance at scoring. +PNA w/ +NAO just says zonal pac origin air to me, but if AO can get notably -, that could put us in or close enough to the baroclinic zone to keep eyes on stuff.

Queues up Bryan Adams..."cuts like a knife". As suggested earlier, the reshuffle is gonna need to reshuffle before we can get something more than backdoor cold fronts....until then...meh. A tidbit of hope is that I was parsing over the Enso thread earlier to see how things have evolved in the last few weeks, and I'm not at all terrified by what I read. But with MJO heading into maritime phases, neg AO w/ slightly +pna still has a zonalish look to it. Oh and the NAO notably + doesnt help either. Just sharing what i see and what me thinks we have to look forward to in next couple weeks. Hoping I'm way off my rocker...

Sorry to hear this. NAM/HRRR both suggest that they should lessen as we approach noonish, but I'd bundle up for it nontheless. Thinking of you and your yours.

Looks like you mighta been more right for my neighborhood. Gusts to 32 Current obs here in Akron Partly Cloudy and Breezy 29°F -2°C Humidity 47% Wind Speed NW 23 G 32 mph Barometer 30.15 in (1021.6 mb) Dewpoint 11°F (-12°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Wind Chill 15°F (-9°C) Last update 6 Dec 7:53 am EST

They do have bite to them. Was surprised when I went out to get wood at 5am at how gusty it still was. Cams look like a winter wonderland for norther/westers. Tug looks good for Snodeo weekend as well (well its usually this weekend anyway).

Hope we can score a little backend lovin, cause if ENS and telles are correct, a zonalish flow that floods conus w/ pacific air looks like it will be taking over for the foreseeable future. Hoping we can change that before Santa gets here.

LMAO. Well played.

No worries....It'll change by 300-500 miles for HH.

so many responses come to mind..... I'll stop now

if your unit is five around... Impressive. We all tip our hat to you.

looked like that much of the time. If you have a chance to get up there..do it. Not sure how long it will last, and don't make the mistake I did last year thinking it would. I missed much of it as a result. Glad to be able to cash in on first snowy period for the northers/westers. Hopefully more to come.

Sure is. Great store (but seems to cater to the well off, as its a tad pricey, but as it's not a chain, they don't have the buying power that Wallys and the like do. If you want to support a great local store, check em out. Your wife would likely enjoy as well.

Thanks for the kind words. Was a winter wonderland. We busted our butts chasin em round the big woods. Lotsa miles logged on my GPS. Blessed to be able to get around like I do with those that I do it with. I do pretty well for an old(ish) fart. 3 harvested. Me - 8pt and doe (w/ muzzleloader and bullets similar to those used back in mid/late 1800's - as i like to make things more difficult on myself and try to incorporate some old era "tradtional" stuff w/ modern era. Brother - doe Hoping yall had nice holiday.

Nothing at all in Akron/Ephrata. On way into office early this AM, north of Lititz in the hamlet of Elm, was "big" winner with slightly more than cartopper, as some slush was evident on back roads. Here in etown, barely a dusting.

Finally back from my trip up north. Hi temp observed in a 5.5 day trip was 27 and low was 17. Arrived w/ 4" otg and snowed every day. We left w/ 6" otg, with 2-4" addl being called for w/ current event. Fantastic trip w/ fam/friends. Was nice to see/feel winter. Good luck to all today.

My old bones agree, but my youthful mind is with the others....

you summed it up rather perfectly. Thanks for chiming in. Good to hear from ya.

Agreed. That sure would open the window for bigger things. Lets hope thats where this heads and not back to pig ridge/WAR in the east. Been there...did that a plenty. Time for a new regime (for as long as we can anyway as long rangers suggest Dec is our time to score.) I'm headed off grid for the next week. Dont miss me too much yall.

looking at longer leads...GEPS is the one to root on as it holds the basic trough E ridge W look thru its entirety. GEFS only out to 300 has it, but looks like ridging trying to pop back in east. For how long, only time will tell.

Unfortunately we dont see the trough axis heading west. Were that to happin words like WOOF and BIG DOG (Henry Margusutyism) would come to mind, but the current long term look is for "clippers on roids or clipperfest". I've got no problem w/ a parade of clippers.

240 storm extrapolated on CMC has "best of show" prize for nooners. Get that look to hold and that would likely deliver.

Trough axis too far E so very NS dominant verbatim, so clippers is the path to victory for us. at times of relaxation is when bigger threats might show.... Like 12/13. GFS once again showing the incoming bombogenesis maximux but verbatim is likely to cut like a knife as troughing is gone. Plenty of time for changes better....or worse.

Well stated friend. My brother, my son and several of his pals that call me POPS as they are all "my kids" will join us. Blessed and thankful is an understatement. My son just informed my wife and I that we are going to be grandparents for the first time. Last night my aged father called to tell me his time afield and at the cabin is done, and wants me to take his rifle... talk about resonate and life going full circle. I cant bring mysef to do it cause its the end of an era, and so many owe him their love of the mountains and being together. He was the glue that held it together for oh so long....now i carry the torch. Life's full of balance and oh so bittersweet. Be thankful all. I sure am.

that lighthouse is the one we were at this summer. I may even have a pic of our crew standing there (not sure if my camera was used, or another guys.

Was in Eerie on motorcycle trip w/ my son and many father son combos this summer. Presquile Isle is a beaut. I'd rent the cabin in Mercer county once again if I was in the chase. Bout 30 miles off the lake. I'll be at the my cabin and if service allows, will share what we get, as you know where i am, I'm in a favored spot for the NC snowbelt region. We NEVER get anything close those closer to the lakes, but I'm happy to see flakes flyin, and after looking at early nooners....we should have a few inches OTG by Friday AM arrival. Will have beer in hand while plowing w/ UTV. It's the little things in life that make me thankful. This is one of them for me. Love plowing snow. Happy Thanksgiving to all.