pasnownut

In weather related news, the para holds out hope for next weeks chance for the I80 north crew. Ens guidance still shows broad trough in conus kinda look and no WAR. Not a stellar look, but not a toaster bath kinda deal either.

Yes. Increasing restrictions once again. Go buy wood now, because much will be used to board up businesses that are hanging on by a thread. Hell, California is now starting to wake up and see how bad restrictions are affecting their own economy. We can do this w/o draconian measures. I now own 5 masks....and hate every one of em but by and large were all good soldiers and doing our part.

last snippet for the day (until things look legit, i'm not "wasting" time like i used to sniffin out snow). Too much grief and agony. Getting too old for that. On that note, home team ensemble runs today are not hard on the eyes, and much more workable than we've seen for some time. PNA is ok, broad trough central and east. Not saying we score, but we may be close enough to put something on the board(s). Have a good one gang.

another positive takeaway is that we are seeing subtle shifts in a favorable direction for next week. Thats something we'll all agree on.....cept Tamaqua boy :).

you missed this one. Yes its only 1 frame that we lose thermals, as 850s crash in the next, but SE crew would turn/taint for sure. Regardless, we are parsing over an Op run in wayoutthereland, so not really worried, as we'll have 20 more looks to pick from in the next 10 days, but like i said, its close enough for me to push SOME house money in.

Not a cutter but looks like a killer B to me... Closed countours of the SE coast show Coastal transfer complete in following 2 frames and verbatim, saves the 80 north crew, but yeah, i'd take that early on and be happy for the northern crew. Sign here ___________Nut______________________

Antecedent is cool but not cold. 850's not for SE 1/3 where most precip falls. That's why the frozen will be a thin stripe on NW periphery of qpf field until it gets further north through NNJ and into NE where it can get into colder airmass. If this storm happened in January, seeing the panels as they are on 12z's home team models, I'd be moderately giddy down here. Its early in the season and we're still cooling off in the N Hemisphere. That's my take anyway. Like I stated yesterday, elevation will likely have a few surprises on that NW side. Allentown to Poconos still look like best spots in our region to me.

lol. I had a confused icon on your post....only to take it off as I totally forgot about todays game. Dont blame me.....blame 2020....

Yeah thats what I meant by closer but not there yet. Thermals I 80 N were marginally better but verbatim it'd be a rather thin stripe of snow on NW precip shield and elevation driven at that. Its only a couple moves away from eastern half of state seeing a decent event.....wet or white. on the other hand, its also only a couple moves away from smokin cirrus if cold press shunts it OTS, or, we get a jump NW w/ SLP and were all soakin wet w/ MAYBE slush bombs if dynamics get there. ULL did seem a little better wrt phase, so who knows....maybe momma N gonna show us some love from above in the craptastic 2020.

Good to see you again bud. Cant wait to turn the calendar eh??

and furthermore, 12/11-12 shows my point from yesterday about the see saw look. Cutting to Illinois doesn't inspire a ton of hope about pattern locking in in the long range, but maybe that's just setting the table for beyond (just remember the good looks that we've struggled to see materialize - so proceed w/ much caution). Plenty of time for corrections (if the pattern that the ens guidance seems to be trending towards as we approach mid December.

12z GFS says Saturday looks better w mslp and thermals, but verbatim, still a closer miss...:). GFS suite 12z new vs 0z para starting to have more similarities in progression anyway. If I lived in NEPA, I'd be moderately intrigued. That's just a 10 second glance, so troll me if needed.

car and mulch topper in Lititz/Elm area on way to work.

Then ignore them and look at typical tellies,incidies,base state, catapillars, squirrels, nuts and all of the stuff we used to and go from there. Thats not a dig, thats just trying to keep it fun.

Well stated.

If one looks at ens guidance nothings over. Some just need to take a break. Its old.

Yeah, peeps need to forget the unicorn run that shows mega hits and realize that it's a shift in the regime that we can only chase in LR guidance. The shift is real, and that's all we can ask for at this juncture.

Id take null vs strong 6 in a heartbeat.....just sayin.

I feel the same way. I enjoy winter and the look of it. Snow falling is best, but as long as it sticks around...I can get over infrequent snows. Looking forward to this upcoming period and glad to see it growing legs.

and too much attention to the bong..........

I couldnt agree more.....but some will see the rain and call it just another way to fail.... we all know who they are J I

Verbatim you see how we can still manage to lose even though things are "better". Reminder that while it probably verifies (even though i dont believe it)....its an Op run at 10 days out.

Is this YOUR call............ I'm just playing around w/ yall. We all just need to keep it real as we see better days ahead, but one needs to proceed w/ caution, cause were always 1 indice away from crappin the bed....

You got called out for being arrogant not for being correct. Nice call for this one...if it verifies. Noone likes a no it all, and in this game....coming off like one is really a dangerous way to play. Ask DT.

Yup. Uptick in activity and players realigning is all most rational weenies are looking at right now. Smh