pasnownut

In my mind its the "transitional" areas that I'd agree may struggle on TT, but in defense of my point, the Pivotal map you posted was underdone in the northern tier as well. That's not an argument, that's just something to point out regarding the usefulness/accuracy of the NAM suite. As we rode all over western tioga, southern/mid potter, i can tell you 4" was rather common, with some areas in excess.

Good points. I would add that due to the changing envirnment, analogs and LR indicators have seemed to be of less use in the last 2 years. I'm hoping its just a couple of anomalous years, and not a trend, but something that raises an eyebrow. To your point though, they all can change rather abruptly, and in my mind, Feb/Mar is the new prime time for snow as winter has matured, and what cold we have is typically at a maximum. Unfortunately we dont get to "push" winter further into March, but it does seem to be the time when its "easiest". Hope that makes sense.

I know the TT algorythm is whacked, and typically divide by 2. It didn't do poorly in the northwoods last week. It was rather close north of 80-6 corridor. The 7 is basically over my cabin. We got 7" on the button on top and 5-6 in the valleys. Eyeballing on the way up. Elysburg 1", Danville about the same, Wspt 2", and from Tioga border (liberty exit and further up, 4". Not a bust in my book.

Just for fun....

Have any of you even looked at the short range models lately? Im confused, as they did pretty well last week and now advertise a CTP event tomorrow (mind you not a big one, but its something)...and if correct, someone in the LSV gets your 5" tomorrow. While I realize the doom and gloom...and no endless weeks of winter (like I want). Snow is still snow. I'll also add that someones gonna bust bad, as my CTP forecast for Akron is rain and 53, and 12z come in looking like below??

No problem. I’d add Montague (for love of snow) Brantingham (picturesque) Old Forge (lots to do) Lake Placid (former Olympic venues and great winter town. (we are going to soon after doing research).

I thought the same. It was misleading (although ugly for sure)

seems rather fitting.

an example of the hype train that I'm talking about. https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html Yes....I HATE hyperbole... Signed, Realist and btw, this realist knows that with the lack of the "normal" (chat about winter), I cant argue for a second that this winter sucks.....so far, and may straight into spring. 6 legit weeks left and if we found a way to backload the hell outta what's left, I'm betting there would be little chat about it...other then the "i hate it crowd". Hope my point is understood.

But it doesnt.... While its factual to date....its just jumping on the hype/click train. To have a balanced approach it should also state that of late most of our "winter" (term used loosely) have been backloaded...but that detracts from the hype.

18zs seemed to have followed seasonal progression and came NW w/ LP. Thought 500's didnt have a big cutter feel to them as the progressive flow as has been the norm ... but same old wash rinse repeat. Ughh

Yeah this is the next one to watch and verbatim, it dissects the state from SW to NE. I little wiggle the wrong way and were in trouble, but a little wiggle the other way and you may have your VDay plans changed to snowchasin w/ your sweetie.

I dont think you'll need a plane. Tug Hill has 2' on the ground, and looking at recent runs, says Northeast is in the game for a couple opps at nice snow. Maybe just s nice road trip instead. Hope you get to enjoy it as well. Nut

Nut had a fantastic weekend in Tioga/Potter. Lots of snow (10" at cabin 3" from prior and 7" from Thursday night/Friday), and 5-7" in valley around Gaines/Galeton/Germania. We did 181 miles and saw a decent amount of sled traffic. Snow line was basically IPT and north on way up Friday. We got 1 to 1.5" additional through Saturday evening till it tapered off. Hearing reports of 1-2" additonal last evening before transition to rain. If anyone wants to see pics and is on Fbook, check out Pa Grand Canyon Snowmobile club. I am webmaster and do the updates on FBook w/ another guy. You'll see some info I posted for trail conditions. You can also check out our web page for cameras of various locations, as I'm sure some may be scratching heads as to there being any snow in this horrid winter....but there is a little bit in norther tier.

7” at cabin. 10” on the ground.

Been watching this one for a while and think the bolded part has a good shot at verifying. Gut says you can add Tioga to Bradford counties as they may be big winners in northwoods, as deform bands have best shot at cranking there. Also think this has heartbreak written on if for those just east of the r/s line. I'll let you know what we got when i get home (or will post pics if i can).

Well stated.

If one looks at ens guidance nothings over. Some just need to take a break. Its old.

Yeah, peeps need to forget the unicorn run that shows mega hits and realize that it's a shift in the regime that we can only chase in LR guidance. The shift is real, and that's all we can ask for at this juncture.

Id take null vs strong 6 in a heartbeat.....just sayin.

I feel the same way. I enjoy winter and the look of it. Snow falling is best, but as long as it sticks around...I can get over infrequent snows. Looking forward to this upcoming period and glad to see it growing legs.

and too much attention to the bong..........

I couldnt agree more.....but some will see the rain and call it just another way to fail.... we all know who they are J I

Verbatim you see how we can still manage to lose even though things are "better". Reminder that while it probably verifies (even though i dont believe it)....its an Op run at 10 days out.

Is this YOUR call............ I'm just playing around w/ yall. We all just need to keep it real as we see better days ahead, but one needs to proceed w/ caution, cause were always 1 indice away from crappin the bed....